Saturday, June 19, 2010

98A formed at 72.5E and 17.5N. Expected to stay embedded in trough and move west as estimated today morning. Its terminology is changed, and is the vortex mentioned earliar.
Readings as on 19th. June:
Hottest in Asia:Al Ahsa Airport (Saudi Arabia)  50c, and Al Khaisumah Airport (Saudi Arabia)  50c.
Hottest places in Sub-Continent: Larkana (Pakistan) 49c, Kota (India) 46.3c.
Hottest Night in Al Khaisumah Airport 34c, and Kota recorded 32c last night.Heaviest Rain yesterday: Harnai (maharashtra) got 421 mms in the last 24 hrs.

Harnai (Maharashtra) recorded 42 cm in 24hrs

Harnai recorded 42.1 cm ending 8.30am on 19.06.2010. The one day record for Harnai is 80cm recorded on 05.08.1968. The record for highest rainfall (24hrs) for Maharasthra is held by Vihar lake (Mumbai) 104.9 cm followed by 94.4 cm at Santacruz (Mumbai) both were recorded on 27 July 2005.

[Harnai is a little temple town located in Ratnagiri District of Maharashtra. The main attraction of the place is Harnai Beach and Harnai Fort]
Tirunelveli - heavy showers just 4:20pm started with thunder
Chennai - having a clear evening now. Recorded a max temp. of 34.0 °C (12:11pm)
RT @ndtv: Moderate intensity quake hit Andaman Islands early today.
Kanyakumari district of Tamilnadu & S. kerala is getting a break from heavy monsoon showers. some mild sharp showers are still there !
With 125mms of rain in just 90minutes, it was a massive cloudburst, and could be due to a formation of a local vortex within the off shore trough. The local heat during the day, it was 32c on Friday, added fuel, and convection pushed up the vertical cone to heights of maybe 45000 ft during the storm. Cloud tops were observed at -55c in the weather maps.

As seen in the satellite image, a vortex is seen hanging around off the North Konkan coast even today, with enhanced cloud cover.
Now, as per the forecast models, this cloud cover will remain in the same stationary position till Tuesday, off the Maharashtra coast, and on Tuesday move towards Mumbai, and precipitate heavy rain along the Mumbai-North Konkan coast on Tuesday/Wednesday.
Since there is a possibility of an active MJO enhancing Monsoon prospects along the west coast, I would prescribe to this forecast, but for this to happen, there could be some mild heating again along the "forecasted "region on Sunday/Monday.
That is when I would presume an upper air circulation to form over south Gujarat, and precipitation could resume in strenght along Saurashtra from Tuesday.
Rain is seen pushing into interior Maharshtra this weekend. Some favourable rains could be expected in Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and Vidharbh this weekend.

The Bay seems to remain devoid of a low till Tuesdat at least. The East-West trough is seen along the plains of North and Northeast India, but bluntly cutting off in the east. Hence local pulses will bring rains along the Orissa/West Bengal coast this weekend , and at least till Tuesday, I do not see any meaningful rain in T.N. and A.P.
As per the 200 hpa jet streams, I would still stay put the Monsoon at 22N. After,the 23rd, when the active MJO gets into action, we could expect a further advance of the monsoon, in the eastern and western regions.Monsoon may push into U.P. and M.P.after 23rd.

Mumbai Forecast: 
Mumbai Colaba has recieved 478mms of rain in the 18 days of this month. This is much better than the 266mms recieved in the whole of June last year. A good and bountiful beginning for a thirsty city.
Santa Cruz has recieved 333mms of rain till date this month, against 216mms recieved in June last year.
I see a slight let up in the rains for the weekend, say about 20-25mms per day, with with a chance of a thunder shower in some areas. Day temperature may go up to 32c on Sunday.
Rainfall will increase from Tuesday,22nd, thru Wednesday23rd. For Tuesday/Wednesday, I would put the accumalated rainfall at 120/150mms. Again,check up local areas for flooding on Wednesday,23rd.
Heavy thunderstorm in Mumbai on Friday evening. After a hot day, 125mms in Colaba in two and a  half hours. 35mms in Santa Cruz. Patch around Mumbai only.