Monday, October 31, 2011
The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) project is an effort to resolve criticism of the current records of the Earth's surface temperatures by preparing an open database and analysis of these temperatures and temperature trends, to be available online, with all calculations, methods and results also to be freely available online.
Professor Richard Muller, a physicist, and his team at Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) promised to “resolve current criticism of the former temperature analyses, and to prepare an open record that will allow rapid response to further criticism or suggestions”. Because the BEST team was constituted by some sceptics as well, even many sceptics looked favourable at this attempt.A week ago, Muller claimed to the Wall Street Journal that the case for global warming scepticism was over. Thanks to research from his Berkeley Earth Surface Temperatures (BEST) project, Professor Muller stated confidently, we now know that the planet has warmed by almost one degree centigrade since 1950. What's more, he told the BBC's Today programme, there is no sign that this global warming has slowed down.But the joy of climate alarmists proved short lived and their smug was wiped out from their faces very fast. A report published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation includes a graph of world average temperatures over the past ten years, drawn from the BEST project’s own data published in its website.
Sunday, October 30, 2011
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 64.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 60.5E, APPROXIMATELY 540 NM EAST OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN, SCATTERED CONVECTION, MOSTLY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), THE LLCC REMAINS BROAD AND ELONGATED, YET WELL DEFINED AND EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON DEPRESSION. A 291318Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH SHALLOW AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE NORTH AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS IN A DIVERGENT REGION, SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE(05 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST PROVIDING AMPLE OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
Latest Satellite IR shot 12:30pm
COLA model suggests that "95A" will continue to travel in W-N-W direction into mouth of Gulf Aden on 1-Nov-2011
Another circulation will pop over S-E corner Arabian sea on 2-Nov... ALL these arabian sea systems are good N-E monsoon, for pulling in Bay moisture towards Tamilnadu coast.
Saturday, October 29, 2011
World Wildlife Fund (WWF) makes a remarkable statement:
“The glaciers supply 8.6 million cubic metres (303.6 million cubic feet) every year to Asian rivers, including the Yangtze and Yellow rivers in China, the Ganga in India, the Indus in Pakistan, the Brahmaputra in Bangladesh and Burma's Irrawaddy.”
Remarkable because to-date glaciologists have absolutely no idea how much water is contributed by mountain runoffs to downstream river users. No one really precisely knows how much is snow melt and how much ice (glacier) melt or how much monsoons contribute as runoffs to rivers like the Ganges.
These are not the only problems with the WWF hysteria. The major arguments against it are discussed below:
1. The operating assumption of global warmist argument is that glaciers are melting because global temperatures are rising which in turn is attributed to increased CO2 being pumped into the atmosphere as an offshoot of the industrial revolution. So higher the temperature, the more vulnerable glaciers are to melt and once they have completely melted, there would be no more water for our great rivers and their tributaries like the Ganga, Brahmaputra, Rabi; Chenab; Jhelum; Beas; Sutlej etc.
But history tells us that the cradle of Indian civilization 4,000 years ago was the Indus Valley watersheds of these same very rivers. Now if the retreat of the glaciers is only a recent phenomenon as global warming activists make them out to be, then where did the water for these rivers come from 4,000 years ago? The only way for that to happen is for the glaciers to have been in constant retreat even before the start of human history!
So what have we now? It’s clear that though glaciers are currently in retreat, industrial revolution and increase in C02 in the atmosphere logically do not seem to have anything to do with it.
If so, the bulk of the water has to come from somewhere and the only source that can provide such large amounts is the monsoons! The other complementary source to monsoons could be of course, seasonal snow melt.
Read more: http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.com/2011/10/busted-myth-himalayan-glacial-melt-will.html?spref=gr#close=1
Pressure : 1004mb
Satellite IR at 7am
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 64.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 64.5E, APPROXIMATELY 780 NM EAST OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA . ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN, SCATTERED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF A BROAD, SLIGHTLY ELONGATED, YET WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON DEPRESSION. A 280551Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS THE BROAD LLCC, WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH, AND LIGHTER 10 TO 15 KNOTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS IN A DIVERGENT REGION, SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, WITH AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST PROVIDING AMPLE OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE APPROXIMATELY 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
COLA GFS model suggests that "95A" may become as a Depression and move very slowly in N-N-W direction for next 24hrs.
Friday, October 28, 2011
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Renowned model - GFS is predicting two cyclone in either seas surrounding Indian peninsula. One each in Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.
Arabian Sea Cyclone expected near Pakistan coast on 3rd November
A Very Severe cyclone is expected near Tamil Nadu coast on 10th November.
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
Monday, October 24, 2011
Sunday, October 23, 2011
Saturday, October 22, 2011
The advent of the NEM has been delayed beyond our expectations this year.
Vagaries had predicted its advance by the 16th. on 1st October, taking into considerations the withdrawal of the SWM by the 12th etc. The SWM lingered on, and even today, on the 22nd, is still prevailing over Karnataka and T.N.
The Upper winds during the NEM across the Bay are in a clockwise direction.That is an anti-cyclone is formed. At a level of 500 mb, the centre of the anticyclone shifts to central
The normal Sea Level Pressure during the NEM is a large system of low pressure over the
-The general variations and fluctuations in intensity of this low pressure, governs the rainfall. When the trough is well defined, and the low is well marked, rainfall over the southern peninsula is good.
-During the NEM, an occasional burst of cold air from the Siberian High develops a low pressure sysytems over the Equatorial regions of the
Most of the NEM rains depend on depressions and cyclones from the Bay towards the East Coast of India.
The overall delayed actions, beyond forecast estimates, is mainly attributed to the stubborn SWM, and to some extent the weak MJO not "supporting" the fast formation of NEM currents in the Bay. Cooler SSTs are prevailing west of Java and
But, the upper winds are showing signs of "resigning" and changing. The Mascrene highs have lost their grip, and are weaker, and the Tibetan/Siberian High is taking shape ,though late .
In my last report on the La-Nina, we have discussed that La-Nina is "on the threshhold" of forming..not yet established.There has been little change from then, as atmospheric indicators continue to hover around La Niña thresholds.
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) strengthened over the past seven days, with a 30-day SOI value of +10.0 as on 16th October. Sustained SOI values above +8.0 can indicate La Niña events. Factors favour the formation of a La-Nina event within the next 30 days.
Anyway, the latest models show the MJO getting a bit stronger from next week (24th), and moving eastwards in the seas South of Sri Lanka, along the 8N line. Its only after 2nd November that the MJO is shown getting stronger (and more effective) in the entire Bay region.
Another system lies over the
Maharashtra: Ahmadnagar: 13.5c, Nasik: 14.5c, Pune: 15.6c, Mumbai S'Cruz: 21.6c.
New Delhi: 18.4c, Srinagar:5.2c.
Light snow recorded in Gulmarg (3.6 mms) with the minimum at -0.5c today. Pahalgam however has not received snow, and the low today was 1.4c. Leh was at -3.0c on Saturday morning.
Friday, October 21, 2011
Pakistan and adjoining Jammu & Kashmir
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
Monday, October 17, 2011
‘LOW' BY TUESDAY
“It really is time to assist Tuvalu and Tokelau to increase storage capacities and manage their resources sustainably, including more effective warnings for drier spells,” UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) head of policy John Harding said, referring to two of the region’s island States and territories.
“With climate change predictions pointing to more acute La Niñas in the futures, plans must also include assistance for communities that will be displaced if existing freshwater is not sufficient,” he added, referring to the weather pattern characterized by unusually cool ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific that can bring abnormal conditions to widely separate areas of the world, from floods to droughts to below- or above-normal temperatures.
On the positive side Mr. Harding noted that the strong correlation between drought and La Niña could be a blessing in disguise, since the phenomenon is increasingly predictable and climate experts can inform decision-makers weeks and even months in advance, allowing for increased storage or stockpiling of emergency supplies in advance of a crisis.
The UN Office of the Coordinator of Humanitarian Assistance (OCHA) has identified solar powered desalination units and improved rain catchment and water storage as longer-term mitigation measures against future droughts.
Tuvalu, a collection of far-flung atolls with a population of some 12,000, today began a three-week needs assessment of water, agriculture and health facilities. The most affected areas are the capital city of Funafuti, as well as Nukulaelae and Nanumaga. Australia is covering the fuel costs for the assessment of eight outer islands.
Also affected by the severe drought are Kiribati, with over 112,000 people, the Cook Islands, a self-governing democracy in free association with New Zealand with a population of about 12,000, and Tokelau, a New Zealand territory with about 1,500 inhabitants.
“The critical low levels of freshwater in Tuvalu and Tokelau are just further wake-up calls about the vulnerability of SIDS [small island developing States] to the threats posed by increasing demands on natural resources and development practices that are not sufficiently in tune with these emerging risks,” Mr. Harding said.
“Small island States such as Tuvalu and Tokelau have access to a finite amount of water, mainly from groundwater and rainfall. Managing these resources in the face of increased and diverse demand is a challenge that authorities now face on a daily basis.”
Tuvalu and Tokelau have declared a state of emergency and are receiving emergency assistance from the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, and Australia, New Zealand and the United States, including freshwater, water tanks, portable desalination units and personnel to operate the additional units and fix existing ones.
Many SIDS used the pulpit offered by the General Assembly’s annual general debate last month to call on the world to pay greater attention to their vulnerability to climate change, warning that the international community was not moving quickly enough to either mitigate the effects of the change or support the poorest countries as they tried to adapt. They stressed that sustainable development would not be possible as rising sea levels threatened to swamp them.
posted by one of our reader Viravanalluran
Sunday, October 16, 2011
Saturday, October 15, 2011
Friday, October 14, 2011
Thursday, October 13, 2011
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
|12.10.2011 / 0000 Z cloud imagery|
|12.10.2011:: 0000 Z upper wind|