Tuesday, April 27, 2010
7pm, http://ow.ly/i/1h2d .... heavy showers over Central, North central Kerala, over Nilgiris (TN) and into South Karnataka.
What is "TXLAPS".?? and something about monsoon - 2010
TXLAPS (Tropical eXtended Area Prediction System)
(A joint effort between Northern Territory Regional Office and NMOC) TXLAPS is a version of LAPS customised to describe the tropical atmosphere. In particular an attempt is made by Australian Weather Bureau to capture areas of convection that are observable as cloud formations on satellite imagery and which can lead to
the development of tropical depressions. In addition to available conventional data, input to the analysis includes bogus moisture values derived from satellite cloud imagery. Tropical Cyclones are incorporated into the analysis using a bogus system operated by Darwin RSMC staff. The first guess field for this analysis is a forecast from GASP. TXLAPS currently operates over the domain 48oN to 45oS and 60oE to 143oW with a grid spacing of 0.375o.
Thanks: Australian Weather Bureau
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
As SSET(one of our regular reader) asked the pictures depicts the wind pattern at specified level and the colors represents the speed in knots and the arrow head shows the direction of the flow.
However region specific data will be more useful and pronouncing.
It is too early and winds will be pseudo in nature. It has to be attested with other factors also. Any how it is pre monsoon period and the developments indicates that this year 2010 monsoon may be NORMAL.{But one has to be cautious in that also.)
Cross Equatorial Flow has not strengthened. ITCZ is below 5 Deg North and NOT pronounced in our region.
Posted by Mr. Anonymous
(A joint effort between Northern Territory Regional Office and NMOC) TXLAPS is a version of LAPS customised to describe the tropical atmosphere. In particular an attempt is made by Australian Weather Bureau to capture areas of convection that are observable as cloud formations on satellite imagery and which can lead to
the development of tropical depressions. In addition to available conventional data, input to the analysis includes bogus moisture values derived from satellite cloud imagery. Tropical Cyclones are incorporated into the analysis using a bogus system operated by Darwin RSMC staff. The first guess field for this analysis is a forecast from GASP. TXLAPS currently operates over the domain 48oN to 45oS and 60oE to 143oW with a grid spacing of 0.375o.
Thanks: Australian Weather Bureau
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
As SSET(one of our regular reader) asked the pictures depicts the wind pattern at specified level and the colors represents the speed in knots and the arrow head shows the direction of the flow.
However region specific data will be more useful and pronouncing.
It is too early and winds will be pseudo in nature. It has to be attested with other factors also. Any how it is pre monsoon period and the developments indicates that this year 2010 monsoon may be NORMAL.{But one has to be cautious in that also.)
Cross Equatorial Flow has not strengthened. ITCZ is below 5 Deg North and NOT pronounced in our region.
Posted by Mr. Anonymous
Tamilnadu "Anthi Mazhai"
I hope you consider heavy rain as the rainfall greater than equal to 65.0mm.
Evening TS [Anthi Mazhai] from moderately developed towering cumulus will last for minimum 20-40 minutes and rainfall will be around 3-5 cm. The down burst will bring the temperature down by 2-3 degree. Occasionally developed TS will last for more than one hour and accumulated rainfall will be 6-8 cm.[This is w.r.to Tamilnadu, not the NE states where the night time TS gives copious rain]
Posted by Mr. Anonymous
Evening TS [Anthi Mazhai] from moderately developed towering cumulus will last for minimum 20-40 minutes and rainfall will be around 3-5 cm. The down burst will bring the temperature down by 2-3 degree. Occasionally developed TS will last for more than one hour and accumulated rainfall will be 6-8 cm.[This is w.r.to Tamilnadu, not the NE states where the night time TS gives copious rain]
Posted by Mr. Anonymous
http://ow.ly/i/1gXM ... Heavy showers along central, North Kerala and over Western ghats region of W. Tamilnadu.
4:30pm, Thunder cells also visible over N. Kerala, N. Coastal Karnataka, N-E Andhra, Orissa and S-W Bengal .. http://ow.ly/i/1gVL
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Sahara Dust Storm
The region affected by this dust storm includes not just the Sahara Desert but also the Sahel, a semi-arid grassland region bordering the massive desert on the south. The dust plume hovers primarily over Burkina Faso and Mali. Straddling the border between Burkina Faso and Niger, an especially thick layer of dust appears to push southeastward. The billowy appearance of the dust and the relatively clear skies to the southeast suggest that this is an advancing wall of dust.
Top heat stays pinned down to East
The ‘trough triple' continues to bear typical pre-monsoon weather over the north-west, east and south while keeping the top heat pinned to the east and adjoining east-central India.
FRESH WESTERLY
Heat wave conditions prevailed over isolated pockets of Bihar, east Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Vidarbha, Telangana, north coastal Orissa and north Rajasthan.
The spike in mercury over north Rajasthan could be traced to the arrival phase of a fresh western disturbance, whose ‘hot head' up front induces incremental warming of the atmosphere.
Maximum temperatures may rise by 1 to 2 deg Celsius over parts of northwest and central India during the next two days and decrease thereafter from weather triggered by the westerly system.
The warming is caused by the rising motion of air in the westerly's front from a heated up surface. It cools down the air with gain in height and sets up weather in dust storms, rain or thundershowers during this time of the year.
No significant change is seen in day temperatures over east India during this period, an IMD outlook said.
TROUGH TRIPLE
Yesterday's trough triple were more or less traceable at their respective locations in the northwest, east and south of the country.
The most prominent among them is the north to south-aligned one running down from east Bihar to the extreme south of Tamil Nadu. It snaked down across Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, east Vidarbha, Telangana and interior Karnataka.
Additionally, it featured embedded upper air cyclonic circulations hanging in over east Bihar, east Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu and neighbourhood.
Towards the northwest, an upper air cyclonic circulation induced by the inward movement of a western disturbance was traced to central Pakistan across the international border.
The eastward movement of the combine could bring it drifting into position over northwest India over the next few days.
The IMD has said in its outlook that a fresh western disturbance is likely to affect the western Himalayan region from Monday onwards. It could go on to affect the western Himalayan region over the next four days.
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
Satellite imagery indicated the presence of convective clouds capable of generating rain or thundershowers over parts of the north-eastern States, south-east Bay of Bengal, south Andaman Sea, south Arabian Sea, the Comorin area and the Gulf of Mannar.
Low to medium clouds (partly-clouded conditions) were seen over the western Himalayan region and south peninsular India.
The forecast, valid for the next two days, said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya, while it would be scattered over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
A warning valid for the period said that an isolated thunder squall may occur over the north-eastern States, West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, Orissa and Jharkhand.
The proceedings could perk up further from Saturday as the western disturbance livens up the resident trough leading to a more active mop-up of moisture from the Bay of Bengal.
Presently, the westerly system would spark off rain or thundershowers over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh during the next 24 hours before scaling up in intensity.
The rains would filter into adjoining plains of the north-west, with Uttarkhand, Punjab, Haryana, north Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh bracing to slip under the same from Wednesday.
Scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, Kerala and coastal Karnataka during this period, in tandem with the fluctuating fortunes of the north-south trough.
Rains would be isolated over Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, south Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, Lakshadweep, interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
FRESH WESTERLY
Heat wave conditions prevailed over isolated pockets of Bihar, east Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Vidarbha, Telangana, north coastal Orissa and north Rajasthan.
The spike in mercury over north Rajasthan could be traced to the arrival phase of a fresh western disturbance, whose ‘hot head' up front induces incremental warming of the atmosphere.
Maximum temperatures may rise by 1 to 2 deg Celsius over parts of northwest and central India during the next two days and decrease thereafter from weather triggered by the westerly system.
The warming is caused by the rising motion of air in the westerly's front from a heated up surface. It cools down the air with gain in height and sets up weather in dust storms, rain or thundershowers during this time of the year.
No significant change is seen in day temperatures over east India during this period, an IMD outlook said.
TROUGH TRIPLE
Yesterday's trough triple were more or less traceable at their respective locations in the northwest, east and south of the country.
The most prominent among them is the north to south-aligned one running down from east Bihar to the extreme south of Tamil Nadu. It snaked down across Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, east Vidarbha, Telangana and interior Karnataka.
Additionally, it featured embedded upper air cyclonic circulations hanging in over east Bihar, east Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu and neighbourhood.
Towards the northwest, an upper air cyclonic circulation induced by the inward movement of a western disturbance was traced to central Pakistan across the international border.
The eastward movement of the combine could bring it drifting into position over northwest India over the next few days.
The IMD has said in its outlook that a fresh western disturbance is likely to affect the western Himalayan region from Monday onwards. It could go on to affect the western Himalayan region over the next four days.
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
Satellite imagery indicated the presence of convective clouds capable of generating rain or thundershowers over parts of the north-eastern States, south-east Bay of Bengal, south Andaman Sea, south Arabian Sea, the Comorin area and the Gulf of Mannar.
Low to medium clouds (partly-clouded conditions) were seen over the western Himalayan region and south peninsular India.
The forecast, valid for the next two days, said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya, while it would be scattered over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
A warning valid for the period said that an isolated thunder squall may occur over the north-eastern States, West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, Orissa and Jharkhand.
The proceedings could perk up further from Saturday as the western disturbance livens up the resident trough leading to a more active mop-up of moisture from the Bay of Bengal.
Presently, the westerly system would spark off rain or thundershowers over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh during the next 24 hours before scaling up in intensity.
The rains would filter into adjoining plains of the north-west, with Uttarkhand, Punjab, Haryana, north Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh bracing to slip under the same from Wednesday.
Scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, Kerala and coastal Karnataka during this period, in tandem with the fluctuating fortunes of the north-south trough.
Rains would be isolated over Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, south Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, Lakshadweep, interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
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Rain map of 26-Apr, Heavy and widespread over N-E states and South Extreme peninsula .. http://ow.ly/i/1gSs
Afternoon showers to continue over S-W coast of Peninsula over Karnataka, Kerala and South Extreme Tamilnadu .. http://ow.ly/i/1gPd
12:30pm, South extreme peninsula over South TN & Kerala are heavily cloudy. Getting reports of some rain .. http://ow.ly/i/1gPa
All thru the night the South Bay East of Srilanka was very active with lots of thunder storms .. http://ow.ly/i/1gJt
8:30am, S-E coast of Tamilnadu is having an isolated thunder cell and South Gulf of Mannar is also active ... http://ow.ly/i/1gJt
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