Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Tropical Cyclone 05A

It took a few days longer than had at first been forecast, but has happened--Tropical Cyclone 05A.
As seen on the latest infrared imagery...

...that is 05A along the 65th (East) meridian and the 10th (north) parallel. At the upper left the picture, there seems to be a name given for 05A: Bayarab.

The JTWC have rated 05A as a 40-knot (75-kph) tropical storm (as of 1200 hours GMT) with sluggish movement towards the west. The cyclone spent the first part of its life (which began Sunday) whirling in place.

Now that we have a defined weather system in TC 05A, the numerical forecasts have begin to close ranks about a consensus: that cyclone will track towards the west and northwest through the week. By the end of the week, 05A could land on the southeast mainland of Arabia, although a strike upon the island of Socotra (off NE Somalia) could happen Friday.

So a question remains open: how strong will 05A get? a hurricane? I do believe there is `room to grow` for 05A. It does have 28-29 degree water to work with. Then, too, are questions related to impact upon Arabia (southern Oman, eastern Yemen, anywhere else). Assuming a depression or tropical storm, it would go without saying that local excessive rain would be a threat. And scattered desert cloudbursts could arise from 05A`s moisture far inland.

--Recall (those who read regularly) the mention of a (elusive) Bay of Bengal cyclone. Thus far, no such thing is immanent. As of this writing, there is broad low pressure east of southern India, but not any hint of cyclone potential.

The Bay low has made for some torrential, flooding falls of rain over South East India. Foremost of the instances that I found on data was that of Nellore, southern Andhra Pradesh. Here, rainfall Sunday to Monday evening was 14.9 inches, or 377 mm. Earlier late-week rains boosted city rainfall to 18 inches. At Chennai, where rains of the North East Monsoon were slow to start, a weekend outburst left 171 mm, or 6.8 inches. This brought the city roughly two-thirds of its normal October rainfall.