Monday, July 16, 2012

kadapa 12 am

vast nimbo stratus clouds approaching, expecting long moderate rain as yesterday. yesterday it rained from 1 :30 am to 8 am.
#chennai - 7:45pm, Sea breeze is almost stopped now. Showers not expected to develop after this time, but have to wait till 12am !

@ambaarsaria > Amristar - light rain possible till 20-Jul... rains expected to pick up after 21-Jul.

6:30pm, Lots of T.showers from N to S of Tamilnadu, Rain also over N.Karnataka, N,N-E,central.Andhra & most of E.India. 
RT @aknarendranath: @weatherofindia  Drizzle in Delhi. (6:02pm)
#chennai - 4:57pm, Another T.shower has popped up over N-W of city at around 45km.
Today, a weak UAC can be seen over Bay East of #chennai and Another weak one over N-E Andhra..

A weak medium level circulation can be seen over Chatisgarh and this'll drift East and persist over Jharkand for another 24hrs.

Weak UAC over N-E Andhra will persist over N,N-E Andhra for another 48hrs ..

Heavy rains over Sikkim, N.Bengal and North N-E states will slowly go down from 19-Jul ..

Entire E.India showers will become more widespread & heavier after 18-Jul...

S-W coast, Major heavy rains expected over Maharastra coast, Goa & Karnataka coast. Less rain for Kerala till 20-Jul..

Heavy & Widespread rains for entire Maharastra coast from today evening till 22-Jul and beyond !!
#chennai - 4:32pm, showers seen over N-N-W of city is fizzling out there, before moving East and reaching Sea.
#chennai - 4:15pm, a Heavy T.shower is sweeping over 40km N-N-W of city... it may brush Ponneri as well.

@angryindiangirl >> Jaipur - 50% of getting light showers in next 24hrs and after that till 21-Jul ... NO rain forecast. 

Chennai - 2:48pm, good t.cell formation seen over w, s-w, n-w.. heavy t.showers possible soon.

In 24hrs, Heavy rains forecast for Sikkim, North N-E states, N.Bengal, Orissa ..

From today the monsoon rains along entire Maharastra coast ( #Mumbai included) will get strong & widespread ..

RT @joelbrags: CloudBurst #Rain #Goa #Monsoon #Weather (1:07pm)

RT @jyothykarat: Rain soaked in goa #monsoons  (12:53pm)

RT @deveshe: The Rain Gods finally woke up from that prolonged nap. #Goa (11:47am)

RT @umeshshet: It feels like evening here at 8 am in the morning...rain is pouring in Goa....Hope its raining where its needed (8:39am)
The offshore trough is expected to deepen from today till 19-Jul ...

Low level circulation persists over N-W Uttarpradesh ... expected to last another 12hrs..

Monsoon winds will pick up speed over N,N-Central Arabian sea and will reach Gujarat, Maharastra coast & Karnataka coast from 17/18-Jul

Presently the monsoon axis is more towards North .. it'll slowly drift South on 18,19-Jul.

The monsoon axis will drift south & pop a circulation over N.corner Bay along S.Bengal on 20-Jul.. >> and move W-N-W
From morning, showers has picked up along Central,S.Maharastra coast, Goa & Karnataka coast ...

#chennai - had clear skies till 1pm, records a Warm & Humid 33.0°C at 12:40pm.

From noon today, Vertical.V is going to be high over coastal,S,central.Karnataka ... T.showers possible again..

Towards midnight, Vertical.V will be high along Goa, Karnataka coast, S,S-central Andhra, N,N-E.Tamilnadu & #chennai ..

Today, T.showers forecast for N,N-E Tamilnadu, #chennai  and S.Andhra !

@shirtdabutton >> Rajasthan - Isolated rain expected for East in next 36hrs and after that almost NO rains possible till 21-Jul

@shanthikod > N.Kerala - very less rains forecast till 20-Jul... after that the Offshore trough gets strong & N.Bay will bring more rains.

kadapa 1 :30 am

Its raining since past 3 days during night hours. 

When we talk about weak monsoons, let us first compare this year's figures with some of the other weak monsoon deficit years.

2009 saw the lowest rainfall (all India) in several decades. End of July in 2009 was at an unbelievable deficit of -47 %. It ended up with an end of season deficit of -28%.
For an on date comparison of 2009, see Vagaries' Blog of this date here 
On this page, Please move on to 16th July (2009) write up.
Check the rainfall figures for Gujarat on this date...havn't seen such figures in years..

1972 was also a drought year with the season's deficit at -24%. End July was at -31% in 1972.
The worst ever for drought ever in India was in 1877 when the monsoon deficit was at an ashtonishing -29%.

Current Weather:
Last few days, TN, AP and parts of Interior Karnataka got the much needed precipitation. As Venkatesh points out, it has reduced the deficit in the region and provided the much needed moisture in the interiors.
In TN, heavy rainfall was recorded in Alangayam  (dist Vellore) 11, Paiyur AWS (dist Krishnagiri) 9 and Vaniaymbadi (dist Vellore) 9, besides many station between 3-9 cms. With some rains, Chennai AP has crossed the 100 mms mark and is at 109 mms.

In AP, Chittoor (dist Chittoor) 13, Rajahmundry (East Godavari dt) 11, Avanigadda (Krishna dt) 10, Palamner (dist Chittoor) 10, Shriramsag.pocha (dist Nizamabad) 7 and several other stations below 7 cms.

Though Karnataka interiors did not recieve such heavy rains, at Bangarpet (Kolar dt) 8, Karwar 7, Manki (Uttara Kannada dt) and Hoskote (Bangalore rural dt) 6 each. A begining has been made with rains between 1-3 cms. Bangalore city got some rains, managing 12 mms, pushing up the season's total to 27 mms.

An off shore trough extends along the Eastern Coast of india, from the "low" over the NE States (the East end of the Monsoon Axis)crossing the coast into Interior TN. The trough encouraged and aided the formation of Thunderclouds in the Interiors of the Southern States due to drop in pressures at various levels.

The susequent rainfall along the trough was not predicted by any model, and formed as a result of the Eastern end of the Monsoon axis getting strong.

For More on the Outlook and City forecast see Vagaries.