Wednesday, November 05, 2014


A strong W.D system is nearing N,central Pakistan, will start affecting in next 6 hrs ... 
The W.D will start affecting Kashmir, Punjab, Himachal from evening, night of 6-Nov ...
The upcoming W.D is expected to last till Saturday morning over Kashmir and Himachal.

#Chennai - Today, it was DRY, bit cold and with high cloud cover .
Min temp today morning.
Airport = 21.4 C
IWM Polichalur = 21.7 C

Almost NO rain expected for most of Tamilnadu, Kerala, S Andhra and Chennai during next 2 days !
COLD morning, DRY day ahead!

Chance of Scattered showers for S Kerala and S-tip Tamilnadu during next 2 days !

91B - now a well marked LOW, Can it become a Cyclone ??

Analysis of 91B suggests that during past 12hrs it has intensified to Well marked LOW, with pressure around 1003mb. And showing signs of intensifying.
5pm, IR shows good convective activity around its location.

At present it is located over Central Bay.

GFS model suggests a Northerly movement (for 2 days) with NO great intensification beyond Depression and then make a N-W movement as a LOW pressure system and reach upto Odisha coast.

But NAVGEM model suggests a N-N-E movement for next 2 days, then weaken  and drift Westwards towards Andhra coast on 9-Nov !!

The wind shear along the System and North of it (around 20N) is HIGH, this'll not allow the system to intensify and sustain.