5pm, Entire west coast is looking like a South-west Monsoon evening ... showers all along W,S-W coast ... http://ow.ly/i/5odq

RT @balajisanjeev: Very little rain so far in this monsoon... Pray at least the coming days bring sufficient rainfall... @weatherofindia

Straying winds drive away rains to West

A bulk of the ongoing seasonal rain has been falling over Maharashtra, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and parts of Karnataka, thanks to wind pattern and direction prevailing ahead and in the rear of Bay of Bengal cyclone ‘Jal.'

Indications are that it would take some more time for the Bay to calm down and host less-intense systems such easterly waves, which travel straight to the west and bring rains over southern parts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

Fresh cyclone?

Cyclones track west-northwest over sea and mostly stick to the pattern over land as well, as exemplified in the case of remnant circulation from ‘Jal.'

The Bay is far from settling unless the next big weather system, another likely cyclone, spends itself out after hitting the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh coast next week.

This is according to the outlook of a number of international models, though with exceptions, for the rest of this week and the next.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already traced an upper air cyclonic circulation to over South Andaman Sea.

It is backed up heavy northeast monsoon activity over the Gulf of Thailand just next door. The expectation is that the circulation would get a move west-northwest into the Bay and set up a low-pressure area over central parts of South Bay of Bengal. International models see the possibility of the circulation dropping anchor over the South Bay for quite sometime (three to four days) before spinning up as the next cyclonic storm.

On Wednesday, the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services said that there is an increased chance of cyclogenesis (birth of tropical cyclone) in the Bay during the week from November 9 to 15.

On a scale of one to three (weak, moderate and high), the CPC assessed as ‘moderate' the chances of the circulation ramping up to cyclone status.

Active convection, favourable low-level winds (easterlies to northeasterlies), above-normal warmth of the seawaters, and a weakening trend for wind shear should contribute to the building of the storm, the CPC said.

It was, however, wind shear (sudden change in wind direction and speed with height) that put paid to Tropical Cyclone Jal, which lost cyclone status while making landfall.

Various model runs by the US Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography said the brewing cyclone would have peak winds clocking between 40 to 50 knots (74 to 93 km/hr), making it a minimal cyclone.

The likely track of the storm tends to suggest that the Andhra Pradesh coast would bear the brunt of the storm as it hits the home stretch.

The landfall is likely to happen closer to Chennai around November 16, as per initial conditions obtaining on Wednesday (a week ahead of the eventuality).

Meanwhile, an IMD update on Wednesday said that fairly widespread rainfall was reported from over Gujarat, Konkan, Goa, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka, South Coastal Andhra Pradesh, North Tamil Nadu and Kerala during past 24 hours.

This unusual weather activity was attributed to a well-marked ‘low' from erstwhile cyclone ‘Jal,' which had snaked its way from the Southeast Coast.

The system continued to loiter around the Northeast Arabian Sea off Gujarat on Wednesday evening.

An Insat imagery showed the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of South Gujarat, Northeast Arabian Sea, South and West-central Bay and the Andaman Sea.

Forecast until Saturday saw the possibility of fairly widespread rain or thundershowers over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Gujarat, Konkan, Goa, Kerala and Coastal Karnataka on Thursday and Friday and scattered thereafter.

Scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh during this period.

Isolated rain or thundershowers has been forecast over Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh on Thursday and increase thereafter.

Isolated rain or thundershowers has also been forecast for Haryana, Delhi and West Uttar Pradesh from Friday onwards.

So far, Totally a mixed bag of predictions by weather models regarding the upcoming Depression / cyclone around 17/18-Nov-2010

latest IMD-GFS, predicts a Depression to hit Chennai and S. Andhra coast on 17-Nov ... http://ow.ly/i/5nTy

Analysis show a LOW circulation has formed over S-E corner Bay over S. Andhaman islands .. http://ow.ly/i/5nT7

RT @balajisanjeev: Clear sky in Meenambakkam... Chennai @weatherofindia http://ping.fm/xWIoc (12:33pm)

Nagercoil - received massive showers during afternoon and night of 10-Nov... reports awaited.

Latest COLA-GFS predicts a depression for Andhra coast on 17/18-Nov-2010. No model has arrived at a clear picture yet.. http://ow.ly/i/5nOZ

RT @balajisanjeev: A view of rain at Meenambakkam... (12:16pm) .. http://ping.fm/jOApw

RT @balajisanjeev: Started raining in Meenambakkam in Chennai. (12:09pm)

Cloud burst over Panchapatti (Karur dt) recorded an extremely heavy rainfall of 26 CM till 8:30am of 10-Nov-2010

11am, weak Remnant of Cyclone Jal is making 2nd landfall over S-W Gujarat.. Heavy showers reported .. http://ow.ly/i/5nOm

RT @balajisanjeev: Sky over southern parts of Chennai is covered with scattered clouds and it might occasionally rain too..(10:19am)

RT @balajisanjeev: Seems to have rained during the nt in Pammal at Chennai. Also the sky was cloudy.. http://ping.fm/nVJXx