Readings as on 16th. May:

Hottest in Asia: Larkana (Pakistan): 50c, Also,Nawabshah:49c, Jacobabad:48c (Pakistan).
Hottest in India: Ganganagar: 47.8c, Hissar 47c,
Hottest Nights (above 30c): Jodhpur 31.6c,Kota 32.3c, Raipur 32.0c,

Mahableshwar: 32.2c. Simla 29.2c.
Mumbai,Colaba:35.8c, Mumbai,S'Cruz:34.0c.Thane (AWS) 36.0c
Mumbai will have warm days with temperatures around 35c. Cloudiness will increase from Wednessday.

The Heat is ON ! The first 50c of the year was recorded in Larkana, Pakistan, today.
The entire stretch from Sindh (Pakistan) into India covering the states of Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, M.P, Vidharbh and Gujarat are under a severe heat wave. IMD map of today's high shows the deep red area covering the region.

This intense heat will give be a booster for the fast formation and deepening of the seasonal low over the Sindh/ Rajasthan region, and its spreading into the heart of India in the East, and Westwards into Pakistan and Iran.
Read full write up here.

RT @EcoSeed: Oil spill: 1st 36 hours in pictures http://bit.ly/dpF99I oilspill mexicangulf oildrill

Wettest places in India .. Part 2 ... http://ow.ly/1LI62

Rainfall on Meghalaya plateau... http://ow.ly/1LI4X

Rainfall on Meghalaya plateau

Rainfall on the Meghalaya plateau in Northeastern India
------------------------------------
The annual rainfall variation at Cherrapunji for 31 years from 1973 to 2003. The maximum rainfall was 24,555.3 mm in 1974 and the minimum was 6,950.3 mm in 1978.

http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.com/2010/05/rainfall-on-meghalaya-plateau-in.html

Posted by Pradeep

Wettest places in India .. Part 2

In addition to the 14 heavy rainfall stations listed 7 other locations were found to receive over 5000 mm of rain per year on an average.

I am not able to retrieve that information. I think ChinnaKallar will be part of that 7 locations.


Apart from this some areas which receive 350 cm

Passighat 433cm
Kutiyadi 416
Shirali 410
Mangalore 399
Vythiri 395
Devala 394
Ponmudi 391
Gangtok 380
Quilandi 379
Honavar 368
Panambur 361
Kasargod 354
Hosdurg 350
Karikode 349
CoochBehar 348
Munnar 346
Vellor 345

posted by Pradeep

Nagercoil - Reports from Kanyakumari district, that the district has started experiencing S-W monsoon like weather with mild drizzles.

Max. temp. map of 15-May... http://ow.ly/i/1AkK

On 15-May, Dhubri-7, Cherrapunji-6, Itanagar, N. Lakhimpur and Nancowry-5 each, Dibrugarh and Portblair-4 CM.. Rainmap.. http://ow.ly/i/1Ako

On 15-May, highest maximum Temperature of 46.2°C has been recorded at Churu (Rajasthan).

IMD :: Conditions are favourable for onset of South West Monsoon over south Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands and southeast Bay in next 48 hours

http://ow.ly/i/1AjW ... A fresh western Disturbance has started affecting Kashmir and more on its way.

4:30pm, Isolated thunder cells over S-E Karnataka, S Andhra, S-central Kerala and over S. Tamilnadu .. http://ow.ly/i/1AjW

4:30pm, "93A" organizing well as "92B" slowly developing.. http://ow.ly/i/1AjW

Here's the GFS model for 23-May.. which shows Heavy showers for Kerala and NO sign of Bay storm .. http://ow.ly/i/1AdY

Latest GFS model shows very Heavy showers for Kerala from 22-may, "Is the monsoon going to set in around that time again, like last year ??"

http://ow.ly/i/1Adc ... South-west Srilanka continues to get Heavy showers.. it's like monsoon there.

3pm, Isolated thunder cells over Orissa, central Andhra, S-W Karnataka ... http://ow.ly/i/1Adc

3pm, Very less thunder showers visible over South Peninsula... http://ow.ly/i/1Adc

3pm, we can see the latest sat. shot of "93A" and "92B"... http://ow.ly/i/1Adc

Monsoon watch - 8 .. check this out .. http://ow.ly/1LDuV

Pre monsoonal circulations .. http://ow.ly/1LDut

IMD press release regarding onset of South-west Monsoon .. http://ow.ly/1LDuf

Chennai - Till 11:30am, it has recorded a moderate 36.4 Deg C

Indian Ocean - Lower Level IR - Latest Available - Storm Zoom

Indian Ocean - Lower Level IR - Latest Available - Storm Zoom

Courtesy : CIMSS

The cloud organisation near Car Nicobar Islands. But the upper guiding winds are SWly. With this criteria the cloud mass may skip eastern coast.

Chennai - Still hovering around 36 and 37 deg C.

Two pre-monsoon circulations over Arabian and Bay of Bengal seas, "93A" and "92B".. http://ow.ly/1LDsK

Two pre-monsoon circulations "93A" and "92B" !!

Latest Satellite shot of the TWO
-------------------------------------

JTWC::
----------------
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 60.1E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 57.2E, APPROXIMATELY 390 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS ROTATING
CYCLONICALLY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES AND A 160146Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE SUGGEST A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. THIS
LOCATION IS CONSISTENT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES THAT ARE
PROVIDING FAVORABLE VENTING YET ELEVATED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.9N 90.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 750 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD REGION OF CONVERGENCE AND MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING. AN 1124Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A RELATIVELY
UNORGANIZED REGION OF CONVERGENCE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. AN
1132Z WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS RELATIVELY STRAIGHT LINE FLOW
WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

IMD PRESS RELEASE

PRESS RELEASE New Delhi, 14th May 2010
INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
Forecast for the 2010 Southwest Monsoon Onset over Kerala
1. Background
The onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala signals the arrival of monsoon over the Indian subcontinent and represents beginning of rainy season over the region. From 2005 onwards India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been issuing operational forecasts for the monsoon onset over Kerala using an indigenously developed statistical model with a model error of ± 4 days. The operational forecasts issued based on this model during all the five years (2005 to 2009) were correct as seen in the table given below.
Year Actual Onset Date Forecast Onset Date
2005 10th June 10th May
2006 26th May 30th May
2007 28th May 24th May
2008 31st May 29th May
2009 23rd May 26th May
IMD has now prepared the forecast for the 2010 monsoon onset over Kerala.
2. Advance of monsoon over Andaman Sea
The normal date of advance of monsoon over Andaman Sea is 20th May. It is expected that monsoon flow will start appearing over Andaman Sea by next week and is likely to cover the Andaman Sea close to its normal date. Past data suggest absence of any one to one association between the date of monsoon advance over Andaman Sea and the date of monsoon onset over Kerala.
3. Forecast for the 2010 Monsoon Onset over Kerala
For predicting the 2010 monsoon onset over Kerala, the model based on Principal Component Regression technique uses the following six predictors:
i) Minimum Temperature over North-west India, ii) Pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula, iii) Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) over south China Sea, (iv) Lower Tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian ocean, (v) upper Tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean, and (vi) Outgoing Long wave (OLR) over south-west Pacific region.
The model suggests that the date of onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala is likely to be on 30th May with a model error of ± 4 days.

Pre monsoonal circulations

Courtesy:www.nrlmry.navy.mil [US navy site]

This cloud is mass getting organised in Arabian Sea. This is 93A. This is perhaps wind shear in monsoonal winds in Arabian sea. This may draw more monsoonal winds towards its core

Courtesy: Thai Meteorological Department weather Chart.

This is another circulation in the monsoonal wind in Bay of Bengal. This is 92B. This may intensify further and move in a west-north westerly direction and may bring rainfall to Tamilnadu coast.

Monsoon Watch - 8
In the Bay sector, the cross-equatorial wind is building across the East Indian Ocean with clouds massing around the Bay Islands. Strong South-West winds have suddenly developed in the South Andaman Sea, and the clouds are seen building up in the South Seas. Gauging the the wind speed, we can expect the Monsoon to strike the South Andamans by 18th, and the Middle Andamans by the 20th.
Onward progress North,will have to be monitored.

In this sequence, we now have the second part. A weak low has formed in the South Central Bay on the 15th. viz.93B. According to weather forecasts, international and NCMRWF, it is likely to get stronger,and move West.-- An unusual direction for a depression to move in this initial Pre-Monsoon stage !-- By the 20th.it should strike the Chennai region as a depression, say of around 996 mb at the core.
Naturally, heavy rains are expected as a result along T.N. coast from the18th. evening. By 20th. Chennai and regions around the Northern T.N area could recieve upto 50-70 mms in 24hrs.The system is then expected to weaken,and cross into T.N. and onwards into Karnataka. On the 21st.and 22nd. May, Karnataka and Kerala can expect rain as the system weakens into a low.
Now, as the system crosses the T.N. coast around the 20th, winds from the Arabian Sea would be attracted towards the system. Hence, we can expect heavy rains on 20th, 21st in Sri Lanka and the advancement of the Monsoon into Sri Lanka.  

I visualise the Monsoon current to be pulled into Kerala, only if the system re-emerges into the Arabian Sea. Even as a weak low in the Arabian Sea, it can pull the Monsoon current into the Kerala coast, and this could be around the 24th, as per the schedule of the movement of the system crossing the East coast.
It is pertinent to mention here, that the European Model does not estimate for the low to cross the T.N.coast at alll.

 

 The result of strong winds blowing Northwards along the Somali coast, has resulted in the Sea temperatures dropping off the Somali Coast (Somali Current). As the current gets stronger, the Sea temperaature will drop to as low as 20c, and that is what creates the huge cloud mass forming over Central Arabian Sea. Today, we see some of this formation, and the appearance of 92A, west of the Maldives. I do not read much into this weak system today, and expect it to be stationary for a week or so.
But , international weather forecast a  tropical storm formation for the Arabian Sea after a week, say after 24th. But I would wait and watch, rather than risk a storm forecast today.

Today's Readings (15th. May):
Highest in Asia: Nawabshah (Pakistan): 48c. Highest in India: Nagpur: 45.9c, Khajuraho: 45.8c.
Hottest Nights: New Delhi (Palam):32.2c, Jaipur:31.8c,Jodhpur:31.7c, New Delhi (S'Jung):31.3c, Raipur:30.9c, Gondia:30.6c.

Mumbai (Colaba) 36.0c, Mumbai (S'Cruz):34.0c.