From Jim's Blog:: www.accuweather.com
-A tropical depression apparently gained tropical cyclone status for a short time before heading inland over the state of West Bengal south of Kolkata, India. Landfall happened late last week. Since then, this low has drifted towards the northwest and into the state of Jharkhand.
Rainfall has been substantial, often 10-20 cm, over the aforesaid states together with Bihar and westernmost reaches of Bangladesh. One amount was near 23 cm at Bankura, West Bengal.
-Looking forward, it would seem that local heavy and even very heavy falls of rain (say, 10-20 cm), will happen northwest into the plain of north-central India as well as the foothills of western Nepal and neighboring India. Time frame here is through at least midweek and maybe Friday. Interaction between the fading Monsoon low and the leading edge of the Westerlies will raise the potential for higher rainfall, locally, along the foothills of northern India to western Nepal.
--As to the state of the South West Monsoon, it would seem to have begun its yearly withdrawal from the northwest, as is pretty much in keeping with the historical record. "Attempts" by the GFS numerical forecast model to bring rain towards the Pakistan border came to nought, best as I can tell. And there is no longer any hint of rain for the desert borderlands nor the Indus plain. I think that, with respect to summer rains of 2009, the books can be shut.
