Sunday, May 17, 2015
Monsoon Watch -4 Part II....Quantum Estimate for SWM..
If we take into account, that the ENSO is today is El Nino and "leaning" towards a stronger El-Nino phase by,say,July, then:
a) Till July, we can see slightly below normal rainfall and progress of the SWM in parts of Sub-Continent regions. Nino conditions in the Pacific Oceans will send a few "pulses" to create "in situ" systems in the Bay, and the first 2 months will see around 3/4 noteworthy systems traversing the Sub continent. WDs will be few, hence, we can expect a few systems to track towards Central and Northern India, resulting in good rains in the plains of N.India and Northern Pakistan regions..and fairly good above normal rains in Nepal.
During the Northern track of the system, the monsoon trough could be pulled far North into the Himalayas, and possibility of "short "break Monsoon in 3rd week of July or near around that time period.
Break monsoon situations, and winds bringing in moisture from the Bay (diverted to the NW directions) will result in excessive rainfall this season in Nepal, more so the Eastern regions. NE states of India will get continuous feeding from the Bay. (Cherrapunji/Mawsynram seems the likely candidate for the highest SWM rains).
Full Article in Vagaries
If we take into account, that the ENSO is today is El Nino and "leaning" towards a stronger El-Nino phase by,say,July, then:
a) Till July, we can see slightly below normal rainfall and progress of the SWM in parts of Sub-Continent regions. Nino conditions in the Pacific Oceans will send a few "pulses" to create "in situ" systems in the Bay, and the first 2 months will see around 3/4 noteworthy systems traversing the Sub continent. WDs will be few, hence, we can expect a few systems to track towards Central and Northern India, resulting in good rains in the plains of N.India and Northern Pakistan regions..and fairly good above normal rains in Nepal.
During the Northern track of the system, the monsoon trough could be pulled far North into the Himalayas, and possibility of "short "break Monsoon in 3rd week of July or near around that time period.
Break monsoon situations, and winds bringing in moisture from the Bay (diverted to the NW directions) will result in excessive rainfall this season in Nepal, more so the Eastern regions. NE states of India will get continuous feeding from the Bay. (Cherrapunji/Mawsynram seems the likely candidate for the highest SWM rains).
Full Article in Vagaries
SWM on set and deep south Mascarene High
** More sea erosion in east coast will be there and moderate rain in east coastal and immediately adjoining(west) areas in TN
*** Streams in eastern / western slopes too will get flash flood.
**** SWM onset may vary / or ?? delayed??
climatologicaly speaking, there were records of SUMMER rainfall and floods in TN.
******
Records depicting floods in River Vaigai When KALALAGAR is dipping in Vaigai,
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documentary evidence were there to depict animal migration towards eastern slops in Tamil nadu during such climatological conditions especially at foot hills of western guards in TN.
The towns names were derived from migration of elephants [KARIVALAMVANTHANALLUR]
[KARISULMANGALAM]
Chennai can touch its 1st 40C this week
#HOT days ahead for S-E India, Andhra, N,N-E,central Tamilnadu and #Chennai from 19-May... http://ow.ly/i/aQZt9
N,N-W,W,central,E India will continue to have day temps above 40 C during next 3 days.
#Chennai - #Hot days to start from 19-May. And can register a 40 C on Wednesday, 20-May.
Weather at May 17, 2015 at 04:22PM
Chennai - 4:10pm, cloudy and warm. Heavy T showers over W,SW from city drifting South. #weather
Weather at May 17, 2015 at 04:07PM
3:34pm, Dohnavur - raining in mountains and drizzle here. #weather
May 17, 2015 at 02:38PM
2pm, After two days sunshine it's again cloudy in Srinagar. Now loud thundering lightning and heavy rain with gusty winds. #iwm
Weather at May 17, 2015 at 01:36PM
9am, S Tamilnadu w-ghats. Heavy rain continues. Naraikadu records 66mm. #weather
May 17, 2015 at 01:30PM
Nagercoil - 1:25pm, almost nonstop heavy rain from yesterday evening. Till 8:30am rainfall was 112mm. #iwm
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