Just received reports of drizzling in Mumbai from Parwez. Report of light rain sent by Shiraz from Mahableshwar at 9 p.m.
Wednesday, November 03, 2010
Bay Depression Update:
Core pressure yet the same as per last report , and constant at 1002 mb. But outward development is the circulation centre surrounded by convective cloud bands, organised in the last 6 hrs.
Winds at 30 knts, and location slightly north-westwards (from last report) at 8N and 92.7E.
Now about 1400 kms east south-east of Chennai.
Low in the Arabian Sea precipitated heavy rains in Goa today.Thundershowers lashed many regions of Goa today. Clouds spreading into the interiors.
Shrinking Aral Sea
2000
2008
2010
In the 1960s, the Soviet Union undertook a major water diversion project on the arid plains of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. The region’s two major rivers, fed from snowmelt and precipitation in faraway mountains, were used to transform the desert into fields for cotton and other crops. Before the project, the two rivers left the mountains, cut northwest through the Kyzylkum Desert—the Syr Darya to the north and the Amu Darya in parallel to the south—and finally pooled together in the lowest part of the desert basin. The lake they made, the Aral Sea, was once the fourth largest lake in the world.
Although irrigation made the desert bloom, it devastated the Aral Sea. This series of images from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite documents the changes in the Aral Sea throughout the past decade. At the start of the series in 2000, the lake was already a fraction of its 1960 extent (black line). The Northern Aral Sea (sometimes called the Small Aral Sea) had separated from the Southern (Large) Aral Sea. The Southern Aral Sea had split into an eastern and a western lobe that remained tenuously connected at both ends.
By 2001, the southern connection had been severed, and the shallower eastern part retreated rapidly over the next several years. Especially large retreats in the eastern lobe of the Southern Sea appear to have occurred between 2005 and 2009, when drought limited and then cut off the flow of the Amu Darya. The final image in the series is from the summer of 2010, when water levels increased slightly after the drought broke.
As the lake dried up, fisheries and the communities that depended on them collapsed. The increasingly salty water became polluted with fertilizer and pesticides. The blowing dust from the exposed lakebed, contaminated with agricultural chemicals, became a public health hazard. The salty dust blew off the lakebed and settled onto fields, degrading the soil. Croplands had to be flushed with larger and larger volumes of river water. The loss of the moderating influence of such a large body of water made winters colder and summers hotter and drier.
In a last-ditch effort to save some of the lake, Kazakhstan built a dam between the northern and southern parts of the Aral Sea. Completed in 2005, the dam was basically a death sentence for the southern Aral Sea, which was judged to be beyond saving. All of the water flowing into the desert basin from the Syr Darya now stays in the Northern Aral Sea. Between 2005 and 2006, the water levels in that part of the lake rebounded significantly and very small increases are visible throughout the rest of the time period. The differences in water color are due to changes in sediment
12pm, Showers along S. Andhra coast.. We can see the cloud mass associated with S-E Bay LOW ... http://ow.ly/i/59nI
Buzz in South Andaman Sea to intensify into depression
The depression over the Gulf of Thailand has moved west-northwestwards and emerged as a low-pressure area over South Andaman Sea on Tuesday, an India Meteorological Department (IMD0 update said.
This represents a weakening of the system while crossing the territorial waters and the land feature of Southern Thailand but will soon regain depression status – as early as on Wednesday, the IMD said.
INTENSIFICATION LIKELY
From here, it is a long way off to the projected landfall by the weekend along the Tamil Nadu coast, which gives the space and time to intensify further into a cyclonic storm.
According to the Indian Ocean Forecasting System (Indofos) of the India National Centre for Ocean Information Services (Incois) based in Hyderabad, the coastal waters along Tamil Nadu and adjoining Southwest Bay of Bengal are very warm. This will allow convection to build around the brewing storm, which would become well organised over Southwest Bay of Bengal just ahead of the landfall, a numerical weather prediction by the Thailand Meteorological Department said.
The Indofos has been suggesting the Puducherry-Chennai belt for a landfall on Sunday/early Monday than the Chennai-South Coastal Andhra Pradesh belt just to the north.
According to various forecast models, the storm could get declared as a tropical cyclone by Thursday with the moniker, ‘Jal', according to the naming protocol for the Bay of Bengal basin (and contributed by India).
The US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) has upgraded as ‘fair' the potential for development of a tropical storm in the region during the next 24 hours.
The JTWC traced the causative area of convection 435 km north-northwest of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on Tuesday morning.
The low vertical wind shear (sudden change in wind direction with height which kills storms), the window effect on the top, persisting convection and falling barometric pressure (lower the pressure, stronger the winds) aid intensification, the forecast said.
A weather warning issued by the IMD said that heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur at a few places over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next two days.
Strong winds with speeds reaching 35 to 45 km an hr are likely over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the Andaman Sea and adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal. Fishermen have been advised to exercise caution while venturing into the sea.
Meanwhile, an update on weather for the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning said that fairly widespread rainfall was received over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and North Tamil Nadu.
It was scattered over Assam, Jharkhand, South interior Karnataka, Kerala and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
The Insat cloud imagery showed the presence of convective clouds over parts of West-central and Southeast Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and Andhra Pradesh.
The upper air cyclonic circulation over Rayalaseema and adjoining areas of North Tamil Nadu persisted.
Two-day outlook from the Meteorological and Oceanographic Satellite Data Archival Centre (Mosdac) at the Space Applications Centre, Ahmedabad (under Indian Space Research Organisation), saw rains building up over Central Peninsula.
The Mosdac outlook said that scattered to widespread wet weather may establish over South Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka and Coastal Karnataka during this period.
WIDESPREAD RAIN
An IMD forecast until Friday said that widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Andaman and Nicobar Islands. It would be fairly widespread over Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep.
Scattered rain or thundershowers are likely over Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Orissa and Chhattisgarh on Wednesday. Scattered rain or thundershowers have been forecast over the Northeastern States.
Extended forecast valid until Sunday spoke about the possibility of fairly widespread rainfall activity over Andaman and Nicobar Islands. This is the time when meaningful rains would unfold over South Peninsular India as well.
Update on the S-E Bay low .. upcoming cyclone "JAL" ?? #2
JTWC
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.9N 100.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 95.8E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTHWEST OF KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION FLARING SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) JUST WEST OF THE MAYLAY PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS CURRENTLY INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. WHILE CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE, MODEL DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS AREA (GFS, NOGAPS, AND ECMWF) HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
IMD
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The low pressure area over south Andaman Sea persists as a well marked low pressure area. The system is
likely to concentrate into a depression over the same area within next 24 hours. It may intensify further into a
cyclonic storm and move west-northwestward towards north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts.
Yesterday's upper circulation over S. Karnataka is over S-W coastal Karnataka and Arabian sea .. http://ow.ly/i/59hh
5:30am, Well marked LOW and associated circulation can be seen over S-E Bay.. this is the seed for upcoming Cyclone.. http://ow.ly/i/59gZ
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