Thursday, September 09, 2010

In a day of speedy movement, the hitherto sluggish low, has moved at super speed from M.P.yesterday thru North Mah. and Gujarat today, and now over Gujarat in the evening. The correspnding clouding and rain related to this system has moved thru N,Mah. and Gujarat, today, and shifted location to western Gujarat and adjoining Sindh coast. Today's rain (Thursday) is restricted only to this "catchment" region of the system.(NRL map).

That was fast. Even before I could pre-pone my forecast it has be-littled all estimates and moved away as if being chased out.

Expected to move away west into the sea by tomorrow, (making a bold attempt to forecast this low :), it should precipitate heavy showers along the Kutch and Sindh coast and Karachi.
In the rear of this system, it is expected that having sucked in much moisture, we may expect very little rain in the coming 3/4 day for the entire peninsula region and central regions of india.

The off shore trough along the west coast too is "tired" now, and not expected to be too active next 3/4 days. Albiet we can get just about 5-10 mms/day along
coastal cities.

However, the monsoon axis will be along the Rajasthan-Delhi-NorthM.P.-Jharkhand belt, and these regions would get some rain (not heavy).

"Widhrawal Symptoms":
In the next 2 days we see the monsoon anchor, the Sindh low, becoming 1000/1002 mb. This is normally at 994 mb in
full season, and has been at 998 mb since last week. IMD/GFS map.
We also see in some international models, the 200 hpa jet streams slipping a little below the 30N line, and becoming westerlies in Pakistan from the 11th./12th.
Initial signs of monsoon
moving out from the extreme west and Sindh region would be from early
next week. Say, after the current system,low, has finished its job in coastal Sindh.

All India Rainfall toppers from 1st January 2010 - 9th September 2010

  1. Cherrapunji (Meghalaya) - 1218 cm (Annual around 1100)
  2. Agumbe (Karnataka) - 598 cm (Annual over 750)
  3. Gaganbawada (Maharashtra) - 513 cm (Annual over 600)
  4. Mahabaleshwar (Maharashtra) - 419 cm (Annual over 600)
  5. Shirali (Karnataka) - 399 cm (Annual over 400)
  6. Buxa (West Bengal) - 376 cm (Annual around 550)
  7. Coochbehar (West Bengal) - 373 cm (Annual around 350)
  8. Passighat (Arunachal Pradesh) - 367 cm (Annual around 450)
  9. Silchar (Assam) - 367 cm (Annual around 350)
  10. Bhagamandala (Karnataka) - 362 cm (Annual over 600)
  11. Honavar (Karnataka) - 355 (Annual over 350)
  12. Ratnagiri (Maharashtra) - 350 cm (Annual around 300)
  13. Panambur (Karnataka) - 350 cm (Annual over 350)
  14. Mangalore AP (Karnataka) - 349 cm (Annual around 400)
  15. Kottigehara (Karnataka) - 342 cm (Annual around ??)
  16. North Lakhimpur (Assam) - 338 cm (Annual around 350)
  17. Karwar (Karnataka) - 328 cm (Annual around 400)
  18. Harnai (Maharashtra) - 323 cm (Annual around 250)
  19. Piravom (Kerala) - 320 cm (Annual around ??)
  20. Mumbai Santa Cruz (Maharashtra) - 320 cm (Annual around 250)
  21. Gangtok (Sikkim) - 317 cm (Annual over 350)
  22. Jalpaiguri (West Bengal) - 317 cm (Annual around 350)
  23. Matheran (Maharashtra) - 312 cm (Annual around 550)
  24. Panjim (Goa) - 312 cm (Annual around 300)
  25. Vadakara (Kerala) - 312 cm (Annual around ??)
  26. Mumbai Colaba (Maharashtra) - 312 cm (Annual around 200)
  27. Chinnakallar (Tamilnadu) - 291 cm (Annual around 500)
  28. Peermade (Kerala) - 282 cm (Annual around 500)
  29. Kannur (Kerala) - 273cm ( Annual around ??)
  30. Itanagar (Arunachal Pradesh) - 279 cm (Annual around 350)
  31. Dehradun (Uttranchal) - 268 cm (Annual around 200)
  32. Dibrugarh (Assam) - 266 cm (Annual around 300)
  33. Dahanu (Goa) - 259 cm (Annual around 250)
  34. Valparai (Tamilnadu) - 248 cm (Annual around 350)
  35. Devala (Tamilnadu) - 247 cm (Annual over 400)
Many stations in Kerala, Karnataka, Maharastra, and North East would have crossed 250 cm. Its very time consuming in calculating the rankings from the archived data.

Salute this man! Pachauri did what no climate sceptic is able to do. A Trojan Horse that destroyed the IPCC from the inside.

If Pachauri did not exist, we climate sceptics would have had to literally invent him. He is in fact every sceptic’s dream. How could we have asked for more when he embodies the UN Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in all completeness?

Next month 194 governments of the IPCC are scheduled to meet in Busan, South Korea. This is where a plot to ouster Pachuari could be unleashed. Pachuari remains defiant: “At the moment, my mandate is very clear. I have to complete the fifth assessment” The Indian Government who Pachuari is their candidate is equally defiant, backing him to the hilt. If Pachauri goes, we leave the IPCC! And if India leaves the IPCC, it can trigger an exodus.

We launch our “Save Pachauri Campaign”.  This is the least we can do for a Patriot of our country. He accomplished what climate sceptics were unable to do by functioning as our Trojan horse that effectively destroyed the IPCC from the inside. Write your support to Pachauri/TERI directly or pressurise WWF to executive an Adopt a Pachauri Programme as envisaged by sceptics.

Read More:
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RT @gujarattimes: Rains 26 pct above normal in past week - Met
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Chennai - Heavy thunder cells seen over S-S-W chennai suburbs.. now 4:30pm
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kerala coast will get isolated heavy showers from Today till 14-Sep... with widespread showers forecast on 11,12,13-Sep-2010
Central Bay will get very active from evening of 10-Sep and showers predicted again for N. Tamilnadu coast and S. Andhra coast till 14-Sep
RT @Nidhik20: Dengue wsn't enff, Cholera,swine flu and now delhi gets viral EYE FLu. This time monsoon hs come up wid a heavy package deal!
Gujarat will get heavy showers for another 24 hrs.
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11am, Massive showers over S. Gujarat & N-W corner of Maharastra ...
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia,Baroda 7.40am, Torrential rain since yesterday night.. rumbling sky with thunder, lightning and rain continues