Saturday, November 21, 2009

Chennai - a clear evening with minor Low cloud formation from North-east... a clear saturday evening after weeks of WET saturdays.
TN coast may be getting ready for a BIGGER weather event.. On monday we'll have the answer to it.. we'll keep it posted!
Gulf of Mannar is active, today's showers are mostly concentrated over central and western Tamilnadu ..
Satellite shows. South-east Bay is getting ready to host a Cyclone/depression ..
Satellite shows a slightly subdued South-west Bay along TN coast..
Chennai - Deep blue skies with Low cloud formation is always a sign of NEW weather front moving in tomorrow.. Mostly its going to be WET.!

More technical comments by our readers.

Anonymous has left a new comment on your post "We should get showers atleast till 10-Dec to suppo...":
I am very optimistic that the NEM will continue till mid of December. The bay below 5 Degree North right from Thai to TN coast has become active of late. The historical LOW PRESSURE AREA [LOPAR] which is (was) always seen in the Bay now shifted to south of Comrin and the cyclogensis area or LOPAR is in that stretch only. However such a formation is not NEW to us, and it had been reported during 1940 or so. {Chronological order may slightly differ}During such period southern Tamilnadu especially Thoothukudi & Tirunelveli districts will receive copious rainfall. You may see the names of villages in THOOTHUKUDI district and near by as'SATTANKULAM,URUMANKULAM,PEIYKULAM,PETTAIKULAM' etc.
So this year we may expect NEM to rain at least until mid of Dec 2009 Moreover the remnants of NEM will follow in January 2010 too.
Not to worry about ground water. However replenishing ground water with this short time rainfall {Oct-Dec] is disproportionate to its drastic drawls
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NE monsoon to surge and BAY STORM LIKELY ..

North-East monsoon may get into `surge mode' again

The North-East monsoon is in a "surge mode" upstream of the Bay of Bengal with high winds and heavy rains warned of in the Gulf of Thailand over the next two days.

This is being triggered by the massive seasonal high-pressure area covering China now extending a "limb" south into mainland Thailand compressing the north-easterly flows over the Thai Gulf and the Malacca Straits.


Even otherwise, the ground setting for the surge was more or less complete with the arrival of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave, very warm seas and intense convection across an area stretching west to the Bay of Bengal and reaching the Sri Lankan and Indian coasts.

The MJO wave travels in the upper levels and sets off weather activity or magnifies existing weather over ground. The wave moves west to east, and had been active over equatorial Indian Ocean until now.

Meanwhile, the Thai Met Department has warned ships, especially small boats, sailing through the Gulf and the adjoining Andaman Sea to exercise caution over the next two days, given the monsoon surge.

It is likely that the disturbed weather may get propagated into the southeast Bay of Bengal from across the Thai peninsula over the very warm waters (up to 31 deg Celsius).

On Friday, the Thai Met Department saw a cyclonic circulation each over the southern tip of India as well as half-way down to the east-southeast. India Met Department (IMD) too traced a cyclonic circulation lying over Kerala on Friday.


The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts sees a churn being set off over south-east Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea during the next week and getting propagated to the west in phases.

The system will grow in intensity by Nov 29-30, and may reach depression status over south-central Bay of Bengal and would be positioned to hit north Tamil Nadu-south coastal Andhra Pradesh coast.

Further strengthening of the system would depend on the prevailing sea-surface temperatures, which are currently cooler side towards the Indian coast.

The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) supports this outlook by suggesting a wet regime for the entire southern peninsula during November 20 to 27 with concentrated rains forecast for Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coasts.

The NCEP expects to see this wet spell lingering through the following week (Nov 28 to Dec 6) as well, especially along the Tamil Nadu coast.

IMD observations on Friday also talked about the presence of a trough of low (not amounting to a low-pressure area) over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Sri Lanka. This is an extension weather of the brewing disturbed weather over upstream Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand.

The Chennai Met Centre said in its update that rainfall occurred at many places over Kerala and coastal Andhra Pradesh and at a few places over coastal Tamil Nadu and south interior Karnataka during the 24 hours ending Friday morning.


Isolated rainfall was reported from interior Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema, Telangana, coastal and north interior Karnataka.

Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at many places over coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry and at a few places over interior Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Lakshadweep, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and coastal Karnataka.

Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely to occur over interior Karnataka and Telangana.

A warning valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy rain is likely over coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

Towards the north, minimum temperatures are likely to fall by 1-2 deg Celsius over northwest India and by 2-4 deg Celsius over central and adjoining east India during the next few days.
RT @Karthik22: @weatherofindia latest gfs showing cyclone make landfall near nellore nogaps cmc models not keen on this tc yet
Chennai - After some showers over north and north-west suburbs.. now 2:13pm, its warm and humid with cloud formation from north-east.
climate change is worse for women ..
NE showers normally will last till end of November, in some cases it was seen extended.
We should get showers atleast till 10-Dec to support the ground water table for surviving the HARSH Tamilnadu summer. But ..
After 29-Nov, rains for TamilNadu will subside to almost ZERO...
EFS models suggests LOW formation over south-east Bay around 27-Nov, and after that dying over sea.
Satellite shows, Heavy showers over south-east coastal TN and extreme south tip of TN .. Bay is active as well.
Today's GFS model suggests Cyclone formation over south-east Bay and intensifying and moving North into Bay ..
Yesterday's GFS models suggested a Cyclone formation north-east of Srilanka.. Today it presents a totally different picture..
RT @chennaiweather: Monsoon will be active atleast till December 5. Rain possibility this week end and may spill through out next week.
RT @chennaiweather: Light rain in chennai. Low pressure may develop over Bay of Bengal. Will impact Srilanka and south Tamil Nadu
RT @ravlee83: Rains in chennai suck big time. I just hate to step out from home with all the slush and water on the roads.
chennai - North and north-west Chennai received mild showers earlier. Just 1 hr back also received mild a short shower. No rain in south.