The South-West Monsoon for 2013 may get tacit support from an ‘indifferent Pacific’ in the distance but may have to contend with whims of its own waters in the neighbourhood.
Equatorial Pacific is expected to remain in a neutral phase, with no El Nino (rains driving away to South America coast) or La Nina (rain and storminess in West Pacific, closer to mainland India) evolving.
NEGATIVE PHASE
Regional Institute for Climate Change (RIGC) at Tokyo is of the view that a negative Indian Ocean Dipole is like to spring up in the Indian Ocean this summer, which can affect monsoon prospects here.
RIGC is a research centre under the Japanese Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology.
Negative Indian Ocean Dipole refers to the anomalous warming of East Indian Ocean relative to the West, which in the past has hit the performance of a concurrent Indian monsoon. But the rain outlook for June-July-August put out by RIGC does not show a major departure from the normal, except along the west coast and adjoining central India (west Madhya Pradesh).
RAIN OUTLOOK
Gujarat and rest of North-West are forecast to receive normal rainfall during June-July-August quarter, according to RIGC forecasts.
As for regional forecasts, the RIGC said that Australia and most parts of Brazil would see a colder than normal condition as the southern hemisphere slips into autumn. Southern Africa will stay neutral.
COLDER SPRING
In the north, Western Canada, US Northwest, and South-East Asia will witness colder than normal weather during the spring.
On the other hand, the RIGC predicted warmer-than-normal climate for most parts of Russia, Europe, India, Central and Eastern US, and the Far-East during the spring. Southern China, Central US, Central Asia, West Asia and Europe would witness less than normal precipitation during the spring.
WETTER S.E. ASIA
As the Northern Hemisphere summer comes into its own, Central Africa will be in a drier than normal condition while South-East Asia will be in a wetter than normal condition.
Both these are blamed on the negative Indian Ocean Dipole event.
