Latest analysis of yesterday's depression 92B reveals that it has weakened to a Well marked LOW and has slightly drifted in N-N-W direction during past 24hrs.
Now the pressure is around 1002mb.
At present the circulation persists from low to mid-levels and a weak one in upper(500hpa) levels tiled in S-W direction.
3:30pm, Satellite IR shows heavy convective activity over Central Bay... this is due to the mid,upper level circulation of 92B lies tilted in S-W direction over central Bay.
GFS model suggests that this circulation will persist for next 72hrs and drift West or W-N-W and come close to Odisha coast on Sunday, 25-May.
But WRF model expects 92B to deepen again and move in N-W direction and make landfall along South Bengal coast as Deep Depression on Sunday !
JTWC at 1pm has cancelled the Cyclone formation alert for 92B.
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BASED ON THE OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND AND CONSIDERING
THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT IF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RELAXES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO MEDIUM
Today, the inland North-South trough is seen from a low-level circulation over S-E Uttarpradesh, N-E Madhyapradesh and dipping south upto N-E,N-central Tamilnadu all along S-E coast of India.
This is why HOT DRY winds coming from N-W over Chennai and most of S,S-central Andhra, N,N-E Tamilnadu.
If 92B drifts West near to Odisha coast in next 48hrs, this N-S trough will slightly drift West and the inland circulation will be over Madhyapradesh on Sunday.
Rainfall alert ::
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Today, before midnight - scattered T showers expected for W-ghats Kerala, N,N-E,N-W,N-central Tamilnadu.
Some early morning rain may push into coast of S tip Tamilnadu.
Tomorrow - T showers again for S,central Kerala, W-ghats Kerala and into N-W,N,N-E,N-central Tamilnadu
Monsoon update ::
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Monsoon current continues to be strong all over Andaman Islands and the cross equatorial flow from Somali coast to South Srilanka is strong below the 5th parallel.
A low-level circulation is expected to pop over S Arabian sea on 26-May, this can act as a engine to drive Monsoon into S,central Kerala.
