Friday, October 10, 2014

HudHud - maintains intensity and drifted N-W. 48hrs to landfall !!


During past 12hr, the system showed some sign of weakening and during last 6hrs it has regained its intensity.
Pressure around 973 mb.
Present position 14.49 N , 87.02 E

Winds gusting to 150 kmph.
Wind analysis show a high wind big centre of 75km radii.

12:30pm, Visible shot shows deep convective activity over its centre, E, N-E quadrant and outer bands over W,N-W.

Models continue to suggest a N-E Andhra coast and S Odisha coast landfall on noon, evening of 12-Oct.

Status Report as on Friday Noon:

Cyclone Hudhud, having moved NW, is positioned at 14.7N and  87.6E, 494 nm south of Kolkata.Estimated core pressure 985 mb and estimated winds at 65  knts on 1 minute average and DVORK Estimates.  Observed 25 knts vertical wind shear...may not be favourable for rapid intensification, but other factors like height favour it.
As cyclone has reached upper level to almost 300 hp, conditions are favourable for initial strengthening and NW tracking as it is South of Sub Tropical Ridge (STR). STR may shift to East...,  which may shift the track N/NW.
Ensuing dry air appears to be diminishing, to a small region seen in the SE of the centre.
Very rough seas at present in the core region with 16 feet waves above astronomical tide levels.
From Vagaries

Hudhud - 5am, a slight weakening observed.
Pressure now around 978 mb.
But continues to move WNW.. 14.31 N, 87.24 E

Cyclone "HudHud" now a "Severe Cyclonic Storm




as per JTWC latest warning no.8 

TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (HUDHUD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 516 NM SOUTH
OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A DEEP CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ON A
091005Z SSMIS PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE (20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDING GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03B IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTH. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE, ALLOWING THE
CYCLONE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY PRIOR TO LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF
VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, PRIOR TO TAU 72. IT WILL THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS
IT TRACKS INLAND AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
OVERALL IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 18 FEET.