Wednesday, October 02, 2013

Heavy rain ahead for E.Madhyapradesh and S,S-E,E Uttarpradesh

Latest analysis show that the circulation has moved into S-E Madhyapradesh and N-E Maharastra ... 

There's another circulation seen over N-E corner Arabian sea near S Gujarat and Mumbai !
An offshore trough seen along S Maharastra coast and upto Goa... the N-E Arabian sea circulation is embedded in this.

This offshore trough is expected to last till Saturday evening ! Rain expected over S Maharastra coast, Goa and along Karnataka coast.
#Mumbai can expect moderate rain till Saturday.
#Goa can expect HEAVY rain till Sunday morning !

By Friday evening, the present S-E MP circulation is expected to drift into N-E Madhyapradesh, along S Uttarpradesh

Due to this circulation, HEAVY rain ahead for E,S-E Madhyapradesh, S,S-E Uttarpradesh (Including Kanpur and Lucknow) before 3-Oct,evening.
Before tomorrow evening, scattered Heavy rain also for E,N,central Maharastra, S,central Chatisgarh and some into N-E Karnataka, N Andhra
Tomorrow as well showers linger over E,S-E Gujarat.
On Friday, HEAVY rain to push into N-E,E Madhyapradesh, E Uttarpradesh, N Chatisgarh and into W,S-W Bihar.

Latest GFS model suggests that the low level circulation will drift E-N-E after reaching N-E Madhyapradesh on Friday.
But WRF model suggests that the upper level circulation will continue to drift W-N-W and reach S-E Gujarat on 4-Oct 

Till 6/7-Oct, "there is NO chance of monsoon withdrawal process"
#Chennai - 10pm, moderate showers seen over W-N-W from city at around 60km.. near Arakkonam town.

9:30pm, Due to circulation over S-E Madhyapradesh, E Maharastra, Chatisgarh ... HEAVY rain over E,central Maharastra 
9:30pm, Heavy rain also over central,S Chatisgarh, N Andhra, E Madhyapradesh, E Gujarat...

Latest upper troposphere humidity map shows LESS humidity over N,N-W India.. signalling the END of monsoon for these zones !
Present S-E Madhyapradesh circulation is expected to bring rain for S,E Uttarpradesh, E Madhyapradesh till Saturday and withdrawal expected.

RT @rajugana:  Bangalore on 1-Oct After a hot and humid day, Develop of T Clouds in the eve n drizzled in parts pic