October 22, 2015 at 11:40PM

5:10pm, Shahdol - T showers approaching. #weather

from Instagram

ITCZ and surges in easterly trade

 [1] The ITCZ has gone close to 5 Deg N. This is tropical easterly [NOT easterly wave] and surges in the EASTERLY move from East to west. Usually in the surge points there will be convection and rain

[2] NEM is different and Easterly wave is different.  In the absence of NEM perhaps the disturbance will be in the form of Easterly wave.
Easterly wave is a global wide phenomenon. Tropical easterly ranges from 2000-2500km and it is a WEST moving wavelet. 

[3] The SWM has completely withdrawn from the continent and NEM has not set in yet. Perhaps "KOPPU" may be the culprit which prevents NEM set in.

[4] Most of the blogger write about excess - copious NEM for 2015 and correlate EL NINO. But one has to wait for NEM progress.  

October 22, 2015 at 07:53PM

3:36pm, Dohnavur - T showers. #weather

from Instagram

October 22, 2015 at 12:10AM

5:55pm, Badlapur cloudy after 9 days. #weather

from Instagram

October 22, 2015 at 12:07AM

5:26pm, 21-Oct, rain seen over hills near Tirunelveli. #weather

from Instagram