Monday, August 16, 2010

Heavy thunder showers over North, N.central and N-W Tamilnadu.
Turbulence in sea claims two lives in Kerala ...
RT @ibwhitty: @mr_mustard Severe monsoon weather in Tucson night of August 15 ~ (via @searchnetmedia)
Wet weather over South seen lasting longer ...
More on LA NINA effect ...
More on Leh Rainfall and cloudburst ...
spectacular place, probably on earth !! ...
Foundation of IPCC's Global Warming Theory Falsified by New Peer Reviewed Study ...

Wet weather over South seen lasting longer

The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University sees ongoing wet weather in the South and Interior Peninsula leading to moderate to heavy precipitation during most part of this week.
In its update based on initial conditions obtaining on Saturday, the IRI said that parts of Kerala, South and Interior Tamil Nadu and adjoining South Interior Karnataka may witness heavy recorded rainfall.

Heavy rains have also been forecast for the plains of North-West India covering parts of Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Uttarakhand and West Uttar Pradesh.
Spill-over rains are indicated for areas in East-Central Pakistan adjoining the international border across West Rajasthan.
The IRI has also forecast very heavy to extremely heavy rains for parts of West Nepal and adjoining Himalayan foothills along Uttar Pradesh.
The causative systems continue to be the ones active over India — the monsoon trough, upper air cyclonic circulations over North-West Rajasthan and the latest one traced to over Orissa and adjoining Chhattisgarh.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Sunday also indicated a slight turning of flows over the South Peninsula and a veritable offshore trough along the Southeast Coast.
During the last 24 hours ending in the afternoon, widespread rainfall has been reported from Assam, Meghalaya, East Madhya Pradesh, Lakshadweep and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
It was fairly widespread over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and the remaining parts of Central India, North Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal, the West Coast and extreme South Peninsular India.
A satellite picture on Sunday signalled the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of the Indo-Gangetic plains, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, East, Central and South Peninsular India, East-Central and South Bay of Bengal, North Andaman Sea and South-East Arabian Sea.
The IMD has warned of isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, the North-Eastern States, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next two days.
An outlook from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggested that the southerly flows feeding the trough along the southeast coast may taper off by Friday.
Fresh flows over Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal might get triggered by early next week, until which time a brief interlude would set in, as per the ECMWF outlook.
An IMD forecast until Wednesday said that widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over the West Himalayas, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, the North-Eastern States, the West Coast, Lakshadweep and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over the Indo-Gangetic plains outside Rajasthan.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Orissa and Jharkhand on Monday and decrease thereafter.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Madhya Pradesh, Interior Maharashtra and the rest of South Peninsular India.
However, rainfall activity may decrease over Tamil Nadu after two days, the IMD outlook said.

More on LA NINA effect

To some extend I too support LA NINA effect. The warmer west Pacific [Asian Region]and to some extend Indian Ocean plays a crucial role in 2010 Indian Summer Monsoon. 

[1] The orientation of High pressure in Indian Ocean [Perhaps Mascarene High]and the cross equatorial winds are stronger and lash Indian west coast above 15 Deg Latitude.
[2]Is it due to weak trade winds in association with LA NINA ?
[3] Historical records of the year 1931 is somewhat identical with 2010 SWM pattern.
[4] Accordingly Karnataka may get rainfall in late AUG or early SEP. But NEM may or may NOT fair well. 

[5] LA NINA may prevail for longer run say 24 to 36 months or even beyond.
[6]In that case SWM 2011 may not be good for Karnataka.
[Purely this is my presumption based on historical records and hear says from weather skeptics.]

Posted by Kaneyen 

More on Leh Rainfall and cloudburst

13th August, 2010 - Times of India

The cloudburst has again brought out the glaring lack of adequate documentation on such sporadic weather events. J Srinivasan, chairman of Divecha Centre for Climate Change and head of Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, tells TOI's Jayashree Nandi about the need for extensive research on extreme weather events like the cloudburst. Excerpts:

What do you think of the cloudburst disaster at Leh?
Cloudbursts are events in which high rainfall occur over a very small area, in a very short time span (typically more than 100 mm/hour for a few hours). We do not have much data about this phenomenon. However, such events have occurred earlier in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh. For instance, many people were killed in a cloudburst at Pithoragarh (Uttarakhand) on August 7, 2009. These events are rare in Jammu and Kashmir and hence the Leh cloudburst was unexpected. Extreme rainfall events (rainfall more than 100 mm/day) have increased by 50% during the past 50 years. This year we had floods in Pakistan, Gujarat and now in Jammu and Kashmir.

How long did it rain in Leh and across how much area?
India Meteorological Department data says it rained between 1.30 am and 2 am in Leh on August 6. A weather station near Leh recorded only 12.8 mm of rainfall in 24 hours. These events are extremely localized in an area probably less than 30 square kilometres. In August, the normal rainfall in Leh is 15.4 mm and the highest recorded in this season was 51 mm. But this time, the rainfall was probably much higher than that.

Have such events taken place earlier? Is it similar to 2005 Mumbai floods?
Such events occur every year in mountainous regions. Many events are not reported because of insufficient data. For instance, if it happens in some remote areas of Himachal Pradesh and if there is no a weather station close by and there is no habitation in those areas, the event doesn't get reported. Leh cloudburst is comparable to Mumbai floods because it rained for over 12 hours in Mumbai.

Could this be due to climate change?
IMD observations show that events of extreme rainfall have increased by 50% during the past 50 years. And, most climate models predict that global warming will increase such events. We cannot claim that a specific extreme event is due to global warming although we know that the probability of such events will increase as the earth becomes warmer.

Have any new observations been made on climate science recently?
In March, this year a disputed island on the Bangladesh-India border called Talpatti disappeared completely. Such events will occur more often in the future. The impact of sea level rise will not be seen in one or two years because the changes are slow. Similarly in case of temperature rise, IPCC predicts that there will be three degrees rise in 100 years. So that means a .03 degrees rise every year. We will not notice these changes easily unless we look at the long-term trend.

Do you think our policies are robust enough to deal with climate change?
Global warming will have serious impact on our life within 30 to 40 years. We have to act immediately because the transition from the present fossil-fuel dependent economy to one based on renewable energy will take many decades. Sadly, the vision and leadership on global warming has been lacking.

Foundation of IPCC's Global Warming Theory Falsified by New Peer Reviewed Study

A new peer reviewed study by McShane and Wyner 2010, published in Annals of Applied Statistics has falsified the Hockey Stick graph, as found in the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Third Assessment Report' (TAR-2001). Why this graph is important is that it was touted as the very foundation of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) theory.

The IPCC made the hockey stick the centrepiece of IPCC TAR 2001. This graph was plastered all over the report. It occupied a very prominent and central place in the Summary for Policymakers, it is shown twice in the Assessment Report in Chapter 2, it is shown twice in the Synthesis Report, and it leads to their conclusions: temperatures in the latter half of the twentieth century were unprecedented.

Because of the centrality of Hockey Stick graph in AGW, it made climate alarmism extremely vulnerable as once you falsify the graph, you falsify the whole theory of AGW.

There is a vital part of any science: replication. Do it again. If we observe something, and we describe what we did and other people can repeat our experiment and observe the same result, then we can conclude we have correctly observed what is true. 

McShane and Wyner did just that - proved Mann’s experiment cannot be replicated using the same data and method. It not only falsified the experiment but since the hockey stick was central to the AGW theory, it also falsifies the latter. If the confidence in the science cannot match the pain of solution, then the AGW falls off the public agenda.

spectacular place, probably on earth !!

Today I travelled from Bangalore to Mumbai(navi mumbai) by volvo bus. From satara, pune, lonavale, navi mumbai - entire huge mountains, waterfalls, streams, lush velvet greenary, huge dense canopy of trees, cows grazing at horizon (lush meadows), windmills, dense clouds touching almost ground- rains, mountain tunnels - sight is like beautiful heaven. Entrie route is most spectacular place, probably on earth. This will bring even switzerland/scotland to shame. Mumbai is raining hard!!!!. It is almost 5years I have ever seen rain-as in Bangalore it hardly ever rains. Good old Mumbai. Mumbai-Pune express highway is the best one with extreme engineering.

Posted by SSET 
Showers forecast for Chennai, N. Tamilnadu and S. Andhra all thru this week till 21-Aug.. ..
A new low in the bay on the 17th ?? ....
WET - MJO phase for Indian sub continent till 9-Sep... so more monsoon showers expected till this date for India ...
Indian Ocean Dipole ....
South West Monsoon Rainfall Toppers 2010 till 15th August....
3pm, Heavy showers over Pakistan, Central Rajasthan, scattered Thunder cells all over Andhra and S-W Orissa...
Chennai - Now 3:37pm having a good Sea breeze from East... Satellite shows a Thunderstorm to the West of Chennai...
Chennai - Going to be another showery evening after 3:30pm.
Chennai - www.nuwe/in forecasts very less ahowers for Chennai till 20-Aug...
Chennai - Just touched a max of 34.8 C (12:05pm)..a gloomy and humid day so far, with wind from N-W
11:30am, West central and S-W Bay is active with heavy showers ...
11:30am, Showers along Gujarat coast, Maharastra and Karnataka coast ...
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia, Baroda,9.15am, wet weekend & rainy monday to start..a pic

South West Monsoon Rainfall Toppers 2010 till 15th August

All IndiaTop Rainfalls, over a limit of 2000mms, from 1st. June to 15th. August 2010.
  1. Cherrapunji: 5787 mm (-435)
  2. Agumbe: 4409 mm (-1075)
  3. Gaganbawada: 3840 mm
  4. Shirali: 3272 mm (+262)
  5. Mahableshwar: 3003 mm (-1234)
  6. Honavar: 2826 mm (+225)
  7. Ratnagiri: 2823 mm (+698)
  8. Buxa: 2808 mm
  9. Mangalore AP: 2644 mm(-25)
  10. Panambur: 2638 mm (+91)
  11. Bhagamandala: 2508 mm
  12. Karwar: 2499 mm (+185)
  13. Panjim: 2493 (+382)
  14. Harnai: 2456 mm (+502)
  15. Mumbai Colaba: 2312 mm (+778)
  16. Chinnakallar: 2276 mm
  17. Kottigehara: 2262 mm
  18. Mumbai Santa Cruz: 2219 mm (+512)
  19. Kannur: 2176 mm
  20. Matheran: 2160 mm
  21. Dahanu: 2011 mm (+513)
Rajesh, in continuation to ur is the complete combined list