Wednesday, June 16, 2010
The pieces have fallen well in place,with the trough off the western coast of India, embedded with a vortex off North Maharashtra coast,producing the heavy rains predicted, and moving the monsoon northwards into south Gujarat and all of Maharashtra.The limit of the monsoon is seen in the 200 hpa map. Easterlies indicate the monsoon limit normally.
Some of the heavy rainfall figures of rain recorded on tuesday(day n night) are (in cms):Sangamneshwar-23,Khed-15,Dapoli-13,Chiplun-12,
Mahableshwar 14cms, Dahanu 11cms,Ratnagiri 10cms, Mumbai S'cruz 9cms and colaba 8cms
The lakes of Mumbai too recieved very good rainfall, a boon to the city:Vihar-16, Bhatsa-7, Upper Vaitarna-5, Tansa-4, Tulsi-3,Vaitarna-2.
For Mumbai,heavy rains were predicted,Monday thru Wednesday,At least a week in advance."Vagaries of the Weather" had estimated 23cms of rain Monday thru Wednesday for the city, and the actual rain recorded was20cms at colaba and 18cms at S'Cruz,till Wednesday evening.
And flooding and water logging and gusty winds was anticipated.The tall claims of the authorities have fallen like a pack of cards,in spite of the fact that flooding was expected.More than 20 low lying areas in the city were flooded knee deep, and Walls have collapsed.Landslides in Thane have led to much damage, and importantly,loss of lives.
Same old story!Forget the hoodwinking of the Shanghai story!Better would be a Venice promise,it will be easier !
The off shore trough will hang on, but the vortex off Mumbai, I expect, will cross inland. The result should be some torrential rains in North Madhya Maharashtra on Thursday.
Konkan rains will linger on till Saturday, though reduced.
Mumbai will see the rains gradually reducing from Thursdsay, and the weekend should be comparitively drier, with about 25-30mms of rain/day.
The rest of the west coast areas will continue to get moderate rains, around 35mms/day till Sunday.
All eyes on the Northern head of the Bay now. An unusual monsoon trough of low (for this time of the season) runs along the Northern plains of india, with the eastern end dipping in the Bay. Now this "dip", is the centre of all attention, and should form into a low.
With this formation, the monsoon's eastern branch should move along the axis of the trough, and bring the rains into Bihar and East U.P.on its way into Delhi.
Also,the south-west flow from the Arabian Sea onto the Karnataka and Konkan coasts will get a boost from this formation.
With the advancing monsoon spreading a cloud cover over the peninsula,and a W.D.covering the Nort/Northwest,the highest day temperatures have reduced to around the 40c levels.
Highest in Asia:Basrah(Iraq):50c
Highest in India:Patna:42c
Rain stopped now (1:44am). I think another12cms for pondy. This time it will not be on top of the table. power cut for 3.5hrs due to wind and lightning.
As reported by Dhinagar
The BMC has alerted a high tide of 4.70 metres at 1521 hours on Wednesday.“Any tide above 4.5 metres is coupled with heavy rains and is a matter of concern.
On July 26, 2005, Mumbai saw unprecedented floods as 944 mm of rainfall coincided with a 4.48 m tide.
The lull in the flows over the Arabian Sea would have repercussions for the Bay of Bengal as well, delaying the formation of a suitably endowed ‘low' to turn around things from that end.
The ‘twin-engine' scenario wherein the monsoon catapults itself into active status powered by ‘low's on either side of the peninsula, may not unfold until June 25, according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting.
A western disturbance system is tipped to cross into northwest India around that time. It would dig deep into the Arabian Sea and the Bay to activate the ‘low's. Ahead of this, the monsoon flows are shown to resume in full strength from June 22 and peak by June 25, setting the ground for system generation.
Source - Business Line - June 16