A low pressure, BB-1,  develops in the Southern Bay, SE off Sri Lanka around the 6th of May. Strengthened by various factors, the system will deepen into a depression by the 8th and a deep depression by the 9th/10th.
Due to "high" resistance initially,BB-1 will not move beyond the 10N line till the 10th, and may just come upto East off Sri Lanka.  
Sri Lanka, east coast in particular, gets very heavy rains from the 7th of May...
 
Very soon, thereafter, indications are there of a rapid North wards movement due to favourable conditions, and possibly deepen more on its track.
 
Vagaries will monitor the strength of BB-1, now a Deep Depression and its track, as it moves past Chennai after the 11th of May.

Vagaries will announce if necessary the "Cyclone alert" once the strength and track of BB-1 is defined.
At the same date, another strong system would have formed S/SW off BB-1, but below the Equator at 8S. Its going to complicate matters for the SWM...there will be hardly any clouding for the Andaman Seas..?? But our Andaman date could remain intact..??

See more on vagaries.

Today as well, the trough from S.Bihar is seen upto S.Tamilnadu, passing thru Chatisgarh, N.Andhra and S.Karnataka... http://ow.ly/i/21US8 

And this trough from S.Bihar to S.Tamilnadu is expected to persist for another 2 days ... http://ow.ly/i/21V41 

S,S-W Bay is expected to pop a circulation on 4/5-May ... http://ow.ly/i/21V87 

Weak circulation over North N-E states persists ... http://ow.ly/i/21VHr 

6pm, T.showers seen over N-W,S Tamilnadu, S,S-central Karnataka, central Andhra, Coastal,N-E Odisha, North N-E states http://ow.ly/i/21SLd 

#HOT at 1:40pm, Nagpur airport is reporting 46 C, Ahmedabad, Hyderabad, Varanasi = 41 C, Patna = 40 C, Jaipur = 38 C, Amristar, Delhi = 37 C

At 1:10pm, Trivandrum airport has reported some Rain ... with temperature around 31 C.

#Chennai - 1:40pm, temperature = 36 C and feels like 44.7 C. Humidity around 53 % and a mild Sea breeze has set in from S-E.

Yesterday, highest maximum  temperature of   45.6°C  has been recorded at  Nagpur (Maharashtra)

1:30pm, Heavy rain seen over Southern N-E states and mild rain seen over S.Tamilnadu and S. Kerala ... http://ow.ly/i/21NrE