Friday, June 13, 2014

Some showers in Mumbai, 4:45pm - #instagrams

Cyclone Nanauk - weakening now !

ADT - Analysis at 2pm suggests that Cyclone Nanauk has almost lost all its energy.
"rapidly it has lost its fizz".
"Convective activity is very weak, center temperature around +9.1 C"

Pressure is still around 974 mb
Wind gusts upto 115 kmph
Now its over North Arabian sea, center located at 21.22N , 64.17E

2:30pm, visible photo shows the weakening Nanauk.
Heavy and widespread monsoon rain seen from N Karnataka coast to S-central Kerala.

Forecast and Monsoon
GFS predicts that Cyclone will disintegrate in another 36hrs and then drift E-N-E towards S Gujarat coast on 15-Jun.
The remnant circulation is expected to get merged with the N-S offshore trough along W,S-W coast of India.
This will launch monsoon into entire coast of Maharastra and #Mumbai on 15-Jun, Sunday.
The circulation is then expected to travel N-N-E into Gujarat.
WRF model suggests that Nanauk will weaken to a Depression and then drift into Offshore trough and intensify again into deep depression along South Gujarat coast on 15-Jun.
This model also suggests Monsoon into coastal Maharastra on 15-Jun.

Weather Instagram at June 13, 2014 at 11:48AM

#chennai - 11:30am, a mild, windy and fully covered day. #weather

from Instagram