Monday, December 07, 2009

Expected LOW over Bay pops up "96B"



AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.3N 89.9E,


APPROXIMATELY 630 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED

MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS STARTED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH

SPORADIC DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER, OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE

CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO BUILD TOWARDS THE LLCC, WITH A SLIGHT

INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS

LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, WHICH

IS PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT IS ALSO CREATING A MODERATE

TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL

PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE ORGANIZATION

OF THE LLCC AND MODERATE VWS VALUES, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE

DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24

HOURS IS POOR.
NOAA visible shot of the presently brewing LOW over Bay .. http://ping.fm/y9vJ8
A fresh western disturbance is likely to affect western Himalayan region from 9th December
IMD:: The cyclonic circulation over southwest Bay in lower level is likely to persist during next 3 days with gradual intensification
On 6-Dec, Pechiparai (Kanyakumarai dt) recorded rainfall of 5 Centimetre.. The only place in TN which rcvd notable showers on 6-Dec.
Cloud formation over Bay is almost same as that of yesterday same time .. http://yfrog.com/326tpj .. http://ping.fm/cjOiZ
South-central and south-east Bay was very active all thru the day .. http://yfrog.com/326tpj
Chennai - A mild evening now 6:55pm... we might have wet evening on 11-Dec-09. Watch OuT !!
RT @thripthyn: The much-hyped "towards-singara-chennai" paintings along the mount road have been mostly washed out by the rain....
UN climate conference opens in Copenhagen .. http://is.gd/5eVSZ
Earth Checkup: 10 Signs of the Planet's Health .. http://is.gd/5eVSg
Chennai - Temperature now 12:49pm.. 28.7°C. No threat of Rain all thru the day. We'll have some cloud formation but not threatening.
Chennai - Bright sunny day with mild low cloud formation and movement from perfect east-north-east.
NCMRWF model predicts .. Heavy showers forecast for Chennai, North TN coast for 10,11,12,13-Dec .. http://ping.fm/SwFgQ

North-west India too bracing to receive showers

Isolated to scattered shower activity has been forecast to continue over the southern peninsula during this week amid indications that northwest India may be bracing to receive first meaningful spell during the next.




An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said on Sunday that the previous day's cyclonic circulation over southeast Bay of Bengal had since shifted west to the southwest Bay closer to the Tami Nadu and Sri Lanka coasts.



This cyclonic circulation over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal in the lower level is likely to move west-northwestwards, according to the IMD.



This outlook is being shared by at least two international models, the Canadian Meteorological Centre and the Weather Forecast Centre of the Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan.



The Canadian Met Centre is of the view that the cyclonic circulation to the southeast of Sri Lanka and coastal Tamil Nadu would track west-northwest to reach closer to coastal Tamil Nadu during December 7 to 12.



According to Mr Hsiao-Chung Tsai and Mr Kuo-Chen Lu of the Taiwanese Central Weather Bureau, the southwest Bay of Bengal would be active with unremitting convection during the next week.



The European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts says that a cyclonic circulation would be active over the tip of the peninsula on four days from December 10. South Kerala and south Tamil Nadu cold receive resultant rains for as many days.



The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction is of the view that rains could be expected over Sri Lanka and coastal Tamil Nadu during the week beginning Sunday. Parts of northwest India would also witness light to moderate rains during this period.



The IMD attributes the likely rains from an easterly wave being ignited by the convective activity over southwest and adjoining south-central Bay of Bengal. The rains are shown to spread over the entire southern peninsula.



During the week that follows (December 14-22), northwest India could be the surprise beneficiary of a burst of rainfall from western disturbance activity, according to the US forecaster. Punjab, Haryana, west Uttar Pradesh and north Rajasthan stand to make gains from the rain.



Meanwhile, the IMD updates said that the cool northwesterly winds would continue to prevail over Indo-Gangetic plains over the next week. But, subsequently, the intensity of the winds would increase.



Satellite cloud imagery showed convective clouds over parts of south Bay of Bengal, south Andaman Sea and south Arabian Sea. Low to medium-high clouds were seen over parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Arunachal Pradesh and south peninsular India.





Forecast up to Tuesday spoke about possibility of isolated rainfall activity over extreme south peninsular India during next three days.



Isolated rain or snow has been forecast over the western Himalayan region and isolated rain or thundershowers over Northeastern States during next three days.



On Sunday, minimum temperatures were between 10 to 15 deg Celsius over parts of plains of northwest, central and east India and adjoining Maharashtra. The lowest minimum temperature was 5 deg Celsius at Amritsar.



No significant changes in minimum temperatures are likely over northwest India during next 48 hours.



Forecast until Friday said that a fresh western disturbance would affect western Himalayan region and cause scattered light to moderate rain or snow.



Around the same time, a fresh easterly wave will affect extreme south peninsular India causing scattered to fairly widespread rain or thundershower.
Latest analysis shows the Bay LOW and circulation is situated east-south-east of Srilanka .. http://yfrog.com/4eekwj
Models indicate that the LOW will materialize on 9-Dec and then move East and crash into north Tamilnadu coast .. http://ping.fm/H06ZP
Present potential LOW over Bay is not going to materialize till 9-Dec .. By that time the MJO will move into WET phase.
satellite now, today morning, shows a slightly dis-organized cloud formation and far spread .. http://yfrog.com/aug8tj .. DRY MJO may be!!
Satellite yesterday evening showed a good cloud mass over South-Central Bay .. http://ping.fm/iP9Yp ..
Chennai - Another cold morning 22.9°C (6:29am)