Friday, September 10, 2010

With the low moving thru Kutch, the desert regions and rest of Gujarat were (again) battered by very heavy rains.
No explanations needed.Here are the 24 hrs rain amounts in cms. for Gujarat:

Gujarat region :- Dholka – 36; Barwala, Umagaon-17
each; Dhandhuka, Ranpur, Daman – 15 each; Kamrej – 12; Navsari – 11; Amod, Hansot – 10 each
Dohad, Petlad, Tarapur, VV Nagar, Dediapada, Nandod, Pardi, Gandevi, Olpad – 9 each; Baroda,
Bodeli, Valsad, Vapi, Jalalpur, Bardoli, Khambhat, Mehmadabad – 8 each; Anand, Matar, Ankleshwar,
Silvassa, Mangrol, Palsana – 7 each; Valod, Rajpipla, Dharam
pur, Vagra – 6 each. 5cm and less
rainfall recorded at a number of places.

Saurashtra–Kutch :- Jamnagar-13; Vallabhipur – 12; Kutch-Mandvi-11; Limbdi, Botad, Porbandar,
Okha – 9 each; Bhavnagar, Gogha, Kutiana, Dhrol, Lalpur, Rajkot – 8 each; Ranavav-7; Keshod,
Dhrangandra, Umrala, Kalawad, Jasdan, Upleta – 6 each; Kodina
r, Veraval, Chotila, Kharaghoda,
Lakhtar, Sihor – 5 each; Babra, Lathi, Sutrapada, Halvad, Palitana, Dwarka, Jodia, Kalyanpur, Gondal,
Abdasa, Naliya – 4 each. 3 cm and less rainfall recorded at a number of places.

Since the low has merged with the seasonal low over Sindh, rains have spread
into the South Rajasthan.(Uni.of Wisconsin map).
In the sindh region of Pakistan, good rains are reported, with North Karachi getting 36 mms of rain yesterday.
On moving into drier areas, I expect the low to fizzle out within next 24 hrs. Hence subsequent decrease in rainfall in Gujarat/Karachi region from tomorrow,

SWM shifts into +ve Zone:
The overall all India statistics for the monsoon rain is now +1%. Shifting into the plus zone is good, but it is very important to see alongwith if there is any r
egion still in the deficit.
The map is clear and self explanatory.
The situation is particularly bad in Jharkhand where rainfall deficit is touching 50%.
It has been very obvious this year that the monsoon’s bounty has been generous to largely dry areas of west Rajasthan and Kutch/Saurashtra getting 54 and 106% more rains this year.
While The monsoon starters of Kerala and coastal Karnataka witnessed lesser rains this season.

Withdrawal signs:
The monsoon usually starts receding from Western Rajasthan from Sept 1. However this year, this region has been receiving rainfall upto 10th. of September. IMD has stated in its latest updates that it might be a bit late in the monsoon witdhrawing. NCEP is of similar opinion and expects a withdrawal from Northwest India only after 15th of September.

Current analysis show the 200 hpa jet streams having moved very marginally south of 30N. But, on the western side, in Pakistan, we see the jet streams westerlies below 30N, as on Friday. And, as discussed yesterday, the seasonal low in Sindh is becoming 1000 mb, and maybe going up to 1002 mb by Monday.
I would back on a witdhdrawal from Pakistan and Western Rajasthan from Monday or Tuesday.
Further witdhrawal, southwards will be monitored stage wise.

A low is forecasted to form in the bay around the 14th. If true, then as per the above developments, the low may just skirt off north/north-eastwards. But ,another factor to estimate the track, is to see and observe is the axis alighnment as on that date.
Too early to discuss these permutations today !

Chennai - 5:39pm, Heavy thunder cell seen over W-S-W of chennai ... showers possible in another 1 hr
4pm, Heavy showers seen over Central, S.central and N.central Tamilnadu ... showers over Bihar, Orissa... http://ow.ly/i/3JxW
10.09.2010 Tamilnadu Rainfall... http://ow.ly/2CdgU

10.09.2010 Tamilnadu Rainfall










DistrictName StationName

ARIYALUR Ariyalur 0

Jayamkondan 0

Sendurai 0

Tirumanur 21
ARIYALUR Total
21
CHENNAI Nungambakkam 10.1
CHENNAI Total
10.1
COIMBATORE Annur 0

Coimbatore 0

Coimbatore AP 0

Mettupalayam 0

P.N.Palayam 0

Pollachi 0

Sulur 0
COIMBATORE Total 0
CUDDALORE Chidambaram 0

Cuddalore 5

K.M.Koil 0

Parangipettai 0

Sethiyathope 0

Srimushnam 0

Tozudur 5

Vridhachalam 0
CUDDALORE Total
10
DHARMAPURI Dharmapuri 0

Harur 3

Palacode 11

Pappireddipatti 0

Pennagaram 0
DHARMAPURI Total 14
DINDIGUL Kodaikanal 23.6
DINDIGUL Total
23.6
ERODE Bhavani 7

Bhavanisagar 0

Erode 0

Gobichettipalayam 1

Perundurai 0

Sathyamangalam 5
ERODE Total
13
KANCHIPURAM Cheyyur 0

Chinglepet 33

Kanchipuram 30.3

Maduranthagam 11

Minambakkam 8.7

Sriperumbudur 15.4

Tambaram 11

Uthiramerur 31
KANCHIPURAM Total 140.4
KANYAKUMARI Boothapandi 0.4

Kanyakumari 0

Kuzithurai 8.4

Mylaudy 0

Nagarkoil 0

Pechiparai 5

Thuckalay 0
KANYAKUMARI Total 13.8


0



KARUR Aravakurichi 0

K.Paramathi 0

Kadavur 8.1

Karur 0

Kulithalai 0

Mayanur 0

Panchapatti 0

Thogaimalai 0
KARUR Total
8.1
KRISHNAGIRI Anchetty 0

Baur 0

Denkanikottai 0

Hosur 0

Krishnagiri 0

Penugondapuram 0

Pochampalli 0

Rayakottah 0

Sholagiri 0

Thally 0

Uthangarai 0
KRISHNAGIRI Total
0
MADURAI Chittampatti 60

Madurai AP 17.4

Melur 38

Mettupatti 12

Peraiyur 0

Sholavandan 0

Thirumangalam 2.4

Usilampatti 0

Vadipatti 0
MADURAI Total
129.8
NAGAPATTINAM Kollidam 0

Mayiladuthurai 0

Nagapattinam 3.1

Sirkali 0

Tarangambadi 0

Vedaranyam 0
NAGAPATTINAM Total 3.1
NAMAKKAL Kumarapalayam 0

Mangalapuram 16.1

Namakkal 0

Paramathi 0

Rasipuram 19

Sendamangalam 0

Tiruchengodu 0
NAMAKKAL Total
35.1
NILGIRI Coonoor 6.8

Devala 40

Gudalur 6

Ketti 0

Kothagiri 35

Kundha 0

Naduvattam 22

Ooty 0
NILGIRI Total
109.8
PERAMBALUR Chettikulam 0

Padalur 0

Perambalur 0

Vembavur 3
PERAMBALUR Total 3





RAMANATHAPURAM Kadaladi 18

Kamuthi 0

Mudukulathur 0

Pamban 0

Paramakudi 0

R.S.Mangalam 0

Ramanathapuram 0

Rameswaram 0

Tiruvadanai 0

Tondi 0
RAMANATHAPURAM Total 18
SALEM Attur 13

Mettur Dam 1.2

Omalur 0

Salem 10.5

Sankarapuram 16.4

Vazapadi 5

Yercaud 0
SALEM Total
46.1
SIVAGANGA Devakottai 0

Illayankudi 0

Karaikudi 0

Manamadurai 8

Sivaganga 22.4

Thirupatthur 23.3

Tirupuvanam 0
SIVAGANGA Total
53.7
THANJAVUR Adiramapatinam 0.3

Grand Anicut 0

Kumbakonam 33.4

Madukur 3

Orathanadu 0

Papanasam 12.2

Pattukottai 0

Peravurani 0

Thanjavur 9

Thiruvidaimarudhur 28

Tirukattupalli 12.6

Tiruvaiyaru 0

Vallam 0
THANJAVUR Total
98.5
THENI Andipatti 0

Bodinayakanur 0

Koodalur 0

Periyakulam 0

Periyar Dam 15.2

Theni 0

Uthamapalayam 0
THENI Total
15.2
TIRUNELVELI Ambasamudram 0

Ayikudi 0

Manimuthar 0

Nanguneri 0

Palayamkottai 0

Radhapuram 0

Sankarankoil 0

Shenkottah 0

Sivagiri 0

Tenkasi 0
TIRUNELVELI Total
0
TIRUPUR Avinashi 0

Dharapuram 0

Kangeyam 0

Mulanur 0

Tirupur 0

Udumalpet 0
TIRUPUR Total
0
TIRUVALLUR Cholavaram 80

Pallipattu 2

Ponneri 96

Poonamallee 67

Poondi 20

Tiruttani 4

Tiruvallur 96
TIRUVALLUR Total
365
TIRUVANNAMALAI Arani 4.6

Chengam 0

Cheyyar 18

Polur 1

Sathanur dam 0

Tiruvannamalai 0

Vandavasi 29
TIRUVANNAMALAI Total 52.6
TIRUVARUR Kodavasal 6.4

Mannargudi 0

Muthupet 0

Nannilam 0

Needamangalam 9.2

Thiruthuraipoondi 0

Tiruvarur 1

Valangaiman 7.2
TIRUVARUR Total
23.8
TOOTHUKUDI Toothukudi 0
TOOTHUKUDI Total
0
TRICHY Lalgudi 0

Manaparai 10.4

Marungapuri 20.2

Musiri 0

Pullambadi 0

Samayapuram 0

Thathaiyangarpet 0

Thuraiyur 0

Tiruchy AP 0

Tiruchy Town 0
TRICHY Total
30.6
VELLORE Alangayam 0

Ambur 0

Arakkonam 0

Gudiyatham 0

Melalathur 0

Sholigur 0

Tirupattur 0

Vaniyambadi 0

Vellore 0.4

Walajapet 0
VELLORE Total
0.4
VILUPPURAM Gingee 70.5

Kallakurichi 0

Sankarapuram 16

Tindivanam 9

Tirukoilur 12

Ulundurpet 7

Vanur 5

Viluppuram 40
VILUPPURAM Total
159.5
Heavy & widespread showers forecast for kerala from today till 16-Sep-2010
Today, we can see a NEW and a weak Upper Air Circulation over South Bay... http://ow.ly/i/3Jry
RT @jnan43: Monsoon still active in Mumbai...so also pot holes for tough ride as MBC looks other way round !
Today, the low level circulation can be seen over Gujarat... http://ow.ly/i/3Jrk
2pm, South and S-W Bay is active...due to a Weak Upper air circulation... http://ow.ly/i/3Jrb
2pm, Heavy showers over central Rajasthan, and over coastal Kerala ... http://ow.ly/i/3Jrb
Chennai - More showers possible today also after 5 pm... or around midnight.
Chennai - Now 2:40pm, cloud formation can be seen.. warm & humid now at 34.2 C and wind is from S-W
Chennai - Egmore zone recorded a 9.9mm shower last night.
Chennai - Yesterday, South suburbs received T.shower at 4pm then after midnight a widespread T.shower lashed.. and drizzles cont till mornin

Rainfall matches long-range outlook, and counting

Overall monsoon performance has improved to 102 per cent and counting as of Thursday, matching the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) estimate for the entire season made in its long-range forecast.
Widespread rainfall has been reported from the West Coast, West Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha during the 24 hours ending on Thursday morning, the IMD said in an update the same evening.

DEFICIT IN EAST
It was fairly widespread over East Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Uttarkhand, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep. The deficit in East and Northeast India has since come down by a notch to 20 per cent, a rain-spell away from getting into the “normal” category despite nagging deficits in individual Met subdivisions in the region.
Jharkhand (-48 per cent) and Gangetic West Bengal (-35 per cent) continued to lead the pack.
Only Arunachal Pradesh showed a single-digit deficit of four per cent, which, thanks to IMD definition, is in the “normal” category (between -19 per cent and 20 per cent).

CROP UPDATE
Meanwhile, the latest agro-met advisory issued by the IMD said that the overall kharif crop condition continues to be “almost normal” except in East and Northeast India. Receipt of well-distributed rainfall in most of the States is expected to lead to a good harvest during the season.
Farmers in the East and the Northeast who could not sow during the earlier part of kharif season or lost the sowed crop due to deficient rain have been advised to make most of the recent rain and undertake sowing according to recommended contingency measures.
Crops partially affected due to less rainfall during earlier part of the season in some districts of Uttar Pradesh have now recovered due to a recent round of wet weather witnessed during the last few weeks.
Alongside, there have also been reports of adverse impact to crop from heavy rainfall in different parts of the country, the advisory said.
Heavy rainfall on two days on a trot and resultant water-logging has affected soybean, groundnut, ginger and turmeric crops in low-lying areas in Imphal-West and Imphal-East districts of Manipur.
Submergence of crops, mainly kharif vegetables, has been reported from some areas of Upper Brahmaputra Valley zone of Assam.
Harvest-ready green gram crop in Gulbarga and Yadgir districts in Karnataka too has been affected in this manner. Alternating bright sunshine for the last 15 days has led to pod shattering, leading to severe loss of crop.
Reports of water logging have been reported from Hyderabad, Medak, Rangareddy and Nalgonda districts in Telangana. Farmers have been advised to drain out excess water from the fields.
Chilli and tomato crops have been adversely affected by heavy rainfall in Nagaland. Fruit rot in chilli and bacterial blight in tomato may have adversely affected the yield of the respective crops, the advisory said.
The East and Northeast, which witnesses annual rainfall between 1,300 mm and 2,800 mm, is passing through its second year of drought or delayed monsoon.
In contrast, the desert States in the north and west with annual rainfall of between 600 and 900 mm have seen a deluge this year.
Satellite cloud imagery on Thursday afternoon showed the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of Gujarat, Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, the Northeastern States, West-central and South Bay of Bengal and East Arabian Sea.
A rain alert valid for the next two days said that heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur at a few places over Gujarat.
Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall has been forecast over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim during this period.
In Central India, isolated heavy rainfall would occur over West Madhya Pradesh, North Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan, Goa and Coastal Karnataka on Friday.

Monsoon turns corner, 101% as of date

The South-West monsoon has turned the corner on Wednesday by posting 101 per cent braving a lean patch in East-central, East and North-East India.
Of the four homogenous geographical regions of the country, Northwest India (107 per cent), Central India (104 per cent) and South Peninsula (121) per cent recorded above normal rainfall.

NO GAINS
At 79 per cent, East and Northeast India was in deficit, with no significant gains recorded in the ongoing active phase of monsoon.
Jharkhand (-48 per cent), Gangetic West Bengal (-35 per cent), Assam and Meghalaya (-26 per cent) and Bihar (-25 per cent) bore the brunt of an erratic monsoon in these parts. Northwest India had a deficit Meteorological subdivision in East Uttar Pradesh (-28 per cent) lying adjacent to barren Bihar. Central India too had individual cases of Met subdivisions barely making the grade to the normal as per India Meteorological Department (IMD) definitions (putting it between -19 per cent to +20 per cent).
East Madhya Pradesh (-18 per cent), Orissa and West Madhya Pradesh (-15 per cent each) and Chhattisgarh (-14 per cent) are ‘normal' only by default.

LESS IN KERALA
In the South, the traditional monsoon playgrounds of Kerala and Coastal Karnataka posted -13 per cent and -2 per cent rainfall during the season as of Wednesday.
The massive 121 per cent surplus accrued from the humongous falls over Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu this time round in a trend forecast by international agencies before the start of the season.
An IMD update on Wednesday said that widespread rainfall was reported from over Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, the West Coast, Gujarat, Southeast Rajasthan, and Coastal Orissa during the 24 hours ending in the afternoon.
It was fairly widespread over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand, Haryana, Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Interior Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal, Assam, Saurashtra, Kutch and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

LAND-BASED ‘LOW'
A land-based low-pressure area over Vidarbha and adjoining Chhattisgarh and Southeast Madhya Pradesh persisted overseeing the proceedings over East-central and parts of East India.
An upper air cyclonic circulation was located to over West Haryana and neighbourhood that boosted the easterly flows steered by the land-based ‘low.'
An offshore trough ran down from South Gujarat coast to Kerala coast, but not quite covering it in its entirety.
A rain alert valid for Thursday said that isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, West Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Southeast Rajasthan and Coastal Karnataka.

RAIN WARNING
Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra and South Madhya Pradesh also during this period.
But isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall has been forecast for Gujarat, Konkan and Goa during the next two days.
Extended forecast until Monday said that fairly widespread rainfall would occur over the Gangetic Plains, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, the Northeastern States, Orissa and the West Coast.
The rain belt would be mostly active over the eastern quadrant of the country, including the Southeast Coast, during the week ending September 15 (Wednesday next), according to the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction.
South west monsoon "withdrawal symptoms" .... http://ow.ly/2CboV
Salute this man! Pachauri did what no climate sceptic is able to do... http://ow.ly/2Cbn8
All India Rainfall toppers from 1st January 2010 - 9th September 2010... http://ow.ly/2Cbmg
RT @malhotramona: @weatherofindia mumbai weather report http://ping.fm/emSis (10:22am)
RT @malhotramona: @weatherofindia mumbai mahim this morning http://ping.fm/6ANzV (10:19am)
RT @rajugana: Baroda 9.50am, after yes't downpour 18 cms in 5 hrs.. reports of flooding everywhere... today it is cloudy with drizzles.