Sunday, November 20, 2011

chennai - All day it was partly cloudy with low cloud formations.. and now 10:28pm also having some low clouds.. Not cold now 26.9 C
Squally NE winds are expected along the T.N. coast and Chennai from 24-Nov... ... report..
Whatever the models predict about the LOW over Bay.. Heavy rains for Tamilnadu coast to start from 23/24-Nov... including chennai
But COLA model suggest the depression/ LOW to hit S. extreme Tamilnadu and S. Srilanka on 25/26-Nov..

Squally NE winds are expected along the T.N. coast and Chennai from Thursday

Publishing Next week's expected Developing situation and Weather forecast for the South. Its a 7 day estimate, and will be monitiored as it happens.
As mentioned yesterday, a UAC is likely to form off the South T.N. coast/Sri Lanka around Tuesday, 22nd November. This is likely to descend to form a sea level low in the same region within next 2 days, say around the 24th (Thursday). The said Low is expected to deepen (by then it would be numbered) and cross the Southern coast of T.N.
Squally NE winds are expected along the T.N. coast and Chennai from Thursday.
Hence, the coastal regions of T.N. and Chennai can expect increasing rainfall from Wednesday/Thursday, with heavy falls by Friday. Chennai can expect upto 7 cms on Friday, 25th. Interior T.N. can get meaningfull rains after Thursday thru Sunday.

As the system crosses the coast, the precipitation is expected to spread into North T.N. and S.interior Karnataka around Friday.

Vagaries shall keep track of this, as it is still 5/6 days away.

Vagaries expects this system to cross into the Arabian Sea in the subsequent week , and emerge as a low off the Kerala coast around Tuesday 29th.
Very difficult to foresee the movement and track at this stage (10 days in advance), but current conditonal observations and expected track study indicates a North movement, but a very slim survival chance of more than a couple of days for the system.

North India:
Due to the moving away of the W.D, ground fog occuredin the Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and West U.P. regions on Sunday morning. Visibility was low and up to 50 mtrs. Clear skies and enough moisture will create the perfect conditions for ground fog in the same areas on Sunday night/Monday morning.

Delhi's day temperatures will be around 27c on Monday, with fog reducing visibility to 0.2 kms in the morning hours, while the night is expected to drop to 12c.
Chandigarh will be in the 25c - 12c range.

With no W.D. approaching, Pakistan should be dry. A fall in the night temperatures could be expected in the Sindh regions from Monday night.
Karachi heated up to 35c on Monday, in line with the adjoining coastal regions of India. East dominating winds were prevailing for most of the day, preventing the SW sea breeze from setting in. With the current minimum at 18c, it is expected that a marginal cooling trend will be seen from Monday night. Should expect a low of 17/18c by Tuesday/Wednesday.

With the winds veering more to the East as expected on Sunday, Mumbai Colaba hit the predicted high of 36c, while S'Cruz was almost same at35.8c.
Mumbai retains the 2nd place in Asia on Sunday, while Laem Chabang (Thailand ) was highest at 37c.
Expecting the trend continuing on Monday, with the high at 35/36c. Nights will get cooler from Monday/Tuesday. Monday and Tuesday minimum will be about 18/19c at S'Cruz and 22/23c at Colaba.
Cloudy conditions possibly returning on Friday (due to situation explained above).
Pune will be warm in the day on Monday and Tuesday. Day's high will be 31c and low a comfortable 10/11c. Cloudy weather and rise in night temperatures from Friday.

IMD GFS still predicts a Depression to hit along N,central Tamilnadu coast on 26-Nov ..
S. Bay will pop a circulation above 5th parallel on 24-Nov ...
A strong easterlies will enter into S-E corner Bay from 21-Nov.. ... this easterlies will pop a LOW over S. Bay
Showers for S. Tamilnadu will start again from 22-Nov... and more to come till 29-Nov.
Vagaries sees another system for the AS off the west coast next week end....more in tonite's blog (by 10 pm IST)