@nravs >> chennai - showers to start from Tuesday evening.. if the LOW "92B" moves and intensifies as predicted !!

On 24-Dec, Localized Rain burst over Thiruvananthapuram, records a heavy rainfall of 8cm.. !!

1-Jan-2012, may witness another strong easterlies and a Depression/Cyclone over S-E Bay .. http://ow.ly/i/ombY

Due to upcoming W.D, NO dense fog and cold day conditions  would  occur  over plains of north India during next 2­ to 3 days

On 24-Dec, Lowest minimum  temperature of ­1.4 C has  been recorded at Churu (Rajasthan) 

Cold wave conditions continue over many parts of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and N. Rajasthan and some parts of Bihar, Jharkhand

BB-12 moves a bit North 9from previous report) and is positioned 7.9N and 86E . Winds at 20-25 knts and pressure at 1004 mb. Track and strength will get organised from tonite as the system changes its direction and intensity. SST at 26/27c is just about favourable.

Lowest in the plains on Christmas morning (as reported) was -1.4c at Churu (Rajasthan). Across the border, Islamabad and Sibbi plummet to -2c and Karachi is steady at 8c.

Moisture content and LOW temp. to increase along chennai , N,Central Tamilnadu coast from 26-Dec.. http://ow.ly/i/om9X

A moderate W.D to start over N,N-W Kashmir from evening of 26-Dec... will affect that zone till 31-Dec

COLA suggests that "92B" will cross C. Tamilnadu coast on 28-Dec, showers begin along coast from mid-night of 27-Dec.. http://ow.ly/i/om89

Wet spell forecast for South on New Year eve .. http://ow.ly/89OaR (From The Hindu Business Line)

"92B" - Will it intensify to Depression and approach Tamilnadu coast ?? ... http://ow.ly/89O9O

chennai - is having COLD breezy Christmas evening .. Morning low temp. was 19.7 C (6:13am)

chennai - Strong cold winds from N-N-E now 3:59pm with Cloudy with LOW cloud cover and temp. is at 26.6 deg C

Wet spell forecast for South on New Year eve

Organised rains, long overdue over extreme south peninsula, may be on the way during the week ending Friday next (December 30).

This would happen as a fresh easterly wave drifts in across the Bay of Bengal and starts affecting the region from Saturday, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) outlook said.

It is likely that the rains may spill into the New Year as well, according to an extended outlook of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction.

An IMD outlook for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers would break out at a few places over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and south Tamil Nadu and at one or two places over the rest of extreme south peninsular India.

An Insat imagery on Friday afternoon located convective clouds rising over parts of south Tamil Nadu, south and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal, south Andaman Sea and the Comorin area.

An existing trough in the easterlies had shifted bearing west to over the Comorin area and Lakshadweep.

ISOLATED RAINS

Thundershowers have been reported at a few places over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and at one or two places over Lakshadweep during the 24 hours ending Friday morning. Meanwhile, dense fog to cold wave conditions persisted over respectively over east and north-west India during this period.

Fog to dense fog hung heavy over many parts of east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and sub-Himalayan West Bengal while it was ‘shallow' over Haryana, Delhi and west Uttar Pradesh. Cold wave conditions prevailed over parts of Punjab, Haryana, east Uttar Pradesh and sub-Himalayan West Bengal and isolated pockets of north Rajasthan.

COLD WAVE

Minimum temperatures fell by 2 to 3 deg Celsius over some parts of north Rajasthan and Haryana.

Dense to very dense fog would continue to prevail over parts of east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and sub-Himalayan West Bengal for two more days. Shallow fog has been forecast for pockets of Haryana, Delhi and west Uttar Pradesh during the morning hours during next 24 hours and no fog later. Cold day conditions would continue to prevail over some parts of Bihar and isolated pockets of east Uttar Pradesh during next 24 hours and abate thereafter.

"92B" - Will it intensify to Depression and approach Tamilnadu coast ??

Position :: 8.9 N and 86.2 E
Wind :: 45 km/Hr
Pressure :: 1003 mb


JTWC warning
-------------------------------------------------------------

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 87.5E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 86.0E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST OF 
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
LARGE FORMATIVE BANDING MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF AN ILL-DEFINED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE MAIN CONVECTION IS BEING DISPLACED TO 
THE NORTH DUE TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

Latest satellite IR shot, 2:30pm
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Rainrate
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COLA Model
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COLA maintains a landfall over Central Tamilnadu coast on 28-Dec as a Depression.

IMD GFS
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Still predicts a S. Tamilnadu landfall as a weak LOW pressure system on 29-Dec.

 A Merry Christmas and Season's Greetings to all the Vagaries' Readers and Followers ! 

Cold Christmas Morning in NW India !

Leh at -16c, Srinagar at -5c, Churu repeats at -1c on Sunday morning, whilst Delhi dips to a low of 2.9c on Christmas morning ! More later as details pour in .

BB-12 moved ENE, and was stationed at 7.3N and 87E this morning. NE movement may be temporary, and could be due to the unexpected arriaval of a W.D. in the Northern regions. Strength almost constant at 1002 mb and winds at 25 knts. Track could possibly turn to our predicted course, only the W.D. has caused a delay of 24 hrs in the time schedule framed earlier.

Next update at 3 pm IST.