Thursday, November 05, 2015

Cyclone Megh is here !

Cyclone Megh is here over central Arabian sea ... and "again" eyeing Socotra Island and Yemen coast ...
Posted Thursday Night:
Rains expected to increase along TN coast (Chennai) from Sunday 8th onwards.

1. There is a East -West trough running roughly along the 10N line, eastwards from the East Coast of Sri Lanka. This will embed an UAC and subsequently by the 8th, a Low. .
The Low is expected to deepen and track NW towards the TN Coast. 
The system can cross the TN coast as a depression by Monday 9th.
There is a slight possibility of system re-emerging in the Arabian Sea off Kerala by mid next week. 

2. Western Disturbance N-3 is likely to bring rains in North Pakistan from Sunday 8th and North India from 9th .
Day and night temperatures are expected to fall in NW and North India next week.
 More on both these systems with weekend forecast on Friday....

November 05, 2015 at 05:53PM

Dohnavur - 4:14pm, raining. First photo taken around noon. #weather

from Instagram

A wet shopping weekend and Diwali eve ahead for Tamilnadu

SSE Bay is having a weak elongated circulation, this can develop into a strong circulation, LOW, move West in 48hrs ..
This SSE Bay circulation is expected to intensify and drift West as a WML on Sunday near to NE Srilanka coast..

During next 4/5 days, there's NO significant WD systems affecting north India, instead a low-level anti-cyclone expected over central India.
This central India Anti-cyclone can guide the upcoming S Bay system to keep tracking West and in some cases W-S-W as well !!

GFS expects the system to develop into Depression and reach NE Srilanka on 9-Nov...

ECMWF model suggests a landfall along central-coast Tamilnadu on 9-Nov as Deep Depression ...

More scattered T showers ahead for S,SE,NW,W, W-ghats Tamilnadu, W-ghats,S,SW Karnataka today before midnight..
Today and before morning of 6-Nov... HEAVY rainfall ALERT for Tirunelveli, Tuticorin and Kanyakumari district of Tamilnadu

Chennai - can get a scattered light / moderate shower from Sea after midnight and early morning of 6-Nov.

95A is now 05A, Depression over central Arabian sea

Yesterday's Arabian sea LOW "95A" is now "05A" a depression now.
Cyclone alert issued.
Pressure now is 1000mb..

Will 05A become a Cyclone like Chapala?
All depends on the dry air "already" trying to encircle the system...

In next 2 days.. GFS expects the Dry air to encircle the entire 05A and Will not allow to intensify..
Before starting to weaken after Saturday... this 05A may become a marginal Cyclone and may not get the name !!

November 05, 2015 at 12:24PM

Chennai - 10:30am, heavy rain over Polichalur, Anakaputhur, Pallavaram zone. Polichalur got 24.9mm. #weather

from Instagram