The feared "El Nino" - South West Monsoon killer !!
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As compared to previous El Nino alerts this latest report / alert suggests that this year's El Nino is expected to be a weak one.
Here's the report published by BOM-Australia...
The tropical Pacific Ocean has warmed steadily in recent months, with large warm anomalies in the ocean sub-surface (5-day values up to +6 °C) and increasingly warm sea surface temperatures. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest El Niño development is possible as early as July. These factors indicate that while El Niño in 2014 cannot be guaranteed, the likelihood of an event developing remains at least 70% and we are at El Niño ALERT level.
As far as latest analysis, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is presently in Neutral state and expects it to be Neutral till Dec-2014.
As per the above report, the El Nino may not haunt this year's Monsoon !
Central, N-E India Heat LOW
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As of today, the LOW pressure generated by HEAT over N-W, Central, East India is around 1002mb and this is slightly high at this time of year. It should be around 1000mb.
Even though the W.D systems traversing N,N-W India has reduced, the consistent heating has not picked up.
North-South inland low-level trough (or) Line of Wind Discontinuity
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After the LOW pressure crossing the S-central Peninsula, the N-S low-level trough from N Bengal to S Tamilnadu is expected to be back in position on 13-May.
Sea Surface Temperature(SST) over Bay and Arabian sea
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SST over most of Bay is around 30 C, meanwhile there's almost reduction in SST seen along Somali seas, this is sign that less cross equatorial winds are reaching Somali coast. Please note, that around 25-May, the SST along Somali coast should be around 20 C.
Bay LOW
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From 5-May to 10-May, the Bay LOW materialized somewhat in the form 91B, which formed along Gulf Mannar and then moved to S-E Arabian sea and pushed inland thru Coastal Karnataka and then died along S,central Chatisgarh.
Now, GFS predicts a weak low-level circulation on 15 / 16-May over S-central Bay, Which will act as a driving engine for the entry of S-W Monsoon winds into S,S-E Bay into S,central Andaman Islands. On 18/19-May, the circulation may strengthen and slowly drift N-N-E into Bay.
Monsoon is expected to break into S,central Andamans on 17-May-2014.
Mascarene HIGH pressure system and Cross Equatorial Winds
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At present the pressure over the Mascarene high pressure system over South Indian Ocean is around 1020mb, and in fact the system is pushed slightly to East by a LOW (which is located S-W to the High). In coming days, this high pressure system should come near to Madagascar Islands and pressure should be around 1030mb before 20-May. This will help the speedy push of winds towards Somali coast and start to cross into S-W Arabian sea.
Not a good sign at this time ! Arabian sea wing of Monsoon may get delayed !
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As compared to previous El Nino alerts this latest report / alert suggests that this year's El Nino is expected to be a weak one.
Here's the report published by BOM-Australia...
The tropical Pacific Ocean has warmed steadily in recent months, with large warm anomalies in the ocean sub-surface (5-day values up to +6 °C) and increasingly warm sea surface temperatures. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest El Niño development is possible as early as July. These factors indicate that while El Niño in 2014 cannot be guaranteed, the likelihood of an event developing remains at least 70% and we are at El Niño ALERT level.
As per the above report, the El Nino may not haunt this year's Monsoon !
Central, N-E India Heat LOW
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As of today, the LOW pressure generated by HEAT over N-W, Central, East India is around 1002mb and this is slightly high at this time of year. It should be around 1000mb.
Even though the W.D systems traversing N,N-W India has reduced, the consistent heating has not picked up.
North-South inland low-level trough (or) Line of Wind Discontinuity
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
After the LOW pressure crossing the S-central Peninsula, the N-S low-level trough from N Bengal to S Tamilnadu is expected to be back in position on 13-May.
Sea Surface Temperature(SST) over Bay and Arabian sea
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SST over most of Bay is around 30 C, meanwhile there's almost reduction in SST seen along Somali seas, this is sign that less cross equatorial winds are reaching Somali coast. Please note, that around 25-May, the SST along Somali coast should be around 20 C.
Bay LOW
----------------------------------------
From 5-May to 10-May, the Bay LOW materialized somewhat in the form 91B, which formed along Gulf Mannar and then moved to S-E Arabian sea and pushed inland thru Coastal Karnataka and then died along S,central Chatisgarh.
Now, GFS predicts a weak low-level circulation on 15 / 16-May over S-central Bay, Which will act as a driving engine for the entry of S-W Monsoon winds into S,S-E Bay into S,central Andaman Islands. On 18/19-May, the circulation may strengthen and slowly drift N-N-E into Bay.
Monsoon is expected to break into S,central Andamans on 17-May-2014.
Mascarene HIGH pressure system and Cross Equatorial Winds
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
At present the pressure over the Mascarene high pressure system over South Indian Ocean is around 1020mb, and in fact the system is pushed slightly to East by a LOW (which is located S-W to the High). In coming days, this high pressure system should come near to Madagascar Islands and pressure should be around 1030mb before 20-May. This will help the speedy push of winds towards Somali coast and start to cross into S-W Arabian sea.
Not a good sign at this time ! Arabian sea wing of Monsoon may get delayed !
