Sunday, July 12, 2009
This came about as monsoon easterlies interacted with moisture-laden southwesterlies steered by an upper air cyclonic circulation sitting over west Madhya Pradesh.
This circulation is the remnant of a land-based ‘low’ that has been tracking westward over the last few days and in turn merged with the seasonal monsoon trough across northwest India, the plains and east India.HOLDS POTENTIAL
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Friday said that the trough lay extended from Bikaner, through Jaipur, Datia, Satna, Daltenganj and the Sagar Islands before dipping into east-central Bay of Bengal.
The upper air whirl still carried the punch to prolong the wet session over Gujarat with isolated heavy to very heavy rains being forecast for two more days, the IMD said.
Fairly widespread rainfall activity is likely along the west coast and also over Orissa during next two or three days.
The IMD has forecast rain or thundershowers at many places over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand, east Rajasthan and at a few places over Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, west Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.MORE SHOWERS
Over central India, rain or thundershowers have been forecast at many places over west Madhya Pradesh during the next 24 hours. A few places over Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and east Madhya Pradesh may also witness varying spells of rains.
Towards the east, rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over Orissa, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Sikkim. Thundershowers have been forecast at a few places over Bihar and in the North-East.
A warning valid for the next two days said heavy to very heavy rainfall are likely at a few places over Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka and Gujarat.
The three days up to Wednesday (July 15) would see fairly widespread rainfall over the west coast, east India and the North-Eastern.‘LOW’ PROSPECTS
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts may have downgraded the prospects of the building ‘low’ over northwest Bay of Bengal around Sunday.
The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services, though, has a different take. It sees the system crossing the Andhra Pradesh coast and travelling north-northwest.
In the process, the rain belt is shown as being dragged once again into central India and, significantly, into northwest India as well.
The CPC forecast until July 20 shows rains breaking out over entire Madhya Pradesh, adjoining Gujarat and Rajasthan and west Uttar Pradesh, apart from the west coast. Rains are less represented for east Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.ACTIVE IN SOUTH
Meanwhile, in the peninsular south, the monsoon has been active over Telangana, coastal and south interior Karnataka during the 24 hours ending Friday morning.
Rainfall occurred at most places over coastal Karnataka, at many places over Kerala, Telangana and interior Karnataka and over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema.
Isolated rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu and Lakshadweep, too, an update by the Chennai Met Centre said.
Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at most places over coastal Karnataka; Kerala, interior Karnataka and Telangana; and over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Lakshadweep.
Isolated rain or thundershowers have been forecast for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
A warning valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy rain is likely over coastal Karnataka, Kerala and the Ghat areas of south interior Karnataka.