Cyclone "Phet"... past 24hrs rainfall over Pakistan ... PDF ... http://ow.ly/d/3UA

Cyclone "Phet" .. All along thru the eyes of PAK-Met ... PDF ... http://ow.ly/d/3Uz

Cyclone History for Karachi

Let not the cyclone haunt us. Better scare it away. Away from our minds. But we still have to be mindful of the facts about cyclones. The facts however, remain that each year before the onset of monsoon (15 April to 15 July) and also after its withdrawal (15^th September to 15 December), there is always a distinct possibility of the cyclone storm to develop in the north Arabian Sea.

          The word “cyclone” is of Greek origin and means a “coil of snake”. No doubt, fully developed cyclone not only resemble the coil of the snake they have the venom of thousands of snakes as far as there killing capability is concerned. These giants kill in three ways-by coursing heavy to very heavy continues down pour leading to floods strong to very strong sustained winds, and tidal waves. The distinguishing property of the cyclonic storm is, however, the onslaught of tidal waves with often a company the storms along with strong sustained winds and torrential rain.

          Tropical cyclone are classified according to the maximum winds which a company them as indicated in the following.

          Depression – winds up to 33 Knots, Cyclonic Storm – winds from 34 to 47 Knots, Severe Tropical Strom – Winds from 48 to 63 Knots, Hurricane – winds of 64 Knots or more.

          The major killing factor is there for the tidal wave assisted by very strong winds as regards tidal waves possible coincidence of the time of passage of an expected cyclonic storm with high and low tide times and loner dates can appreciably add her decrees the actual heights of the tidal waves.

          This important factor is, therefore, given due consideration when forecasting the passage of the cyclonic storm into the costal areas.

          It is worthwhile to evaluate how great is the danger of cyclonic storm striking Karachi or other costal areas of Pakistan. Because of its very high population and industrial growth, Karachi merits special attentions. Although nobody except providence knows what fate awaits us, the changing natural processes and events do provide a clue to us. One of the parameter utilized by Meteorologist is the climatology or past records of weather events.

In this connection meteorological data about the cyclonic storms in the north Arabian sea is available for more then a century. During the last 100 years a number of cyclonic storms have struck Pakistan’s costal areas.

           The years involved were 1895, 1902, 1907, 1948, 1964 and 1985.

           The cyclonic storm in 1964 which actually enter the Indian coast did cause the great loss of life and property in Hyderabad and Tharparkar districts as it moved north east ward into south eastern areas of Sindh. It is strange that three cyclonic storms – two in the year 1902 (13^th May & 16^th June) and one in 1907 (6^th June) stuck the coast in the vicinity of Karachi during a short span of six year? The other two cyclonic storms in the years 1895 and 1984 struck the Mehran cost near Pasni and Jiwani respectively.

            The cyclonic storm in 1985 which moved was Karachi actually had weakened over the sea while still a few 100 Kilometers away south of Karachi. It did, however, cause concern and panic for Karachiites.         

          

            Cyclone Gonu 2007 , Super Cyclonic Storm Gonu is the strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Seaand is also the strongest named cyclone in the northern Indian Ocean. The second named tropical cyclone of the 2007 North Indian Ocean cyclone season, Gonu developed from a persistent area of convection in the eastern Arabian Sea on June 1. With a favorable upper-level environment and warm sea surface temperatures, it rapidly intensified to attain peak winds of 240 km/h (150 mph) on June 3. Gonu weakened after encountering dry air and cooler waters and early on June 6, it madelandfall on the eastern-most tip of Oman, becoming the strongest tropical cyclone to hit the Arabian Peninsula. It then turned northward into the Gulf of Oman, and dissipated on June 7 after making landfall in southern Iran.

The Yemyin 2007

On October 19  an area of low pressure which located to the south east of Salalah, Oman had intensified in to a tropical depression and was assigned the number ARB 02. On October 21  the system intensify into a Deep Depression while it lay 700 km south of Salalah, Oman, near the east coast of Somalia. It lost its strength while crossing the Gulf of Aden due to entry of dry air and land interaction as it passed close to the northeastern coast of Somalia. It later was downgraded to a Depression, named TC 03A by the JTWC. On October 24 it made landfall on the south-eastern coast of Yemen, and caused severe flooding, causing loss of 180 lives.

Taken from http://pakmet.com.pk/tcyclone-video/tcyclone.html

Pakistan - Cyclone "Phet" is over Pakistan now .. http://ow.ly/i/1Weh

Pakistan - Cyclone "Phet" .. 133 mm Rain in Masroor, 92mm in Faisal Base, 84mm in Saddar recorded at Karachi during last 24 hours

7:30pm, central Bay is very active .. http://ow.ly/i/1WdQ

Chennai - 7:30pm, is cloudy with medium high clouds... http://ow.ly/i/1WdQ ... Thunder activity forecast again after 1am

7:30pm, Heavy showers over S. Karnataka, Central and N. Tamilnadu .. http://ow.ly/i/1WdQ

7:30pm, Convective clouds can be seen all along Kerala coast.. http://ow.ly/i/1WdQ

7:30pm, Heavy showers over Bangladesh and S-E Bengal .. http://ow.ly/i/1WdQ

BBC model shows .. South-west monsoon will pickup strength over Kerala coast from 9-Jun-2010.. http://ow.ly/i/1WdM

Rainfall data of 5-Jun-2010... PDF ... http://ow.ly/d/3Uw

Rain map of 5-Jun, shows.. showers all along peninsula coastline and N-E states.. http://ow.ly/i/1Wdi

North east states getting heavy showers

North east getting battered on 5-Jun-2010

-------------------------------------------Passighat - 17cm
Tezpur - 8cm
Cherrapunji - 7cm
Agartala - 6cm
North Lakhimpur -5 cm

India toppers from 1.1.10 to 06.06.10

 ———————————–—————–

Cherrapunji 528 cm
Passighat 178 cm
Silchar 175 cm
Itanagar 129 cm
Dibrugarh 129 cm
Gangtok 127 cm
Dhubri 127 cm
North Lakhimpur 118 cm
Coochbehar 101 cm
Guwahati 99 cm
Lengpui 94 cm
Agartala 93cm

Cyclone "03 A - Phet" ...Update # 18.. Heavy rainfall over South Pakistan & Gujarat on Landfall now 7pm IST...
http://ow.ly/1UHau

RT @piyush_veere: Patna is 'dusty' today,no duststorm but slow winds with lot of mixed dust... WIERD CLIMATE !! ٩(●̮̮̃•̃)۶ (12:12pm)

Cyclone "03 A - Phet" ...Update # 18.. Heavy rainfall over Pakistan & Gujarat on Landfall

Making landfall now 7pm IST along Pakistan coast. 
Heavy cloud formation can be seen over South pakistan.
Slightly intensified before making landfall.


Jtwc warning
-------------------------

061500Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 68.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 20 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. PHET HAS MADE LANDFALL SOUTH OF 
KARACHI. A 1211Z METAR REPORT FROM KARACHI/JINNAH AIRPORT (OPKC) 
PUTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. 
THIS DIRECTION IMPLIES A POSITION EAST OF KARACHI. BETWEEN 1200Z AND 
1300Z THE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE NORTH AND HAVE EASED TO NEAR 25 
KNOTS. THIS ALSO CONFIRMS THAT THE SYSTEM IS PAST KARACHI (OR TO THE 
EAST OF 67.2E) AND IS WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER 
SOUTHERN PAKISTAN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER 
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF 
REGENERATION

JTWC path
----------------------

IMD warning
-----------------------------

ARB 02/2010/46                                                                                                 Dated: 06.06.2010

Time of issue: 1900 hours IST

Sub: Depression over northeast Arabian Sea, close to Pakistan coast.

            The depression over northeast Arabian Sea moved further eastwards and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 6^th June 2010 over northeast Arabian Sea near lat. 24.5⁰N and long. 67.0⁰E, very close to Pakistan coast, about 50 km south of Karachi(Pakistan) and 220 km northwest of Naliya (Kutch, Gujarat).

           

            The system would move east-northeastwards, cross Pakistan coast close to Karachi within a few hours and weaken gradually.

           

            Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls would occur over Kutch & north Gujarat region during next 12 hours and fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would occur over Rajasthan during next 24 hrs. Squally winds with speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting 60 kmph would occur along and off north Gujarat coast during next 12 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off north Gujarat coast and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea off this coast during next 12 hours.

Satellite shot at 5:30pm IST
---------------------------------------------

Mumbai: Intensity of Showers expected to increase  in Mumbai from Sunday evening. Occasional showers, some heavy till Monday evening. Maybe 15-20 mms of rain. These are not Monsoon showers but effect of Low over Gujarat/Rajasthan.  

From Tuesday thru Friday, rains in Mumbai will decrease again.

Chennai - Sharp showers now 11:46am over South Chennai... hearing distant thunder as well over S-E

Chennai - Sharp showers continue from 10:30am.

monsoon is will be more organized over Kerala from 9-Jun... after the Cyclone "Phet" effect... http://ow.ly/i/1VO1

Rainfall ... http://ow.ly/1UCaG

Cyclone "Phet" .. update 17... invisble, yet power packed... moving towards Pakistan and Gujarat.. http://ow.ly/1UCae

Cyclone "03 A" .. Update # 17 ... Invisible, yet power packed. Very near to Pakistan & Gujarat

JTWC warning
------------------------

060300Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 64.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
052140Z AMSU IMAGE CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN EXPOSED, BUT WELL-DEFINED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION 
SHEARED 200 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE 
CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 25 KNOTS (FT) TO 30 
KNOTS (CI). THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE 
051350Z WINDSAT IMAGE, WHICH INDICATED 35-40 KNOT GALES SURROUNDING 
THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS THE LLCC SATELLITE SIGNATURE. TC 03A HAS 
ACCELERATED EASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD 
TOWARD KARACHI. BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED SHALLOW LLCC, WINDSAT AND 
WARM CORE (05/12Z AMSU TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PLOT), THE SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN 35-40 KNOT INTENSITY UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL 
AFTER TAU 12. AVAILABLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, 
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL 
TRACKERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 16 FEET.

JTWC projected path
--------------------------------

IMD warning
--------------------------

ARB 02/2010/42                                                                                  Dated: 06.06.2010

Time of issue: 0130 hours IST

Sub: Cyclonic storm, ‘PHET’ weakened into a deep depression over northwest Arabian Sea.

            The cyclonic storm, “PHET” over northwest Arabian Sea off Makaran coast weakened into a deep depression and moved further eastwards and lay centred at 2330 hrs IST of yesterday, the 5^th June 2010 near lat. 24.5⁰N and long. 62.5⁰E, about 100 km southeast of Jiwani (Pakistan),  450 km west-southwest of Karachi (Pakistan) and 650 km west-northwest of Naliya (Kutch, Gujarat).

           

            The system would weaken gradually and move east-northeastwards and cross Pakistan coast near 66.0ºE by tomorrow, the 06 June 2010 night.

Fairly widespread rainfall would occur over Saurashtra & Kutch during next 24 hrs. Squally winds with speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting 60 kmph would occur along and off north Gujarat coast during next 12 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off north Gujarat coast and adjoining north Arabian Sea. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea off this coast.

Satellite shot at 6:30am IST
--------------------------------------------

Chennai - moreover from now on till august mid this will be the weather pattern & temperature will not cross the 40 deg C mark !!

Chennai - moisture content in Sea breeze. usually these showers will occur after 4pm and before 11pm. Very rarely it'll go into 3am. more...

Chennai - now that the monsoon current is over chennai these convective showers will occur every other day depending on current strength &

Chennai - some part of chennai got heavy thunder storm at around 1:30am ... due to S-W monsoon current & heat convection