Wednesday, May 21, 2014
Analysis at 2pm, suggests that yesterday's LOW pressure system over E,E-central Bay 92B has deepened further and now it's a Depression.
Pressure around 1000mb.
The system is almost stagnant and located over E Bay near to North Andaman Islands.
Yesterday's low-level circulation over S,S-S-E Arabian sea persists, both the systems are making way for good cross equatorial winds and pushing Monsoon into S,central Maldives island group.
1pm, JTWC has issued a Cyclone formation alert.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 91.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 91.4E, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 210454Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN ORGANIZING SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 210357Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WITH WEAKER WINDS (15 TO 20 KNOT) OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATES IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERARE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS) OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE AND IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
2:30pm, Satellite Visible shot shows Convective activity over its S,W,S-W quadrant and not greatly organized. T showers seen popping over Kerala W-ghats, W,N-W Tamilnadu as well.
Models suggest a further deepening of 92B into Deep Depression and a slow drift in N-E direction towards Myanmar coast in next 36hrs. And then a drift towards N Bay on 24-May and towards Odisha coast on 25-May.
In inland India, today a low-level S-W tilted trough from N Bengal to S-S-E Arabian sea is seen.
During next 24hrs, this North-South trough is expected to drift along to S-E coast of India upto N Tamilnadu.
Windy from N-W is expected along S Andhra, N,N-E Tamilnadu, Chennai on 22,23-May.
Rainfall alert ::
Till late-evening of 22-May, T showers expected over N,central,W-ghats Kerala, S,S-W,central Karnataka, N,N-W,N-central, N-E,central-coast Tamilnadu.
S,central coast Kerala and S tip Tamilnadu can expect showers from Sea around evening and into midnight of 22-May
One T shower may push into S,S-W,N-W suburbs of Chennai on today, 22-May.
Monsoon is expected to push into S,W coast Srilanka on 23/24-May.
#Chennai - 1:15pm, Temperature is 39 C (feels like 40 C). Hint of Sea breeze now !