10:30am, Cyclone Ashobaa. Nearing to Oman coast. Intensified !! Pressure 969mb, Pos 21.013N, 61.27E, Max Wind 137kmph http://ow.ly/i/bemms
During past 12 hrs, Ashobaa has moved W-N-W towards Oman coast with intensification.
JTWC now expects a continued W-N-W movement and landfall along Oman coast S-E of Muscat on late-evening of 11-Jun.. http://ow.ly/i/bemsR
JTWC warning at 8:30am
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TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ASHOBAA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE, WHICH IS OBSCURING THE LLCC. A
092146Z GCOM-W1 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. BASED ON THE IMPROVED
STRUCTURE AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.5 (55 KNOTS)
FROM KNES, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE ASCAT 25-KM IMAGE SHOWS 50 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
PAKISTAN, WHICH IS OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED NEAR TAU 24 AS IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE WESTERN STEERING RIDGE. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS NOW
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TRACK SCENARIO, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 01A MAY
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65
KNOTS, HOWEVER, RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER 36 DUE TO
INCREASING INTERACTION WITH LAND AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INLAND AND DISSIPATE AFTER
TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 18 FEET.
GFS expects the Ashobaa to make landfall as a Tropical Cyclone along Oman coast on midnight, 11-Jun ... http://ow.ly/i/bemFb