Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Normal Monsoon Forecast: Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Wild Card

As India waits with bated breath to find out how the monsoon will pan out, India Meteorological Department (IMD) disappoints. It is too early now to give a forecast. We are right now studying all parameters and models for a comprehensive forecast for the entire season," announced L.S. Rathore, Director-General of the IMD. The IMD will issue its first forecast for the crucial rains only in the last week of April.

Meanwhile the Indian Institute for Tropical Meteorology (IITM) and many international climate agencies have already published their early predictions. Joining this band is a couple of early forecasts by members of the community of independent weather bloggers. 

The predominant opinion is this season's monsoon would be below average. The IITM models NCEP-CFC disagrees by forecasting an above normal monsoon. The two forecasts of the community of independent weather bloggers suggest a middle of the road outlook - a normal-normal monsoon. We examine why.

Duststorm in Delhi at 5 pm http://t.co/FCUkoN7Y @AnujaJaiman
RT @saifarash: @weatherofindia weather Kerala Clear skies,Malappuram 6.45 pm,increasing clouds with some scattered thunderstorms late
RT @pierrefitter: Beautiful golden sunset after the storm in Delhi http://t.co/DIPU19C5
RT @chetank0hli: Hope the weather at Delhi improves! Don't want another reduced-overs match for DD! DD vs CSK IPL5
After dust storm it's still raining in Delhi .. http://ow.ly/ab9LA >> Any report from Ground ?? IPL
RT @thechandramohan: First the dust storm. Now it's raining like there's no tomorrow. Wondering if the weather .. delhi
5pm, T.showers over N,S.Karnataka, Kerala, N.Andhra, N-E.Orissa, S.Jharkand, Haryana, Delhi... http://ow.ly/i/yBrK
5pm, T.showers over N,S.Karnataka, Kerala, N.Andhra, N-E.Orissa, S.Jharkand, Haryana, Delhi... http://ow.ly/i/yBrK
RT @vinodmnair2010: Hi Good evening. Here ( kerala , TVM) havey rain, very cool. Cool evening. http://ow.ly/ab8Dg
RT @aknarendranath: @weatherofindia Dust storm in Delhi. Rains could follow. (5pm)
3:30pm, METAR data shows Thunder cloud formation over Bangalore .. IPL match ... Rain threat is increasing
RT @rajugana: Baroda 2.50pm, Sunny, hot & humid. Temp 40-25C range. Some silvery cloud in the horizon. a pic http://t.co/3OgHrt7C
During next 4 days, scattered T.showers possible over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, N. Rajasthan, N. MP, Uttarpradesh and into Bihar.. Kal Baisaki
Present W.D will make weather unstable over entire N, N-W India... from Today till 15-Apr.. scattered T.showers possible in these zones.
W.D will be very active over Kashmir, Himachal till 12/13-Apr... http://ow.ly/i/yAAo
Today, T.Showers forecast for S. Karnataka .. not good news for IPL match at Bangalore !
Twin anticyclones to persist till 16-Apr and beyond !
Heavy moisture lingering over Kerala, N-W Tamilnadu and into S. Karnataka... more showers for these zones ... http://ow.ly/i/yAxP
@seeknsave >> mumbai - NO rain in sight for city till 18-Apr.. in fact temp. is going to be around 37 / 38 C from 14-Apr.
coimbatore - will have temp. around 37 deg till 15-Apr and may touch 39 / 40 after 16-Apr.. high humidity as well.. http://ow.ly/i/yAwy
@anvi22_anvi >> Today's IPL match CSK vs Delhi may be marred by T. Showers in Delhi towards evening.
12:30pm, Showers are breaking out over S.Kashmir, Himachal, Punjab and N. Rajasthan.. http://ow.ly/i/yAuT
@saifarash >> your weather reports & images will be published in our Weather website.. http://ping.fm/UEaA1 .pls contribute!
RT @aknarendranath: @weatherofindia Drizzled in Delhi around 7.30 am in Delhi. Cloudy right now.