The SWM has started withdrawing from Western and Central Pakistan.
The trough in the extreme North of Pakistan is "pushing" down , and the resultant WD is causing the seasonal low to weaken and elongate, that is concentrated regions are not seen. North Pakistan continues to get rains with Islamabad getting 30 mms today.
Possibly, complete Monsoon withdrawal parameters may develop by Tuesday over entire Pakistan.
BB-11 is hovering in the UP region as a weak system. At the most, we can say it being embedded in the Monsoon Axis, is keeping active precipitation along the axis.
Rainfall is persisting along the axis line in North MP and adjoining UP.
As the system fizzles out by Saturday, rainfall will be shifted to the Eastern end of the axis.
The western end of the monsoon axis is basically dry and has seen the SWM withdrawal commence.
Coastal Sindh region may still see some very scattered light showers on Saturday...may dry up after Sunday. West winds prevail.
Now, an UAC in the Southern Sri Lanka region is going to bring dry weather for Chennai in the next 2 days. Yes...dry weather. As the system moves Westwards and weakens in the Arabian Sea, we will see a rush of North winds into the system along the west coast, and a rush of south/south -west winds along the East (TN) coast.
Hence, spent winds will bring dry and windy (South/South-West winds) conditions to Chennai and TN and moist winds will bring wet and North winds to Kerala.
This also forms a weak perpendicular line of wind discontinuity in the Interior Southern Peninsula, South of 12N.
Thunder showers may be expected along this line in the interiors of southern Karnataka and parts of Western TN. Kerala gets the double benefit of precipitation.
From Vagaries
The trough in the extreme North of Pakistan is "pushing" down , and the resultant WD is causing the seasonal low to weaken and elongate, that is concentrated regions are not seen. North Pakistan continues to get rains with Islamabad getting 30 mms today.
Possibly, complete Monsoon withdrawal parameters may develop by Tuesday over entire Pakistan.
BB-11 is hovering in the UP region as a weak system. At the most, we can say it being embedded in the Monsoon Axis, is keeping active precipitation along the axis.
Rainfall is persisting along the axis line in North MP and adjoining UP.
As the system fizzles out by Saturday, rainfall will be shifted to the Eastern end of the axis.
The western end of the monsoon axis is basically dry and has seen the SWM withdrawal commence.
Coastal Sindh region may still see some very scattered light showers on Saturday...may dry up after Sunday. West winds prevail.
Now, an UAC in the Southern Sri Lanka region is going to bring dry weather for Chennai in the next 2 days. Yes...dry weather. As the system moves Westwards and weakens in the Arabian Sea, we will see a rush of North winds into the system along the west coast, and a rush of south/south -west winds along the East (TN) coast.
Hence, spent winds will bring dry and windy (South/South-West winds) conditions to Chennai and TN and moist winds will bring wet and North winds to Kerala.
This also forms a weak perpendicular line of wind discontinuity in the Interior Southern Peninsula, South of 12N.
Thunder showers may be expected along this line in the interiors of southern Karnataka and parts of Western TN. Kerala gets the double benefit of precipitation.
From Vagaries
