Friday, October 24, 2014

Moderate rain expected to push into #Chennai, N-coast Tamilnadu and along S-coast Andhra in next 7/8 hrs.

90A - Slowly taking shape and intensifying !

Latest analysis show a intensification to "almost" a Depression now, but the present pressure is around 1003mb.
Presently located at 11.7 N , 60.9 E.

Most models predict a intensification to a Cyclone in next 48hrs and slowly drift W-N-W or N-W.
Either the COAMPS model or the HWRF model can become true !!
COAMPS suggests a Cyclone and track W-N-W towards Yemen coast during next 3/4 days !
HWRF predicts a N-W movement, intensify to Cyclone and reach up to S Oman coast around 29/30-Oct.

NEM is to set in  [What is gradient wind?]
 The Gradient wind analysis is the indicator of what is observed about the prevailing wind in the southern parts of India, especially in TN and Kerala

The WML in AS is expected to become depression and then to cyclone , because of the feeder from strong wind system. Still the influence of SWM over North Indian Ocean around India is valid.

NEM is still to put a foot in TN

5:30pm, Cloudy over most of Maharastra, S,central Gujarat, Madhyapradesh due to 90A in Arabian sea ... 
5:30pm, T showers along W-ghats Karnataka, W-ghats Kerala, Tamilnadu and S Tamilnadu ...
RT @rajesh26: Mumbai: Should get relief showers from Friday night thru Saturday. Cooler day with rain on Saturday. Saturday Max temp 25/26c. 
#Chennai - Rainfall till 8:30am...
Nungambakkam = 78.1mm
Airport = 85.8mm
IWM Polichalur = 66.9mm

Today, the low-level circulation is seen along S-E coast Tamilnadu and adjoining Gulf Mannar .. 
During next 2 days, the easterlies is expected to be concentrated along N,central Tamilnadu coast and S Andhra .

Before midnight...
HEAVY rain ahead for interior,S,w-ghats Tamilnadu, W-ghats Kerala and S,S-W,S-central Karnataka.. 
Midnight today, early morning of 25-Oct..
HEAVY rain for S Andhra coast, N,central-coast Tamilnadu and #Chennai .. 

S-E Bay is expected to pop a strong circulation on Sunday, 26-Oct ... and expected to drift West !! 

90A - still a LOW, disorganized and tracked W-N-W

Analysis suggest that S-W-central Arabian sea LOW is still persisting as a LOW and not organized.
GFS model continue to suggest a Cyclone strength in next 72 hrs over W-central or West Arabian sea.

This slow moving system "can" make a landfall as Cyclone along South Oman coast on 30-Oct 
Dissipate over N-W Arabian sea itself around that time.

9am, Good convective activity seen along the system, but not orgazined.

Chennai - 6:40am, more rain pushing in and expected to last till 9am.

RT @fabwrite: It rained through the night & it's still raining.. @chennaiweather is it a holiday for schools today? @weatherofindia 5:53am