July rains could fail India, says Japanese model

In our archive, Normal Monsoon Forecast: Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), we predicted July the month of extreme uncertainty for the monsoon because of a negative IOD. More so as it is the month that accounts for nearly 33% of the SW Monsoon.  Our model assumed a weak IOD maybe upto 4% deficiency for July.

But the Regional Institute for Global Change (RIGC) in Tokyo forecast now say that things could go much worse - almost total failure of the monsoon during July.  If so, this is really bad news as next year we can expect another lean monsoon due to the weak El Niño event expected. 

Read more: http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.in/2012/04/july-rains-could-fail-india-says.html

Rule on monsoon forecasts to be eased

This is proving embarrassing. There actually exists a law prohibiting private agencies from forecasting the monsoon. This means that people like Rajesh Kapadia and me are law breakers as we published our monsoon forecasts! But there is good news. A change in a decade-old rule will allow private organizations in the country— and not just the India Meteorological Department (IMD)— to issue monsoon forecasts. Phew!

Read more: http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.in/2012/04/rule-on-monsoon-forecasts-to-be-eased.html

chennai - 4:10pm, temp. 34.0°C ... Sea breeze has set in from S-E ... temp. will go down in another 30 min

RT @saifarash: Clear skies nw Kozhikode 2pm,increasing clouds,chance for T shower at evening LIVE pic from my house http://t.co/6l3QWJzD

Some one asked, HOW "feels like" temperature is calculated?? Here it is... http://ow.ly/aizRE >>> http://ow.ly/aizS6

Normal Monsoon Forecast: Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Wild Card ... http://ow.ly/aizNi

Mumbai - 11:10am, temp. 31.0°C and feels like 40.7°C... WoW

chennai - 11:10am, 34.0°C and feels like 38 deg C

chennai - going to have 37 / 38 deg C for next 3 days with moderate humidity !

@bheemaupadhyaya >> bangalore - can expect 1 T.shower in next 3 days.. as isolated T.showers forecast for S, central. Karnataka till 19-Apr

RT @bheemaupadhyaya: @weatherofindia Bangalore is really hotter, any rain predictions for Bangalore? (11:34am)

Places which gets 5000 mm rainfall in a year & Wettest place in each state of India ... MUST read .. http://ow.ly/aiz3u

As a pre-cursor to next W.D .. T.showers will spread into W. India on 18-Apr and then will reach W.Kashmir on 20/21-Apr. http://ow.ly/i/zgqH

T.showers to move into Rajasthan, Gujarat, W. MP, W.Maharastra and mumbai ...from 18/19-Apr.. http://ow.ly/i/zgqb

More T.showers forecast for N,N-W India till Wednesday .. http://ow.ly/i/zgpM

On 15-Apr, highest maximum temperature of 42.5°C was recorded at Bramhapuri (Maharashtra)

Both N.Arabian sea & N.Bay Anti-cyclones to become strong and persist till 22-Apr and beyond.. http://ow.ly/i/zgpb

On 19-Apr, a weak circulation is expected over area Along Kanyakumari and S.Gulf Mannar .. more T.showers forecast.. http://ow.ly/i/zgoX

Like yesterday, Today also heavy moisture is lingering over Kerala & adjoining S.Tamilnadu ... More T.showers forecast. http://ow.ly/i/zgoK

10:30am, Sat. shot shows the clouds associated with E-S-E Bay circulation .. expected to move West . http://ow.ly/i/zgoj

RT @prudhvk: Raining here in kottayam thellakom. Enjoying smell of kerala rain in window :-) (9:50am)

RT @indianewsbot: Pleasant morning in Delhi, warm day ahead: http://t.co/hGnF8iFl

Today, a strong circulation has popped over E-S-E Bay near S.Andaman islands ... this is expected to move West.. http://ow.ly/i/zgno

RT @rajugana: Baroda 11.05am, Slight drop in temp yestday 38C. Today, Clear skies, Sunny, hot n humid. a pic http://t.co/Hu3cSCvz

RT @saifarash: Hot, Humid and Sunny here Kozhikode Malappuram 34°C FL40°C Kerala, view from my house 1.45pm,15-Apr http://t.co/Ba9pYzhH

RT @aknarendranath: @weatherofindia Clear skies, no winds, looks like summer (normal) weather is back. Will another WD interrupt this? YES