222100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 50.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (BANDU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221631Z 91 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS SHEARED AWAY FROM A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 221433Z WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS AN UNORGANIZED LLCC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW/KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND A WINDSAT PASS, WHICH SHOWS A MAXIMUM OF 25 KNOTS AROUND THE LLCC. TC 02A IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE GULF OF ADEN. TC BANDU IS STEADILY WEAKENING DUE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY, AND LAND INTERACTION. TC 02A IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 12. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST TRACK, BUT DOES INDICATE FASTER TRACK SPEEDS, WHICH HAVE VERIFIED POORLY. THE REMNANTS SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD WHILE WEAKENING FURTHER. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 15 FEET
JTWC projected Path
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