"bijli" now has got even more stronger after 4 PM India time. During Noon india time, the core does seem to disintegrate and then in evening it started to pickup again.
Here is the latest warning from JTWC. It has predicted that the Cyclone will intesify slightly and skim along the indian coast and make landfall near Myanmar and Bangladesh coast. But keep it crossed, this system might disintegrate near Orissa coast OR eventually make landfall into Orissa itself.
POSITION NEAR 18.7N 86.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (BIJLI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 16/0800Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS
WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45
KNOTS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MYANMAR. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH, ENHANCING A MORE NORTHEASTERLY PROGRESSION FOR
TC 01B. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY-THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL THEN DISSIPATE
NEAR THE BANGLADESH-MYANMAR BORDER. THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE NUMERIC
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 14 FEET
Analysis based on advisory number 6 for BIJLI-09, published on 4/16/2009 06:00 UTC
|Date and time |
(forecasted in italic, current between red lines)
|Population in cyclone Category I (thousand)|
|Population in tropical storm (million)||½|
|Population vulnerable to storm surge (thousand)|
|Risk of wind damage|
Taken from Jim's blog, www.accuweather.com
It is hot, with few exceptions, throughout the Subcontinent in South Asia. Witness three-straight days of 100 degrees F (38 degrees C) at Mumbai-Santa Cruz (ended Sunday). And today, Monday, Akola, eastern Maharashtra, reached 111 degrees F/43.8 degrees C.
Normal temperatures over the Subcontinent as a whole are very high and still climbing by the day. It will top out somewhere between late April and late June, depending upon location, with heat in the south topping out first. In this light, that it has become hot is no revelation. Yet, over a wide area, this heat has become strong sooner than usual.
--Looking forward, there is little reason for a big shift in overall heat over the Subcontinent through at least this week. The subtropical Westerlies have nearly left the area south of the Himalaya and Hindu Kush allowing subtropical high pressure aloft to dominate. True, there will ripple eastward over the Subcontinent during this week of a weak short-wave trough in the Westerlies ("Western Disturbance").
By their nature, such waves have relatively cool air in their core, so slight trimming and reshuffling of the heat will happen. Maybe, the west will "cool" (by a few degrees C) first as the core of the highest heat shifts to the east. This would be followed by a slight cooling in the east as a new hot core sets up over the west.
--I have been asked what the heat means with respect to SW Monsoon onset. Short answer: I do not know. I have not studied the mechanics of the SW Monsoon any more than in a superficial way. There is a school of thought that says that relatively strong heating ahead of the SW Monsoon may bring it on early. Maybe so.
Yesterday morning's cyclone "01B" has been named as Cyclone "Bijli".... nice name.
For the last 24 hrs it's moving rapidly in a North-west direction and now it's very close to Orissa.
Still JTWC and other GFS models suggest a "skimming of the coast"... and might get inland over Bangladesh.
Latest satellite pic shows that it's almost touching southern Orissa & northern Andhra coast and still the head is big....and there's lot of signs over northern Bay suggesting that "Bijli" will trace the JTWC path prediction.
Here is the JTWC path prediction and warning text.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON A 0046Z SSMI IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW. THE TC IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN
BETWEEN A PAIR OF ANTICYCLONES OVER MYANMAR AND INDIA. THE NOGAPS
MODEL FIELDS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTH OF THE TC
HELPING INDUCE A TURN BACK TO THE EAST BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24.
ADDITIONALLY, THE ANTICYCLONE OVER MYANMAR WILL BUILD IN SOUTH OF
THE TC, FURTHER STEERING THE TC TO THE EAST. THE TC IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE BANGLADESH/MYANMAR BORDER PRIOR TO TAU 72.
THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO PREDICTING SIMILAR TRACKS. GFS AND
EGRR CONTINUE TO HAVE A MUCH WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE STORM AND DO
NOT FORECAST THE TURN TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, FAVORING NOGAPS AND ECMWF DUE TO
THEIR DEPICTION OF A STRONGER TC. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
THE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE ALOFT FAVOR MODERATE INTENSIFICATION TO 60
KTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS