Tuesday, November 09, 2010
India was just the target of once-Tropical Cyclone Jal on Sunday EST. Now the nation may have to contend with two more landfalling tropical cyclones in the next 10 days.
One of the upcoming tropical threats to India will likely not take place until early next week. The other danger could happen earlier, this Wednesday or Thursday, and would come from the remains of once-Tropical Cyclone Jal.
Rebirth of Tropical Cyclone Jal Possible
Tropical Cyclone Jal slammed into southeastern India on Sunday EST with the strength of a tropical storm. The cyclone then rapidly weakened over the nation's southern interior, but failed to totally dissipate.
The door will open for Jal to come back to life after it departs the southwestern coast of India today and churns over the open waters of the Arabian Sea into at least early Wednesday.
The Arabian Sea is more than sufficiently warm to allow Jal to regain, at the minimum, tropical storm strength.
If Jal fails to or is slow to redevelop, disruptive wind shear (strong winds high in the atmosphere) north and west of Jal would be the culprit.
The threat for flooding from heavy rain will exist wherever Jal makes its second landfall, even if tropical storm strength is never regained.
That second landfall could take place late Wednesday into Wednesday night EST on India's westernmost state of Gujarat. Landfall would get delayed to Thursday if Jal tracks farther north and strikes closer to the border of India and Pakistan.a