Monday, November 12, 2012

UAC in South Bay will descend as a Low, (BB-11) by the 14th of November, around the 8N and 85E region, East of sri Lanka. The system, BB-11 will move NW towards the TN coast as a depression. 
Rainfall increasing progressively along TN coast from 15th, and in Chennai from 15th/16th. Centre of the system will be off the TN coast on 16th...

As mentioned on 7th, another Low forms around the Andaman region, about 93E. The 2 system can form a strong trough. (Usually called a trough "in sympathy").

The tracking of BB-11 and BB-12 will depend on the tilt of the trough. 
Vagaries reads the situation as BB-11 moving into TN as a depression..
#chennai - now 12:48pm, temp. is 30.3°C... Strong winds from N-E at upper levels. Almost NO cloud formation seen!

@yashpalsalecha >> #Chennai - May have 1 or 2 showers tomorrow, nothing much expected as the Bay circulation is expected to move North.
If the present S-E Bay circulation moves North into Bay.. then NO rain for Tamilnadu and #chennai till 19-Nov .. #Bad #News
S-E corner bay circulation persists and now NOGAPS also predicts a northerly movement into Bay from 13-Nov..

Here's the NOGAPS prediction of circulation moving North into Bay on 15-Nov...

Here's the COLA model prediction of circulation moving north into Bay on 15/16-Nov..

Steering wind at 200hpa heights are moving North above 10th parallel over Bay.. this'll guide the circulation North..