Where is North-East showers and Cyclone?? .. http://is.gd/4JgWT

Where is North-East showers and Cyclone??

After IMD announced that the North-east monsoon has set it over Tamilnadu and will increase in strength on 27-Oct-09... RAINS vanished almost all over Tamilnadu except for some isolated Thunder showers over interior and south Tamilnadu.
Where is North-East showers and Cyclone??
It's November now and we have not got the October quotta of Rain and not even a single LOW over Bay yet! and Not going to be one until 10-Nov-09 according to GFS models.
Certainly there are signs of Cyclone potential building up over south Bay.
Here's the Cyclone potential map... suggests a good energy formation south Bay along the 5th parallel.

and here's the Sea Surface Temperature Map.. it shows a HOT bed near East of Srilanka.

GFS models suggest a LOW pressure trough forming just along Eastern Srilanka on 2-Nov-09 will touch TN Delta coast and then travel all along the south-east coast and showers will reach upto Bangladesh coast on 7-Nov-09.

Rainfall amt on 30-Oct:: , Puducherry airport, Rameshwaram (Ramanathapuram dt), Coimbatore Airport, Tirupur, Erode, and Coonoor 3 CM.

Rainfall amt:: Sirkali (Nagapattinam dt) and Manimuthar (Tirunelveli dt) 4 cm

Very less rainfall recorded ALL over Tamilnadu on 30-Oct-09...

GFS predicts a LOW pressure trough traveling starting from North-east srilanka all along the East coast and goes upto Bangladesh .

GFS also predicts NO circulation over Bay till 7-Nov-09 ..

Latest GFS suggests NO rain for Chennai till night of 1-Nov-09.. Only after midnight of 3-Nov-09 we can expect showers again.

Chennai - Clear skies now 2:16pm with bright sun and mild temperature

NASA satellite shot of "India (Jaipur-ONGC) Oil Fire" .. http://ping.fm/DFGp8

Chennai - Now 12:34pm is getting clear after some cloud formations from East.

Bay over east and south-east Srilanka is very active and heavy rains continue along central and south coast of TN. http://ping.fm/CsIdB

RT @presssearch: 4th typhoon in month lashes sodden Philippines
(AP) http://bit.ly/1Mg1ta

Chennai - Clouds now moving in from East seems to have potential for a sharp shower or two.

Chennai - A super clear morning to start with... now 9::55am its cloudy with rain bearing clouds from East..

Chennai - Very less rain activity for Chennai till 2-Nov-09.. after that we'll receive medium widespread showers. http://yfrog.com/j44gwp

Eastern and North-east srilanka is in for heavy showers till 5-Nov from 1-Nov .. http://yfrog.com/j5f9sp

GFS suggests less rain activity for Chennai till 3-Nov-09... while Delta coast will get more rain till 5-Nov-09.

Satellite shows:: Central TN coast is receiving medium showers .. http://ping.fm/Mli1l .. Bay just East of Srilanka is active.