Thursday, October 29, 2009
A low pressure formation seen by GFS model near East of Srilanka on 1-Nov-09
And on 2-Nov-09, it becomes more dense ..
Around 4-Nov-09, the system is seen crashing into Cauvery delta zone (where Cyclone Nisha-2008, crashed).. but this is going to be a Depression at the maximum according to latest GFS models... this might change.
From 3-Nov to 7-Nov-09 very heavy showers forecast all along the Tamilnadu coast.
Northeast monsoon rains commenced over Tamil Nadu and adjoining parts of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Kerala.
Northeast monsoon has been active over Coastal Tamil Nadu.
Rainfall occurred at most places over Coastal Tamil Nadu and at a few places over Interior Tamil Nadu, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka and Kerala. Isolated rainfall occurred over Lakshadweep, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema. Mainly dry weather prevailed over Telangana. Dry weather prevailed over North Interior Karnataka.
Kollidam (Nagapattinam dt) recorded a heavy rainfall of 7 Centimeters.
The other chief amounts of rainfall recorded in centimeters
Chengalpattu (Kanchipuram and Gingee (Villupuram dt) 6 each, Sriperumpudur (Kanchipuram dt), Cuddalore, Puducherry Airport, Tiruvarur and Sirkali (Nagapattinam dt) 5 each, Chennai, Uthiramerur (Kanchipuram dt), Cholavaram, Chembarambakkam and Tamaraipakkam (all Thiruvallur dt), Chidambaram (Cuddalore dt), Vanur (Villupuram dt), Muthupet (Thiruvarur dt), Ramanathapuram, Sathankulam (Tuticorin dt), Sathanur Dam (Tiruvannamalai dt) and Kodaikanal 4 each, Chennai Airport, Cheyyur (Kanchipuram dt), Kanchipuram, Tambaram, Thiruvallur, Parangipettai, Sethiyathope and Virudhachalam (both Cuddalore dt), Villupuram, Mayiladuthurai and Tarangambadi (both Nagapattinam dt), Vedaranyam, Ambasamuthiram (Tirunelveli dt), Kanyakumari, Arani and Vanthavasi (both Tiruvannamalai dt) and Pochampalli (Krishnagiri dt) 3 each, Anna University (Chennai dt), Maduranthagam (Kanchipuram dt), Ramakrishnarajupet (Thiruvallur dt), Kattumannarkoil (Cuddalore dt), Karaikal, Thiruthuraipoondi (Thiruvarur dt), Nagapattinam, Gandarvakottai (Pudukottai dt), Rameshwaram (Ramanathapuram dt), Tondi, Ayikudi, Nanguneri, Radhapuram and Sivagiri (all Thirunelveli dt), Srivaikuntam and Vilathikulam (both Tuticorin dt), Tuticorin, Mylaudi and Nagerkoil (both Kanyakumari dt), Cheyyar and Polur (both Thiruvannamalai dt), Tiruvannamalai, Tirupattur, Vellore, Barur (Krishnagiri dt), Omalur (Salem dt), Kangeyam (Erode dt), Tirumangalam (Madurai dt), Karaikudi and Tiruppuvanam (both Sivagangai dt), Quilandy (Kozhikode dt), Perumbavur (Ernakulam dt), Kottayam, Mulki (Dakshina Kannada dt), Agumbe, Sringeri (Chikmagalur dt), Chikmagalur, Tada (Nellore dt) Pakala (Chittoor dt) 2 each and DGP Office (Chennai dt), Ponneri (Thiruvallur dt), Tiruttani, Thozhudur (Cuddalore dt), Kallakurichi, Tindivanam, Tirukoilur and Ulundurpet (all Villupuram dt), Adiramapattinam, Orathanadu and Thiruvidaimaruthur (both Thanjavur dt), Mannargudi, Nannilam and Needamangalam (all Thiruvarur dt), Aranthangi (Pudukottai dt), Pamban, Sankarankoil (Thirunelveli dt), Palayamkottai, Kovilpatti, Ottapidaram and Tiruchendur (all Tuticorin dt), Boothapandy (Kanyakumari dt), Ambur, Arakonam, Gudiyatham and Melalathur (all Vellore dt), Harur and Pappireddipatti (both Dharmapuri dt), Krishnagiri, Uthangarai (Krishnagiri dt), Sankaridurg and Vazhapadi (both Salem dt), Udumalpet (Tiruppur dt), Karur Paramathi, Chittampatti, Peraiyur, Sholavandhan and Usilampatti (all Madurai dt), Madurai Airport, Theni, Chatrapatti and Palani (both Dindigul dt), Chittur (Palakkad dt), CIAL Kochi, Haripad (Alapuzha dt), Kozha and Kanjirapally (both Kottayam dt), Thiruvananthapuram, Neyyatinkara (Thiruvananthapuram dt), Aminidivi, Mangalore Airport, Puttur (Dakshina Kannada dt), Kamareddy and Ajjampura (both Chikmagalur dt), Hallimysore (Hassan dt), Sargur (Mysore dt), Srirangapatnam (Mandya dt), Tirupathi Airport, Srikalahasti, Sathyavedu and Thambalapalle (all Chittoor dt) and Chittoor 1 each.
Karwar and Ongole recorded the highest maximum temperature of 36 degree Celsius in the region.
Chennaiittes may have been tempted to scream aloud in joy for the city witnessed steady drizzle since last night.
But the joy seemed shortlived as the sky cleared this morning and the sun was out. And the Chennai Metrological Office seems to still hedge its bet on the monsoon.
After saying that the monsoon will set from today, the Met office today said that the 'monsoon will set in a couple of days'.
The brief spell of rain for the last couple of days were an indicator to it, they said.
Rain or thunder showers are likely to be expected in the areas of coastal Tamilnadu and Pondicherry and in one or two places of interior Tamilnadu too, said the officials.
By Thursday, increased moisture transport and strengthening wind speeds would help push up humidity to 100 per cent and trigger widespread rains all over coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
The familiar sight of traffic jam or potholes on the road after a decent spell of rain did not bother residents as they were waiting anxiously for this. Theye were in no mood to complain.
With several places reeling under acute water scarcity, it was obvious that northeast monsoon was their last hope.
Says Packiyaraj, an autodriver, 'From August, the weather turns breezy at least from the early evening, but this year you felt as though it is still summer. If the monsoon fails. the fate of the city would be doomed'.
Echoing the same is Gangadharan, an government employee, 'the heat was unbearable until a couple of days ago. Hopefully the coming days would fetch more rain for us. We were expecting heavy rain today. In contrast, it is slowly turning out to be a another hot day'.
The monsoon is important for Tamilnadu: 48 per cent of the State's annual rainfall of 945 mm is received during this season. As for the delayed onset, it is noted that since 1979 the onset has occurred in the second half of October on 16 occasions and in November four times. In the remaining 10 years it happened in the first half of October. But as on date, Tamilnadu has had 78 per cent deficit in rainfall for the month of October. Against the normal 155 mm, it received 35 mm.
A drought in India and typhoons in the Philippines have damaged large tracts of rice paddies, threatening to upset the fragile food market amid fears of shortages and riots, experts said Wednesday.
Agriculture Secretary Arthur Yap of the Philippines, the world's biggest rice importer, told an international rice conference the impact of the next "perfect storm" will be greatest on vulnerable countries like his, and the world's poor.
He proposed an international food reserve that will safeguard against wild fluctuations in food prices. When prices are down, producers can build stocks to halt further decreases, while consumers can turn to the reserves when prices are rocketing, Yap said.
"We are not very far off from possibly another rerun of 2008," he said. Last year's record-high price of rice and other staples led to riots in at least 30 countries, according to the World Food Program.
The biggest rice producers, Thailand and Vietnam, had curbed exports to protect domestic supply. In the Philippines, people formed long lines to buy low-quality rice at subsidized prices while traders were suspected of hoarding.
Rice is a staple for half of the world's population, a big chunk of them poor, Yap said.
India and Philippines are the two main drivers of the market, and rice traders are waiting to see if and how much they will import.
"I can tell you any panic reaction by any of the countries can easily flare up this market which is already in a very tight situation," said Samarendu Mohanty, a senior economist at the Philippine-based International Rice Research Institute. The institute has been trying to breed high-yielding rice varieties that can survive extreme weather.
The Philippines - which imports rice every year to cover a 10-percent domestic production shortfall - says it has lost at least 925,000 tons (840,000 metric tons) due to recent back-to-back storms.
Officials earlier said there will unlikely be need for more imports this year, but on Wednesday Yap refused to rule it out, saying the government will do "what we have to do to protect our people's food security."
While there is no official estimate yet of losses due to low rainfall in India, a drought of similar magnitude in 2002 lowered rice production in that country by 23.5 million tons (21 million metric tons), Mohanty said.
"So it is very likely the crop yield will be 20 million less than what we had last year," he added.
This year India's summer monsoon, vital for agriculture because of the rainfall it brings, was the weakest since 1972. In some parts of the country, however, floods also damaged crops.
And while India has sizable stocks, a large chunk of the reserve is earmarked for subsidies aimed at the poor and has not dampened local market prices, which have doubled in the last several months, he said.
Global rice production needs to grow around 1.2 percent to 1.5 percent a year to meet increasing demand from population growth.
Currently, growth is falling to less than 1 percent a year because of variety of factors, including water constraints, more land planted for crops used to produce biofuels, climate change and rising prices of fuel and fertilizer, Mohanty said.
There is a need to increase technological development to improve productivity even in unfavorable areas with seed varieties that are resilient against flood, drought, salinity and heat, he said.