Wednesday, July 18, 2012

RT @axharr: #sunnyday #sky #trivandrum (3:36pm)

Showers over entire N-E states to reduce after 21-Jul.

#chennai - 4pm, NO sea breeze yet!, NO low cloud formations and thin High cloud cover continues.
Heavy rains for Maharastra coast to continue from today till 22-Jul and beyond ..

Heavy rains forecast for entire E.India till 22-Jul, On 20/21-Jul heavy rains forecast for E.Uttarpradesh ..

From 20-Jul, Heavy rains for Orissa, S.Chatisgarh and into E.Maharastra ..

If the N-W Bay low forms and moves west then Heavy rains forecast for Chatisgarh, E,central maharastra from 21-24-Jul.

@akwaghmare >> Very less rains forecast for West Maharastra (rain shadow of W.Ghats) till 20-Jul

Monsoon showers are expected to push into North India, #Delhi from evening of 20-Jul .
2pm, Heavy showers along S,central Maharastra coast, And heavy rains yet to reach N.Maharastra coast, S-E.Gujarat..

2pm, Heavy rains seen along Bihar, most of Bengal and Orissa ...
2 UAC can be seen over Arabian sea, one along S-E Gujarat & N.Maharastra coast, another along S.Maharastra coast..

The Maharastra coast UAC will persist along #Mumbai for another 24hrs...

On 20/21-Jul a UAC is also expected over N.Karnataka, N-W.Andhra & S.Maharastra ..

Strong monsoon current is seen reaching coastal Maharastra, S.coastal Gujarat. In next 2 days it's expected to be strong

On 21-Jul, IMD WRF models does not support a strong N-W Bay circulation but IMD GFS supports a good circulation..

Most models suggest a N-W corner Bay circulation on 21-Jul and a weaker circulation over E.Uttarpradesh on the same day !!
RT @shanpati: #Mumbai,sky is densely overcast with grey clouds.Short & sharp rains at time intervals.Not much rains in suburbs ! 2:11pm
On 20-Jul, 2 circulations expected. One over E.Uttarpradesh and another over N-N-W corner of Bay along Bengal coast..

Offshore trough along S-W coast persists and seen upto S.Karnataka coast .. will persist for another 3 days..

A LOW pressure is expected over E.Uttarpradesh on 20-Jul and will move West .. 
#chennai - had a heavily cloudy day till 12pm, and now 1:14pm it's clearing up. Records a mild 31.0°C at 12:40pm

Today, Vertical.V is mild over S.Karnataka, S,central.Andhra, N.Tamilnadu & #chennai .. so less possibility of rain.

A slightly high Vertical.V along Coastal Andhra after 6pm .. this may lead to some T.showers over S,central,coastal Andhra.

For next 24hrs, Vertical.V is HIGH along N.Maharastra coast, Foot hills of Himalayas and entire N-E states.. Heavy rains ahead.!
RT @happynottykid: Back to Mumbai and the rain and the buses!! 
RT @dsanjeevkumar: Awesome Weather in #Chennai #Guindy.. Cool and Slight Drizzle.. Excellent.. :) @weatherofindia (8:17am)

RT @ganpat000: @weatherofindia No Rain in #Delhi, sunshine Records 34 (10.30 am)

Sikkim cut off from rest of the country after landslides ...

More Heavy rains coming up in next 48hrs for Sikkim, N.Bengal and North N-E states..

Floods in North Bengal affect 80,000 ... 

Indian Monsoon: What's brewing in the Pacific is more likely a Modokai than a normal El Niño

Just when it looked as if a traditional El Niño was getting its sea legs, the event is now looking a bit less canonical.  This prompted the following analysis. This post is jointly written by Rajan Alexander who administers the blog Rajan’s Take: Climate Change and Rajesh Kapadia who administers the blog, Vagaries of the Weather.

If we take a look at last week’s US-CFS v2 forecasts for Niño regions 1+2 it could be observed that the warmest anomalies have been centred in the eastern portion of the ENSO monitoring area.

However, also seen in the forecast, there is now more of a potential for the temperatures to be much lower. One explanation is that the Niño maybe dying off!!  The only other explanation is that the heat is merely transferring westwards - a fact validated through the latest Sea Surface Temperatures (STT) departures.

Till recently, it was thought that the El Niño had only one mode - a periodic warming in the eastern tropical Pacific that occurs along the coast of South America. In 2004, it was discovered to have also a second mode that occurs around 12% of the time.

A Japanese team led by T. Yamagata (that included a prominent Indian climatologist, Dr Venkata Ratnam) noticed the 2004 El Niño was warming more strongly in the Central Pacific region and accordingly stumbled on the discovery of its second mode by sheer accident. They called such an El Nino as Modokai, which is a classical Japanese word which means similar but different”.  The phenomenon is also known as a Pseudo or Central Pacific (CP) El Niño.