Prevailing wind and TN rainfall

                                                                                                                

22.10.2014 /04LT

The series of LOW in Indian Ocean and adjoining Ocean is the result of weak westerly originating from

south Indian Ocean pressure system.

The TMD chart is showing that.  

It is further withdrawal of SWM from below 8 Degree North i.e further SOUTH below INDIAN  MAINLAND MASS.[KANYAKUMARI]

This make EAST-WEST trough (in weak westerlies)which is the origin of rainfall in TN

The usual strengthening of  HIGH PRESSURE system over Asia (Siberia & neighborhood and the Tibetan HIGH at 5000m high.) is to follow to enhance NEly in TN

Weather Instagram at October 23, 2014 at 07:12PM

This is Bangalore at 4:30pm, " Strong drizzle at brigade road in Bangalore." #weather

from Instagram

Weather Instagram at October 23, 2014 at 02:55PM

#chennai - 2:50pm, round 2 of heavy T showers now lashing chromepet zone. #weather

from Instagram

90A - S-central Arabian sea LOW

Analysis show a big low, mid-level circulation over S-central Arabian sea.
This is persisting there during past 2 days and now the pressure over the system is around 1007mb.

During next 3/4 days, GFS expects a N-N-W movement with instensification upto a Cyclone.
But ECMWF model predicts a Gujarat coast landfall round 29-Oct.

12:30pm, visible shows less organization and good convective activity around the system.

Meanwhile, N-E monsoon is expected to be active along Chennai, Tamilnadu coast and interior zones, S Andhra during next 2 days.

Weather Instagram at October 23, 2014 at 10:54AM

#chennai - 10:20am, heavy rain over poonamalle. Also over madipakkam, Polichalur, chromepet zones. #weather

from Instagram

Weather Instagram at October 23, 2014 at 09:20AM

Pudukottai, Tamilnadu - 9am, heavy rain. #weather

from Instagram

Chennai - 8:33am, warm and sunny, but rain expected around noon! Heavy rain seen along central coast Tamilnadu.. http://ow.ly/i/7jJwh