Friday, October 15, 2010

6pm, Heavy showers over Bihar.
Chennai - Again touched a max of 35.3 C (2:45pm)... even now 5:54pm its warm.. at 32.8 deg C.
Orissa :: "97B" .. Heavy rains due to depression ..
5pm, 99% of the system "97B" is inland over S.Orissa and N-E Andhra.. ... showers continue along Kerala coast
Bad News :: NO chance of North East monsoon for Tamilnadu till 24-Oct... Last year the Onset date was around 27-Oct-2010.
Due to the expected westward tracking of "97B" & crossing into Arabian sea, Heavy showers expected along Maharastra coast from 18 to 22-Oct
Present "97B" will become weak over S. Orissa in 24hrs and expected to track West and cross into Arabian sea thru Maharastra coast on 20-Oct
11:30am, Due to "97B", S-W monsoon showers are active along Central Kerala coast ..
11:30am, "97 B" making landfall along S. Orissa coast.. heavy showers for ALL Orissa, N-E Andhra and S. Bengal..

Bay storm may deepen, aim for Orissa coast (posted on 14-Oct-2010)

The depression over East-central and adjoining Northwest and West-central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary from overnight on Thursday. The system lay anchored about 550 km east of Visakhapatnam, 430 km southeast of Gopalpur and 400 km south-southeast of Digha. But India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its evening bulletin that the system is likely to intensify into a deep depression, a spin away from being classified as a tropical cyclone.

The storm is expected to stick to a west-northwest track and aim the Orissa coast between Gopalpur and Paradip for a landfall by Friday evening, the IMD outlook said.
Satellite cloud imagery revealed the presence of intense convective clouds over Northwest and adjoining Central Bay of Bengal and parts of East-central and Southeast Bay, the Andaman Sea, Orissa, Coastal Gangetic West Bengal and Southeast Arabian Sea.
A weather warning valid for the next two days said scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Coastal Orissa. It would be isolated heavy over interior Orissa and coastal areas of West Bengal and North Coastal Andhra Pradesh.

Squally winds with speed reaching 45 to 55 km/hr would prevail along and off the North Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and West Bengal coasts.
The sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts during this period. Fishermen have been advised not to venture into the sea.
While maintaining the watch for development of a ‘significant weather system' in the Bay, the US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) said that a powerful band of northeasterly winds emerging from China could start ‘shearing away' the storm head on the home stretch.
The prevailing sea-surface temperature regime of 28 to 30 deg Celsius, however, continued to support storm development in the basin.

Meanwhile, upstream to the east, things were busying up fast and furious over South China Sea and the West Pacific basins.
A tropical storm, Megi, has spun up over the West Pacific and was on Thursday heading further west and poised to enter the ‘boiling hot' waters off the Philippines.
Both the JTWC and the Tropical Storm Risk Group of London are of the view that ‘Megi' would ramp up to a Category-4 typhoon by the time it barrels into North Philippines over the next four days.
The powerful storm might wind down to Category-2 strength after encountering the land features of the Philippines but could start strengthening once again on entering adjoining South China Sea.
‘Megi' is expected to ram Southwest China and adjoining Indo-China with all its fury, and could likely send in a remnant circulation into the Bay of Bengal as well.
An IMD outlook for weather valid until Sunday said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, West Bengal, Sikkim and the Northeastern States.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers have been forecast over Kerala and Lakshadweep on Thursday.
Scattered rain or thundershowers are likely over Bihar, Jharkhand, East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Coastal Karnataka and Andaman & Nicobar Islands. It will be isolated over Konkan, Goa and Tamil Nadu.
Forecast valid until Tuesday next said that fairly widespread rainfall would occur over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Vidarbha, Madhya Pradesh and Northeast India.
The deep depression, BoB3,  in place over Bay of Bengal as of now on its way towards a landfall on the Orissa coast. Latest position shows the centre at lat 19.0N and long 87.0E, about 220 km east-southeast of Gopalpur, and the core pressure at 998 mb with quadrant winds at 55-60 kmph.
Constantly, this system  is being sheared by easterly winds aloft, so most of its deep convective clouds and rains lie western quadrant.

Most  forecast models show the system tracking westward, and should make a landfall between near Gopalpur within a few hours of 1200 UTC, Friday. The question is, whether this will be a tropical cyclone at landfall, as easterlies persisting aloft through the time of landfall favors a cap on intensity.
Surface wind suggest the potential for gales--before landfall.

Inland, the system whirl will move west/northwest, reaching M.P. and crossing thru Vidharbha, before tracking on again, and weakening rapidly.
That means, this system  will precipitate unusual heavy rain in regions where SWM has retreated or should have retreated by now.

The coming of a depression now at this stage has completely pushed aside the "anti cyclone" and is now "sneaking in" in a monsoon depression after the "scales had turned unfavourably" for the SWM. And, I think it is the first deep depression to come from the bay since June !!
Long Live the SWM !!