Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Strong easterlies of this N-E Monsoon season coming up !

A strong easterlies is slowly pushing into S-E corner Bay... expected to reach Tamilnadu coast on Saturday night.
Scattered rain expected for Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai from Saturday night thru Sunday.
A LOW is expected to get embedded in Easterlies over S Bay on Saturday !

... more on this easterlies and upcoming S Bay LOW on tomorrow evening report.

Cyclone LEHAR - 10:30pm, Where is it ?

Where is Cyclone LEHAR ? ... It has undergone rapid weakening during past 6hrs after 5pm ... 

At present, it's a cyclone with winds reaching to 60 to 80 kmph.
Going by the present weakening trend, it may be "shot down over sea itself".
The system will downgrade to Deep depression during next 6hrs and reach Machilipatnam and Ongole coast around morning.
Heavy rain is still expected along central,S-central,N Andhra coast during next 24hrs.
Showers may even reach upto Odisha coast tomorrow.
By evening of 28-Nov-2013, the entire system may fizzle out along Machilipatnam coast itself, similar to Cyclone Helen.

This rapid weakening is caused by DRY winds from N,N-W India, latest analysis show that the Cyclone is encircled by these dry winds. This parameter is coupled with "Not so favorable Sea surface temperature along coast" as well.

LEHAR - drifting into Machilipatnam's RADAR range

LEHAR now pushing into RADAR range of Machilipatnam... here's the RADAR image as of 6:30pm.
Showers nearing central, N Andhra coast.
The system continues to drift W-N-W, as of 5:30pm it is positioned here 14.30 N , 84.55 E.

Here's the satellite visible shot at 4:30pm shows Heavy convective activity seen over W,N-W quadrants and recent (6pm) cloud top temperatures reveal -42.6 C, this is sign of less convective activity, weakening.

Andhra Pradesh braces for Cyclone Lehar, landfall tomorrow ... 

LEHAR - Tracking W-N-W and winds nearing 145 kmph

LEHAR, has pushed W-N-W again during past 6hrs and intensity has slightly increased... Winds now reaching 145 kmph, pressure dropped 976 mb
Here's the latest position of Cyclone LEHAR plotted on Map ...
Now, LEHAR is aiming at Machilipatnam ... coast plotted here is expected to get almost 90% hit within next 24hrs..

As Cyclone LEHAR is moving W-N-W, threat to #Chennai is now 90% out of Question.
For #Chennai - Due to LEHAR, moderate or light rain possible after midnight and before tomorrow evening.

#Chennai - 11am, DRY so far. NO low cloud formations. Patches of high clouds observed. (outer bands of Cyclone Lehar)

LEHAR - S,central Andhra get ready, landfall expected near Ongole in next 24hrs.

Cyclone Lehar has drifted W-N-W again during past 12hrs.
It has intensified now with pressure around 980 mb and Winds reaching to 135 kmph.
Present convective activity is very good, recent cloud top temperature reached to -81.1 C
The core of the cyclone is now estimated around 101 km radius. (CORE = which has constant winds of above 60 kmph), the core size is almost double that of Cyclone HELEN.
Satellite visible at 9:30am shows the BIG cloud mass of LEHAR.

Position is plotted here... 13.43N,86.37E (9 am)

Now almost ALL weather models agree to a central, S-central Andhra coast... very near to Ongole with present intensity or as slightly weakened Cyclone on mid-morning of 28-Nov-2013.
Now, the outer bands are reaching S,central Andhra coast, #Chennai and N Tamilnadu coast.
Rain expected to start along S,central Andhra coast from late evening today.
Some showers also expected to push into #Chennai and N.Tamilnadu coast from midnight.