In our archive, Normal Monsoon Forecast: Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), we predicted July the month of extreme uncertainty for the monsoon because of a negative IOD. More so as it is the month that accounts for nearly 33% of the SW Monsoon. Our model assumed a weak IOD maybe upto 4% deficiency for July.
But the Regional Institute for Global Change (RIGC) in Tokyo forecast now say that things could go much worse - almost total failure of the monsoon during July. If so, this is really bad news as next year we can expect another lean monsoon due to the weak El Niño event expected.