Friday, May 23, 2014

92B - Weakened to a LOW and drifted N-N-W


Latest analysis of yesterday's depression 92B reveals that it has weakened to a Well marked LOW and has slightly drifted in N-N-W direction during past 24hrs.
Now the pressure is around 1002mb.
At present the circulation persists from low to mid-levels and a weak one in upper(500hpa) levels tiled in S-W direction.

3:30pm, Satellite IR shows heavy convective activity over Central Bay... this is due to the mid,upper level circulation of 92B lies tilted in S-W direction over central Bay.

GFS model suggests that this circulation will persist for next 72hrs and drift West or W-N-W and come close to Odisha coast on Sunday, 25-May.

But WRF model expects 92B to deepen again and move in N-W direction and make landfall along South Bengal coast as Deep Depression on Sunday !

JTWC at 1pm has cancelled the Cyclone formation alert for 92B.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
BASED ON THE OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND AND CONSIDERING 
THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT IF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RELAXES OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED 
TO MEDIUM

Today, the inland North-South trough is seen from a low-level circulation over S-E Uttarpradesh, N-E Madhyapradesh and dipping south upto N-E,N-central Tamilnadu all along S-E coast of India.
This is why HOT DRY winds coming from N-W over Chennai and most of S,S-central Andhra, N,N-E Tamilnadu.
If 92B drifts West near to Odisha coast in next 48hrs, this N-S trough will slightly drift West and the inland circulation will be over Madhyapradesh on Sunday.

Rainfall alert ::
~~~~~~~~~~~~

Today, before midnight - scattered T showers expected for W-ghats Kerala, N,N-E,N-W,N-central Tamilnadu.
Some early morning rain may push into coast of S tip Tamilnadu.
Tomorrow - T showers again for S,central Kerala, W-ghats Kerala and into N-W,N,N-E,N-central Tamilnadu

Monsoon update ::
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Monsoon current continues to be strong all over Andaman Islands and the cross equatorial flow from Somali coast to South Srilanka is strong below the 5th parallel.
A low-level circulation is expected to pop over S Arabian sea on 26-May, this can act as a engine to drive Monsoon into S,central Kerala.

Hot story from India !


Temperature forecast for #India ..
this how its going to be during next 3 days.. check this chart ... http://ow.ly/i/5Fd7L 

Some of the stations in N-W India has started recording above 30 C as night temperature ... Bikaner = 30.9 C
Jaipur = 30.3 C

Super #hot 40s of 22-May...
Bikaner = 43.5 C
Agra = 42.9 C
Jaisalmer = 44.1C
Barmer = 44.8 C
Ahmedabad = 43C
Bankura = 44.3C
Nagpur = 44.2 C

... Jharsuguda = 43.7 C
Gulbarga = 41.2 C
Rentachintala = 45 C
Machilipatnam = 43.8 C
Ongole = 44 C (night temp = 32.4 C)

#HOT at 2:30pm today...
Nagpur Airport shows 47 C
Lucknow = 44 C
Hyderabad, Delhi, Varanasi = 43 C
Jaipur, Chennai, Patna, Jamshedpur = 42 C

#Chennai - Dry and #HOT above 40 C temperature to continue till Sunday !
Less T showers expected over most of Tamilnadu on today, tomorrow.
Isolated T showers expected over N,N-E,N-W,N-central zones.

Weather Instagram at May 23, 2014 at 02:20PM

#chennai - 2:15pm, #hot ... Hottest day of #2014 . feels 47C. #weather


from Instagram

Weather Instagram at May 23, 2014 at 12:10PM

#chennai - 11:45am, hot now and expected to touch 42 C again. #weather


from Instagram