Monday, November 19, 2012

"03B" - 4pm Satellite Visible shot.


Isolated showers expected for S.Tamilnadu, S.Kerala during next 2/3 days.. may increase after that.

Showers expected along S.Andhra coast, Chennai and N.Tamilnadu coast from evening of 20-Nov (or) from morning of 21-Nov http://ow.ly/foIms 
Next moderate W.D is expected to reach Kashmir by evening of 21-Nov.. and expected to last for 3 days.

"03B" - Stationary, Dry and weakening. Rain expected !

4pm, Latest satellite IR shows some fresh convective activity around the core of "03B".
Positioned almost stationary at 15N, 86E.



IMD warning at 2pm
---------------------------------------

The depression over westcentral  Bay of Bengal  remained practically stationary and lay centred at 
1130 hrs IST of today the 19
th
 November 2012 near latitude 15.0
0
N and longitude 86.5

0
E, about 700 km 
east-northeast  of  Chennai  and  450  km  southeast  of  Visakhapatnam.  The  system  would  move  westsouthwestwards towards south Andhra Pradesh and north Tamil Nadu coasts and weaken further during 
next 24 hours.

Under the influence of this system, moderate rainfall would occur at many places over south coastal 
Andhra Pradesh, north coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry on 20
th
 and 21
st
 November. Sea condition along 
and off Andhra Pradesh coast will be rough during next 24 hours. Fishermen along Andhra Pradesh, north 
Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts are advised to be cautious while venturing into sea during next 24 hours





Both NOGAPS and COLA model suggest a S.coastal Andhra landfall as Depression or LOW on noon/evening of 21-Nov.


It may weaken to a LOW over sea itself on 20-Nov.


Showers expected along S.Andhra coast, Chennai and N.Tamilnadu coast from evening of 20-Nov (or) from morning of 21-Nov.



RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 10.15am, Clear skies, Sunny and Warm. Dry conditions prevails.

#chennai - Airport records 20.5 deg C today morning. Now 10:50am, skies have 90% cleared out with Deep blue skies.

"03B" is now a DRY Depression

"03B" is now a DRY Depression and have crawled S-W during the past 12hrs.
Now weakening fast.!
10am latest satellite IR shows the circulation with almost NO convective activity. Very rare to see this over Bay and that too this time of year !

JTWC warning at 8:30am IST
---------------------------------------------

POSITION NEAR 15.2N 86.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03B LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
VOID OF CONVECTION AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA NOW SHOWS WIND 
SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. AN 182123Z AMSU 
IMAGE SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM AND IS BEGINNING TO 
SHOW SOME ELONGATION OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 
03B REMAINS IN A HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT. DYNAMIC 
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SYSTEM IN THIS HIGH VWS ENVIRONMENT, WHICH 
ALONG WITH THE IMMINENT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, WILL FURTHER DISSIPATE 
THE SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT 
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED 
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
190000Z IS 12 FEET.