Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 8 .. (Chennai out of "Laila" 's path)

JTWC projected path:
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181500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 83.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST
OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD MOTION AND TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS TIGHTENED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON AN
181050Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM PGTW AND T3.0 FROM KNES, AND
SUPPORTED BY NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS. TC 01B IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTH-WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN RECURVE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR REORIENTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 
MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL INDIA 
AFTER TAU 36. THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS (NOGAPS, GFDN, 
EGRR AND ECMWF) ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK. GFS AND
WBAR ARE LEFT OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE. TC LAILA IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY UP TO TAU 36 BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL SOUTH OF KAKINADA,
THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF INDIA, ALTHOUGH
MAINTAINING TC INTENSITY DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE
FROM THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY WEAKEN INTO A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE BEFORE IT CROSSES INTO BANGLADESH BY TAU 120.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z

Latest Satellite shot
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Massive showers can be seen over Central Tamilnadu , Central Tamilnadu coast, N-W Tamilnadu and over Central Karnataka

1 comment:

  1. It would have been good and greatness of nature if cyclone had crossed TamilNadu. TN would have received good water. In fact last year 2009 May cyclone "Alia" originated from south east Indian ocean and it was anticipated to cross TamilNadu but didn't and striked Calcutta/Bangladesh. Similar trajectory is followed by "Laila". In fact last year cyclone led to disturbance in southwest monsoon, and 2009 received weak monsoon. What about this cyclone effect on monsoon?

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