11pm, cyclone Nilam has strengthened and having a good core.. looks serious and slowly drifting N-W.. http://ow.ly/i/14Hr0
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
7:30pm, Cyclone Nilam, Pressure has deepened in last 2 hrs to 989mb and wind speed is now upto 80km/hr... http://ow.ly/i/14EeT
Cyclone Nilam - Small drift seen towards N-W in past 6hrs
5:30pm, Latest Satellite IR image .. shows that the Core is intact and Heavy convective activity seen again.
Pressure & Wind speed remains the same.
JTWC continues to predict a Central/North Tamilnadu landfall on evening of 31-Oct.
Pressure & Wind speed remains the same.
JTWC continues to predict a Central/North Tamilnadu landfall on evening of 31-Oct.
JTWC warning at 2:30pm IST
----------------------------------------------------
POSITION NEAR 9.3N 83.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) ALONG WITH A 300357Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A BROAD YET DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED AND SLIGHTLY DISPLACED CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A LARGE AREA OF FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MSI ANIMATION AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND DEMS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES CONTINUED MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE LLCC. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A LARGE SPREAD BUT ALL CONTINUALLY AGREE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF INDIA. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 AS IT MAKES LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 02B WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 AS IT SUCCUMBS TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND. LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 18 FEET.
RT @shaambalaji: RT @ReutersIndia: Cyclone warning halts port operations in Chennai http://t.co/US3JDg79
RT @onemangoadmi: Rains reduced but this is the condition in #tiruvottiyur @chennaiweather @weatherofindia http://t.co/frcSXjsn (5:24pm)
Now its Cyclone Nilam - Showing signs of moving N-W
1pm, Latest satellite visible shot shows that the core is still near N-E Srilanka coast.
Now it's named as Cyclone Nilam.
Pressure :: 993mb
Wind :: Upto 75 km/hr
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and intensified
th
NOGAPS model predicts a central & North Tamilnadu coast landfall on evening of 31-Oct
Now it's named as Cyclone Nilam.
Pressure :: 993mb
Wind :: Upto 75 km/hr
IMD warning at 11am IST
---------------------------------------------
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and intensified
into Cyclonic storm ‘NILAM’.It lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 30
th
October 2012 near latitude
9.0
0
N and longitude 82.0
0
E, about 500 km south-southeast of Chennai and 100 km east-northeast of
Trincomalee (Sri Lanka). The system would move northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and adjoining
south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nagapattinam and Nellore by 31
st
October, 2012 afternoon/evening.
NOGAPS model predicts a central & North Tamilnadu coast landfall on evening of 31-Oct
RT @iamkarthikd: RT @crvgalatta: Cyclone #nilam creates mega traffic jam in #chennai http://t.co/cPiEtGUw
"02B" - Almost a Cyclone to be named !
9am, Latest Satellite visible shot..
Situated around 500km S-E of Chennai
Pressure :: 993mb
Wind :: upto 75 km/hr
And expects it to move N-W towards central & North Tamilnadu coast in next 24hrs.
Situated around 500km S-E of Chennai
Pressure :: 993mb
Wind :: upto 75 km/hr
JTWC warning at 8:30am IST
---------------------------------------------
JTWC has relocated the present location of Cyclone / Deep depression.And expects it to move N-W towards central & North Tamilnadu coast in next 24hrs.
IMD warning at 9am IST
--------------------------------------------
Position of Deep Depression / Cyclone as by IMD at 5:30am IST
Deep Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Alert for North Tamil Nadu,
Puducherry and adjoining South Andhra Pradesh coasts
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at
0530 hours IST of today, the 30th October 2012 over southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 9.0
0N and longitude 82.00E, about 500 km south-southeast of Chennai and 100 km east-northeast of Trincomalee (SriLanka). The system would intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move northwestwards for some moretime and then move northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nagapattinam and Nellore by 31st October, 2012 afternoon/evening.
Cyclone "02B" - Will be named as Nilam
6:30am, Here's the latest Satellite visible shot of the System.
Position :: 8.8N-83.4E (still near N-E Srilanka)
Pressure :: 993mb
Wind :: around 75 km/hr
Position :: 8.8N-83.4E (still near N-E Srilanka)
Pressure :: 993mb
Wind :: around 75 km/hr
JTWC warning at 2:30am IST
-------------------------------------------
Predicts that the system will start to move N-W by morning and cross S-E,central Tamilnadu coast on noon of 31-Oct.
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