Monday, November 09, 2009
Nilgiris getting VERY heavy showers on 8-Nov-09
IMD report:
A well-marked low pressure area lies over Lakshadweep area and neighborhood at 0830 hrs IST of 09th November 2009 may concentrate in to Depression.
Northeast monsoon has been vigorous over Tamilnadu, South coastal Andhrapradesh, Rayalaseema and active over Kerala .
Rainfall occurred at most places over Tamilnadu, Kerala, South Coastal Andhrapradesh and Rayalaseema and Lakshadweep at many places over Karnataka and at a few places over Telangana. Isolated rainfall occurred over North Coastal Andhrapradesh.
Coonoor recorded an extremely heavy rainfall of 34 centimetres.
The following stations recorded very heavy-to-heavy rainfall in centimetres.
Uthagamandalam 18, Kothagiri (Nilgiris dt), Kodaikanal and Srikalahasthi (Chittor dt) 17 each, Ketty (Nilgiris dt), Udayagiri (Nellore dt) 14, Shenkottah (Tirunelveli dt) 13, Kavali 12, Karur Paramathi, Marungapuri (Tiruchirapalli dt), Nellore and Vinjamur (Nellore dt), 11 each, Chembarampakkam (Tiruvallur dt), Sethiyathope (Cuddalore dt), Tirumayam and Thiruvananthapuram Airport 10 each, Chengalpattu and Sriperumpudur (both Kancheepuram dt), Ulundurpet (Villupuram dt), Nannilam (Tiruvarur dt), Kangeyam (Tiruppur dt), Kundha Bridge (Nilgiris dt), Aravakurichi (Karur dt), Marungapuri (Tiruchirapalli dt), Gudur (Nellore dt) and Rajampet (Cuddapah dt) 9 each, Kancheepuram, Cheyyur (Kancheepuram dt), Puducherry Airport, R.S. Mangalam (Ramanathapuram dt), Arakonam (Vellore dt), Kadavur (Karur dt) and Tiruchirapalli 8 each and Uthiramerur(Kancheepuram dt), Pallipattu and Thamaraipakkam (Both Tiruvallur dt), Gingee (Villupuram dt), Villupuram, Avinashi and
Dharapuram (both Tirupur dt), Mettupalyam (Coimbatore dt), Perundurai (Erode dt), Punalur, Rapur, Venkatagiri Town and Atmakur (all Nellore dt), Rayachoty (Cuddapah dt) 7 each.
The other chief amounts of rainfall recorded in Centimetres are:
Maduranthagam (Kancheepuram dt), Cuddalore, Parangipettai, Sankarapuram(Villupuram dt), Kollidam (Nagapattinam dt), Manamelkudi, Viralimalai (Pudukottai dt), Manimutharu (Tirunelveli dt), Erode, Mayanur (Karur dt) and Natham (Dindugul dt), Tada, Satyavedu and Puttur (both Chittor dt) 6 each, Chennai Airport, Tiruvallur, Poondi and Cholavaram (both Tiruvallur dt), Tiruttani, Panruti (Cuddalore dt), Kallakurichi and Vannur (both Villupuram dt), Rameswaram (Ramanathapuram dt), Arani, Cheyyur and Vandavasi (all Thiruvanamalai dt),
Tirupur, Namakkal, Bhavanisagar and Mulanur (both Erode dt) and Musiri (Tiruchirapalli dt), Seetharamapuram and Sulurpet (both Nellore dt), Porumamilla, Badvel and Pulivendala (all Cuddapah dt), and Cuddapah 5 each, Anna University (Chennai district), Tambaram, Ponneri and Ramakrishnarajpet (both Thiruvallur dt), Chidambaram, Virudhachalam and Thozhudur (all Cuddalore dt), Tirukoilur (Villupuram dt), Tiruvidaimaruthur (Thanjavur dt), Mannargudi (Tiruvarur dt), Tiruvadani (Ramanathapuram dt), Illupur (Pudukottai dt), Pudukottai, Chengam, Polur and Sathanur Dam (all Thiruvanamalai dt), Thiruvanamalai, Soolagiri and Uthangarai (both Krishnagiri dt), Paramathi Velur, Gobichettipalayam (Erode dt), Panchapatti and Kulithalai (both Karur dt), Harur (Dharmapuri dt), Periyakulam (Theni dt), Ilayankudi and Karaikudi (both Sivaganga dt), Vedasanthur (Dindugul dt), Amini , Kavarathi, Cumbum (Prakasam dt), Kamalapuram (Cuddapah dt), Thirupathi Airport, Palamaner
(Chittor dt), Chittor, Dharmavaram (Ananthapur dt)4 each, Chennai, DGP Office (Chennai dt), Srimushnam (Cuddalore dt), Tindivanam (Villupuram dt), Karaikal, Grand Anaicut and Peravurani (both Thanjavur dt), Nagapattinam, Tarangambadi (Nagapattinam dt), Alangudi, Arimalam, Keeranur and Perungalur (all Pudukottai dt), Pamban, Ambasamudram, Ayikudi, Manimuthar and Tenkasi (all Tirunelveli dt), Kuzithurai and Nagerkoil (both Kanyakumari dt), Tirupattur, Vaniyambadi and Walajapet (both Vellore dt), Vellore, Pochampalli and Barur (both Krishnagiri dt), Kumarapalayam, Mangalapuram, Senthamangalam and Tiruchengode (all Namakkal dt), Mettur Dam (Salem dt), Yercaud, Coimbatore, Sulur and Periyanaickenpalayam (both Coimbatore dt), Bhavani (Erode dt), Karur, Jayamkondam (Ariyalur dt), Vembavur (Perambalur dt), Thathiengarpet (Tiruchirapalli dt), Melur and Usilampatti (both Madurai dt), Devakottai and Tirupattur (both Sivaganga dt), Sivaganga, Virudhunagar ,Palani
(Dindugul dt), Podili, Yerragondapalam and Kandukur (all Prakasam dt), Mangalagiri (Guntur dt), Lakkireddipalli (Cuddapah dt), Ananthapur Kalyandurg and Rayadurg (all Ananthapur dt), Nandyal, Srisailam, Pakala and Punganur (both Chittor dt), Muddanur (Cuddapah dt), Koppal and Bellary 3 each, Kumbakonam, Thiruvaiyaru (both Thanjavur dt), Thanjavur, Kodavasal (Tiruvarur dt), Kollidam and Mylauduthurai (both Nagapattinam dt), Mudukulathur (Ramanathapuram dt), Tondi, Palayamkottai, Radhapuram and Maniyatchi (both Tirunelveli dt), Tuticorin, Sathankulam, Srivaikundam and Tiruchendur (all Tuticorin dt), Mylaudy (Kanyakumari dt), Ambur and Gudiyatham (both Vellore dt), Ramanathapuram, Palacode and Pappireddipatti (both Dharmapuri dt), Rayakottai, Soolagiri and Thali (all Krishnagiri dt), Rasipuram (Namakkal dt), Coimbatore Airport, Gudalur Bazar and Naduvattam (Nilgiris dt), Chettikulam (Perambalur dt), Samayapuram (Tiruchirapalli dt), Chittampatti and
Tirumangalam (both Madurai dt), Andipatti (Theni dt), Aruppukottai and Rajapalayam (Virudhunagar dt), Dindugal, Theni, Ongole, Darsi and Addanki (both Prakasam dt), Bapatla, Macherla (Guntur dt), Kalwakurthy and Nagarkurnool (both Mahabubnagar dt), Devarakonda and Miryalguda (both Nalgonda dt), Pamidi and Kanekal (both Anantapur dt), Kurnool, Arogyavaram, Proddatur (Cuddapah dt), Thambalapalle (Chittoor dt), Kushtagi (Koppal dt), Chitradurga and Molkalmuru (Chitradurga dt) 2 each and Orathanadu, Papanasam and Thirukattupalli (all Thanjavur dt), Needamangalam, Thiruthuraipoondi and Valangaiman (all Tiruvarur dt), Gandarvakottai, and Karambakudi (both Pudukottai dt), Kamudhi (Ramanathapuram dt), Sankarankoil and Sivagiri (both Tirunelveli dt), Kovilpatti, Ottapidaram and Vilathikulam (all Tuticorin dt), Kanyakumari, Pechipparai and Thuckalay (both Kanyakumari dt), Denkanikottai and Hosur (Krishnagiri dt), Krishnagiri, Attur, Omalur and Vazhapadi
(all Salem dt), Salem, Pollachi, Chinna Kallar and Udumalpet (all Coimbatore dt), Perambalur, Lalgudi and Thuraiyur (both Thiruchirapalli dt), Mettupatti, Sholavandan, Vadipatti and Peraiyur (all Madurai dt), Bodinayakanur and Gudalur (both Theni dt), Theni, Manamadurai and Tiruppuvanam (Sivagangai dt), Watrap, Virudhunagar, Dindugal, Eluru (West Godavari dt), Alur, Avanigadda, Allagada, Holagunda, Atmakur, Pathikonda and Nuzvid (all Krishna dt), Rentachintala, Tandur (Renga Reddy dt), Achampet and Alampur (both Mahabubnagar dt), Ramannapet (Nalgonda dt), Repalle (Guntur dt), Guntur, Nandigama, Madnoor (Nizamabad dt), Gooty (Anantapur dt), Venkatagirikota (Chittoor dt), Gadag, Tavargere (Koppal dt), Bagalkote, Jamakhandi (Bagalkote dt), Sindhanur (Raichur dt), Yagati (Chickmagalur dt), Sargur (Mysore dt), Bandipura and Kollegal (Chamrajanagar dt), Channagiri (Davanagere dt), Rampura, Challakere and C.N.Halli (all Tumkur dt) 1 each.
Khammam recorded the lowest minimum temperature of 17 degree Celsius in the plains of region.
WEATHER FORECAST VALID UNTIL THE MORNING OF 11th NOVEMBER 2009:
Rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at most places over Kerala, Lakshadweep and Coastal Karnataka, and at many places over Tamilnadu, Puducherry, Coastal Andhrapradesh, Rayalaseema and Interior Karnataka and at a few places over Telangana.
HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING:
Scattered heavy with isolated very heavy rain is likely to occur over Kerala and Coastal Karnataka during next 48 hours. Isolated heavy to very heavy rain is likely to occur over Tamilnadu and Puducherry, Coastal andhrapradesh, Interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep area during the same period.
SQUALLY WEATHER WARNING: -
Squally weather with wind speed reaching 50-60 Kmph likely along off Kerala and Karnataka Coast and Over Lakshadweep area during next 48 hours.
FORECAST FOR CHENNAI CITY AND NEIGHBOURHOOD
For next 24 hours: Generally cloudy with few spells of rain or thundershower heavy in some areas.
For next 48 hours: Generally cloudy with few spells of rain or thundershower heavy in some areas.
FARMERS WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TAMIL NADU AND PUDUCHERRY FORECAST VALID UNTIL THE MORNING OF 11th NOVEMBER 2009:
Moderate to rather heavy rain is likely at many places over all the districts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING: Isolated heavy to very heavy rain is likely to occur over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during next 48 hours.
A well-marked low pressure area lies over Lakshadweep area and neighborhood at 0830 hrs IST of 09th November 2009 may concentrate in to Depression.
Northeast monsoon has been vigorous over Tamilnadu, South coastal Andhrapradesh, Rayalaseema and active over Kerala .
Rainfall occurred at most places over Tamilnadu, Kerala, South Coastal Andhrapradesh and Rayalaseema and Lakshadweep at many places over Karnataka and at a few places over Telangana. Isolated rainfall occurred over North Coastal Andhrapradesh.
Coonoor recorded an extremely heavy rainfall of 34 centimetres.
The following stations recorded very heavy-to-heavy rainfall in centimetres.
Uthagamandalam 18, Kothagiri (Nilgiris dt), Kodaikanal and Srikalahasthi (Chittor dt) 17 each, Ketty (Nilgiris dt), Udayagiri (Nellore dt) 14, Shenkottah (Tirunelveli dt) 13, Kavali 12, Karur Paramathi, Marungapuri (Tiruchirapalli dt), Nellore and Vinjamur (Nellore dt), 11 each, Chembarampakkam (Tiruvallur dt), Sethiyathope (Cuddalore dt), Tirumayam and Thiruvananthapuram Airport 10 each, Chengalpattu and Sriperumpudur (both Kancheepuram dt), Ulundurpet (Villupuram dt), Nannilam (Tiruvarur dt), Kangeyam (Tiruppur dt), Kundha Bridge (Nilgiris dt), Aravakurichi (Karur dt), Marungapuri (Tiruchirapalli dt), Gudur (Nellore dt) and Rajampet (Cuddapah dt) 9 each, Kancheepuram, Cheyyur (Kancheepuram dt), Puducherry Airport, R.S. Mangalam (Ramanathapuram dt), Arakonam (Vellore dt), Kadavur (Karur dt) and Tiruchirapalli 8 each and Uthiramerur(Kancheepuram dt), Pallipattu and Thamaraipakkam (Both Tiruvallur dt), Gingee (Villupuram dt), Villupuram, Avinashi and
Dharapuram (both Tirupur dt), Mettupalyam (Coimbatore dt), Perundurai (Erode dt), Punalur, Rapur, Venkatagiri Town and Atmakur (all Nellore dt), Rayachoty (Cuddapah dt) 7 each.
The other chief amounts of rainfall recorded in Centimetres are:
Maduranthagam (Kancheepuram dt), Cuddalore, Parangipettai, Sankarapuram(Villupuram dt), Kollidam (Nagapattinam dt), Manamelkudi, Viralimalai (Pudukottai dt), Manimutharu (Tirunelveli dt), Erode, Mayanur (Karur dt) and Natham (Dindugul dt), Tada, Satyavedu and Puttur (both Chittor dt) 6 each, Chennai Airport, Tiruvallur, Poondi and Cholavaram (both Tiruvallur dt), Tiruttani, Panruti (Cuddalore dt), Kallakurichi and Vannur (both Villupuram dt), Rameswaram (Ramanathapuram dt), Arani, Cheyyur and Vandavasi (all Thiruvanamalai dt),
Tirupur, Namakkal, Bhavanisagar and Mulanur (both Erode dt) and Musiri (Tiruchirapalli dt), Seetharamapuram and Sulurpet (both Nellore dt), Porumamilla, Badvel and Pulivendala (all Cuddapah dt), and Cuddapah 5 each, Anna University (Chennai district), Tambaram, Ponneri and Ramakrishnarajpet (both Thiruvallur dt), Chidambaram, Virudhachalam and Thozhudur (all Cuddalore dt), Tirukoilur (Villupuram dt), Tiruvidaimaruthur (Thanjavur dt), Mannargudi (Tiruvarur dt), Tiruvadani (Ramanathapuram dt), Illupur (Pudukottai dt), Pudukottai, Chengam, Polur and Sathanur Dam (all Thiruvanamalai dt), Thiruvanamalai, Soolagiri and Uthangarai (both Krishnagiri dt), Paramathi Velur, Gobichettipalayam (Erode dt), Panchapatti and Kulithalai (both Karur dt), Harur (Dharmapuri dt), Periyakulam (Theni dt), Ilayankudi and Karaikudi (both Sivaganga dt), Vedasanthur (Dindugul dt), Amini , Kavarathi, Cumbum (Prakasam dt), Kamalapuram (Cuddapah dt), Thirupathi Airport, Palamaner
(Chittor dt), Chittor, Dharmavaram (Ananthapur dt)4 each, Chennai, DGP Office (Chennai dt), Srimushnam (Cuddalore dt), Tindivanam (Villupuram dt), Karaikal, Grand Anaicut and Peravurani (both Thanjavur dt), Nagapattinam, Tarangambadi (Nagapattinam dt), Alangudi, Arimalam, Keeranur and Perungalur (all Pudukottai dt), Pamban, Ambasamudram, Ayikudi, Manimuthar and Tenkasi (all Tirunelveli dt), Kuzithurai and Nagerkoil (both Kanyakumari dt), Tirupattur, Vaniyambadi and Walajapet (both Vellore dt), Vellore, Pochampalli and Barur (both Krishnagiri dt), Kumarapalayam, Mangalapuram, Senthamangalam and Tiruchengode (all Namakkal dt), Mettur Dam (Salem dt), Yercaud, Coimbatore, Sulur and Periyanaickenpalayam (both Coimbatore dt), Bhavani (Erode dt), Karur, Jayamkondam (Ariyalur dt), Vembavur (Perambalur dt), Thathiengarpet (Tiruchirapalli dt), Melur and Usilampatti (both Madurai dt), Devakottai and Tirupattur (both Sivaganga dt), Sivaganga, Virudhunagar ,Palani
(Dindugul dt), Podili, Yerragondapalam and Kandukur (all Prakasam dt), Mangalagiri (Guntur dt), Lakkireddipalli (Cuddapah dt), Ananthapur Kalyandurg and Rayadurg (all Ananthapur dt), Nandyal, Srisailam, Pakala and Punganur (both Chittor dt), Muddanur (Cuddapah dt), Koppal and Bellary 3 each, Kumbakonam, Thiruvaiyaru (both Thanjavur dt), Thanjavur, Kodavasal (Tiruvarur dt), Kollidam and Mylauduthurai (both Nagapattinam dt), Mudukulathur (Ramanathapuram dt), Tondi, Palayamkottai, Radhapuram and Maniyatchi (both Tirunelveli dt), Tuticorin, Sathankulam, Srivaikundam and Tiruchendur (all Tuticorin dt), Mylaudy (Kanyakumari dt), Ambur and Gudiyatham (both Vellore dt), Ramanathapuram, Palacode and Pappireddipatti (both Dharmapuri dt), Rayakottai, Soolagiri and Thali (all Krishnagiri dt), Rasipuram (Namakkal dt), Coimbatore Airport, Gudalur Bazar and Naduvattam (Nilgiris dt), Chettikulam (Perambalur dt), Samayapuram (Tiruchirapalli dt), Chittampatti and
Tirumangalam (both Madurai dt), Andipatti (Theni dt), Aruppukottai and Rajapalayam (Virudhunagar dt), Dindugal, Theni, Ongole, Darsi and Addanki (both Prakasam dt), Bapatla, Macherla (Guntur dt), Kalwakurthy and Nagarkurnool (both Mahabubnagar dt), Devarakonda and Miryalguda (both Nalgonda dt), Pamidi and Kanekal (both Anantapur dt), Kurnool, Arogyavaram, Proddatur (Cuddapah dt), Thambalapalle (Chittoor dt), Kushtagi (Koppal dt), Chitradurga and Molkalmuru (Chitradurga dt) 2 each and Orathanadu, Papanasam and Thirukattupalli (all Thanjavur dt), Needamangalam, Thiruthuraipoondi and Valangaiman (all Tiruvarur dt), Gandarvakottai, and Karambakudi (both Pudukottai dt), Kamudhi (Ramanathapuram dt), Sankarankoil and Sivagiri (both Tirunelveli dt), Kovilpatti, Ottapidaram and Vilathikulam (all Tuticorin dt), Kanyakumari, Pechipparai and Thuckalay (both Kanyakumari dt), Denkanikottai and Hosur (Krishnagiri dt), Krishnagiri, Attur, Omalur and Vazhapadi
(all Salem dt), Salem, Pollachi, Chinna Kallar and Udumalpet (all Coimbatore dt), Perambalur, Lalgudi and Thuraiyur (both Thiruchirapalli dt), Mettupatti, Sholavandan, Vadipatti and Peraiyur (all Madurai dt), Bodinayakanur and Gudalur (both Theni dt), Theni, Manamadurai and Tiruppuvanam (Sivagangai dt), Watrap, Virudhunagar, Dindugal, Eluru (West Godavari dt), Alur, Avanigadda, Allagada, Holagunda, Atmakur, Pathikonda and Nuzvid (all Krishna dt), Rentachintala, Tandur (Renga Reddy dt), Achampet and Alampur (both Mahabubnagar dt), Ramannapet (Nalgonda dt), Repalle (Guntur dt), Guntur, Nandigama, Madnoor (Nizamabad dt), Gooty (Anantapur dt), Venkatagirikota (Chittoor dt), Gadag, Tavargere (Koppal dt), Bagalkote, Jamakhandi (Bagalkote dt), Sindhanur (Raichur dt), Yagati (Chickmagalur dt), Sargur (Mysore dt), Bandipura and Kollegal (Chamrajanagar dt), Channagiri (Davanagere dt), Rampura, Challakere and C.N.Halli (all Tumkur dt) 1 each.
Khammam recorded the lowest minimum temperature of 17 degree Celsius in the plains of region.
WEATHER FORECAST VALID UNTIL THE MORNING OF 11th NOVEMBER 2009:
Rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at most places over Kerala, Lakshadweep and Coastal Karnataka, and at many places over Tamilnadu, Puducherry, Coastal Andhrapradesh, Rayalaseema and Interior Karnataka and at a few places over Telangana.
HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING:
Scattered heavy with isolated very heavy rain is likely to occur over Kerala and Coastal Karnataka during next 48 hours. Isolated heavy to very heavy rain is likely to occur over Tamilnadu and Puducherry, Coastal andhrapradesh, Interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep area during the same period.
SQUALLY WEATHER WARNING: -
Squally weather with wind speed reaching 50-60 Kmph likely along off Kerala and Karnataka Coast and Over Lakshadweep area during next 48 hours.
FORECAST FOR CHENNAI CITY AND NEIGHBOURHOOD
For next 24 hours: Generally cloudy with few spells of rain or thundershower heavy in some areas.
For next 48 hours: Generally cloudy with few spells of rain or thundershower heavy in some areas.
FARMERS WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TAMIL NADU AND PUDUCHERRY FORECAST VALID UNTIL THE MORNING OF 11th NOVEMBER 2009:
Moderate to rather heavy rain is likely at many places over all the districts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING: Isolated heavy to very heavy rain is likely to occur over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during next 48 hours.
Category:
IMD Report
Well-marked ‘low’ over Arabian Sea may intensify into depression and cross Konkan coast .. http://ping.fm/iHH9s
Arabian Sea ‘low’ may ramp up to depression status
The northeast monsoon has continued to be vigorous over Tamil Nadu, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Kerala while being active over Rayalaseema during the last 24 hours ending Sunday morning.
A weather update from the Chennai Met Centre said that rainfall occurred at most places over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema and at many places over Lakshadweep and at a few places over south interior Karnataka during this period.
Isolated rainfall occurred over north interior Karnataka, north coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.
More in offing
Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at most places over Kerala and at many places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Lakshadweep and at a few places over coastal and south interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema.
Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely to occur over north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and north interior Karnataka.
A warning valid for the period said that isolated heavy to very heavy rain is likely to occur over Kerala and Lakshadweep. Isolated heavy rain is also likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Meanwhile, the causative well-marked ‘low’ over Kanyakumari and neighbourhood has shifted north-northwest to lie over Lakshadweep on Sunday.
India Met Department (IMD) quoted numerical weather guidance to suggest that the gather further strength to concentrate into a depression around Tuesday even while moving north-northwestward largely over the seas.
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over south peninsular India during the next two days. Subsequently, the rainfall belt is likely to extend into Maharashtra and Goa and adjoining Gujarat.
IN AGREEMENT
This IMD outlook is in line with what most international models have been suggesting over the past week or so.
More supportive guidance were available on Sunday with a majority indicating that the Arabian Sea weather system may track north-northeast track along an upper-air ‘highway’ facilitated by an eastward-bound disturbance (western disturbance) dipping low into the Arabian Sea.
This westerly system is expected to cross in from the northwest border during the next two days, the IMD said.
However, a couple of the international models begged to differ, saying that the system may propel north along the west coast to head into south Gujarat or even take a westward turn off the north Konkan coast into the open waters.
All others, including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the precipitation forecast model of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services, were of the view that the system may wade into the Konkan coast and spread itself out thin over west-central India.
The NCEP is forecasting up to 600 per cent above rainfall for the week ending November 15 for a whole swathe of land from coastal and north interior Karnataka, adjoining Rayalaseema and Telangana, madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and even Vidarbha.
Facilitating role
This is being attributed to the facilitating role of the western disturbance, which, while dipping low over the Arabian Sea, would set up a large trough encompassing most of the southeast and central Arabian Sea, peninsular India and southwest Bay of Bengal.
This pan-peninsular trough would wrap itself around the Arabian Sea depression and help wheel it along the upper air highway from over the coastal Karnataka-Konkan coast into the mainland where it would drop its contents.
Meanwhile, the CPC has hinted at the possibility of tropical cyclone development over the southwest Bay around Sri Lanka during November 10 to 16 under the combined impact of the eastward movement of the enhanced precipitation zone from west to east and above-average sea-surface temperatures over equatorial Indian Ocean.
This is in turn attributed to the strong MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) wave over the equatorial Indian Ocean, a periodical upper air wave transiting from the west to the east and which magnifies weather happening under its foot print.
The alternating dry MJO wave, which indicates suppressed rainfall regime, will kick in from around November 22, and would be active December 13, according to model forecasts.
The Forecast
Strong signal of rain-generating MJO wave over peninsular seas.
Well-marked ‘low’ over Arabian Sea may intensify into depression.
May cross Konkan coast and travel north-northeast to bring heavy rains over coastal and north interior Karnataka; adjoining Rayalaseema and Telengana, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and Vidarbha.
Up to 600 pc above normal rains likely over these regions during week ahead.
Likely storm development in southwest Bay of Bengal basin during November 7-16, says US model.
A weather update from the Chennai Met Centre said that rainfall occurred at most places over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema and at many places over Lakshadweep and at a few places over south interior Karnataka during this period.
Isolated rainfall occurred over north interior Karnataka, north coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.
More in offing
Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at most places over Kerala and at many places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Lakshadweep and at a few places over coastal and south interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema.
Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely to occur over north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and north interior Karnataka.
A warning valid for the period said that isolated heavy to very heavy rain is likely to occur over Kerala and Lakshadweep. Isolated heavy rain is also likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Meanwhile, the causative well-marked ‘low’ over Kanyakumari and neighbourhood has shifted north-northwest to lie over Lakshadweep on Sunday.
India Met Department (IMD) quoted numerical weather guidance to suggest that the gather further strength to concentrate into a depression around Tuesday even while moving north-northwestward largely over the seas.
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over south peninsular India during the next two days. Subsequently, the rainfall belt is likely to extend into Maharashtra and Goa and adjoining Gujarat.
IN AGREEMENT
This IMD outlook is in line with what most international models have been suggesting over the past week or so.
More supportive guidance were available on Sunday with a majority indicating that the Arabian Sea weather system may track north-northeast track along an upper-air ‘highway’ facilitated by an eastward-bound disturbance (western disturbance) dipping low into the Arabian Sea.
This westerly system is expected to cross in from the northwest border during the next two days, the IMD said.
However, a couple of the international models begged to differ, saying that the system may propel north along the west coast to head into south Gujarat or even take a westward turn off the north Konkan coast into the open waters.
All others, including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the precipitation forecast model of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services, were of the view that the system may wade into the Konkan coast and spread itself out thin over west-central India.
The NCEP is forecasting up to 600 per cent above rainfall for the week ending November 15 for a whole swathe of land from coastal and north interior Karnataka, adjoining Rayalaseema and Telangana, madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and even Vidarbha.
Facilitating role
This is being attributed to the facilitating role of the western disturbance, which, while dipping low over the Arabian Sea, would set up a large trough encompassing most of the southeast and central Arabian Sea, peninsular India and southwest Bay of Bengal.
This pan-peninsular trough would wrap itself around the Arabian Sea depression and help wheel it along the upper air highway from over the coastal Karnataka-Konkan coast into the mainland where it would drop its contents.
Meanwhile, the CPC has hinted at the possibility of tropical cyclone development over the southwest Bay around Sri Lanka during November 10 to 16 under the combined impact of the eastward movement of the enhanced precipitation zone from west to east and above-average sea-surface temperatures over equatorial Indian Ocean.
This is in turn attributed to the strong MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) wave over the equatorial Indian Ocean, a periodical upper air wave transiting from the west to the east and which magnifies weather happening under its foot print.
The alternating dry MJO wave, which indicates suppressed rainfall regime, will kick in from around November 22, and would be active December 13, according to model forecasts.
The Forecast
Strong signal of rain-generating MJO wave over peninsular seas.
Well-marked ‘low’ over Arabian Sea may intensify into depression.
May cross Konkan coast and travel north-northeast to bring heavy rains over coastal and north interior Karnataka; adjoining Rayalaseema and Telengana, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and Vidarbha.
Up to 600 pc above normal rains likely over these regions during week ahead.
Likely storm development in southwest Bay of Bengal basin during November 7-16, says US model.
Category:
Cyclones,
IMD Report,
North East Monsoon,
Weather Updates
RT @moonrutopnews: Rain-related toll touches 21 in Tamil Nadu - Press Trust of India http://url4.eu/iPOY
Showers for north TN coast and Chennai to continue well into noon of Tuesday, 10-Nov-09 .. http://yfrog.com/15vu5p
Satellite also shows, cloud activity getting subdued and disorganized along eastern side of peninsula .. http://yfrog.com/jas43j
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