Latest analysis of yesterday's depression 92B reveals that it has weakened to a Well marked LOW and has slightly drifted in N-N-W direction during past 24hrs.
Now the pressure is around 1002mb.
At present the circulation persists from low to mid-levels and a weak one in upper(500hpa) levels tiled in S-W direction.
3:30pm, Satellite IR shows heavy convective activity over Central Bay... this is due to the mid,upper level circulation of 92B lies tilted in S-W direction over central Bay.
GFS model suggests that this circulation will persist for next 72hrs and drift West or W-N-W and come close to Odisha coast on Sunday, 25-May.
But WRF model expects 92B to deepen again and move in N-W direction and make landfall along South Bengal coast as Deep Depression on Sunday !
JTWC at 1pm has cancelled the Cyclone formation alert for 92B.
BASED ON THE OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND AND CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT IF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RELAXES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM
Today, the inland North-South trough is seen from a low-level circulation over S-E Uttarpradesh, N-E Madhyapradesh and dipping south upto N-E,N-central Tamilnadu all along S-E coast of India.
This is why HOT DRY winds coming from N-W over Chennai and most of S,S-central Andhra, N,N-E Tamilnadu.
If 92B drifts West near to Odisha coast in next 48hrs, this N-S trough will slightly drift West and the inland circulation will be over Madhyapradesh on Sunday.
Rainfall alert ::
Today, before midnight - scattered T showers expected for W-ghats Kerala, N,N-E,N-W,N-central Tamilnadu.
Some early morning rain may push into coast of S tip Tamilnadu.
Tomorrow - T showers again for S,central Kerala, W-ghats Kerala and into N-W,N,N-E,N-central Tamilnadu
Monsoon update ::
Monsoon current continues to be strong all over Andaman Islands and the cross equatorial flow from Somali coast to South Srilanka is strong below the 5th parallel.
A low-level circulation is expected to pop over S Arabian sea on 26-May, this can act as a engine to drive Monsoon into S,central Kerala.